Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Farm Direction Forward - Opening Grain Market Comments soft outside markets


Below are opening comments as well as a forward from Kevin Van Trump who will be one of the speakers for next week’s grain marketing workshop that we are sponsoring in Pierre on Feb 2nd at the Ramkota at 10:00 a.m.; Ed Usset will be the other presenter.  Please give us a call or shoot us an email to RSVP for what should be a great time.

Markets are called mixed to supportive this a.m. behind a firmer overnight session; outside markets are a little weak and most calls are slightly below where we left off the overnight session at.

In the overnight session we saw corn up 3 on the old crop while new crop was off 2, beans unchanged to down a couple,  MPLS wheat was 4 higher, KC wheat was up 3, and CBOT wheat was up 5.  At 9:00 outside markets have crude down a little over a dollar a barrel, equities are weaker with the DOW down 82 points, and the US dollar is firmer up 379 on the cash index at 80.247.

Not much for new news out this a.m.  The rumors
on Argentina and Russia looking to limit exports are still out there; but so far just rumors and when you look deeper into them not everyone is convinced that it is all that bullish for Russia to have such a massive supply.

Basis remains very firm for most of the grains but both spring wheat and winter wheat did see spot bids take a step back yesterday.  We are also very close to levels where I think producer start selling plenty of corn; which could limit that or stall that basis rally at any time.  Ethanol margins are poor which also should limit basis strength at some point.  One of the sources I read this a.m. noted ethanol crush margins a negative 20-30 cents as they commented that ethanol has only advanced 6 cents a gallon during corn’s 40 cent or so rally.  Longer term we really don’t want to see demand slip at all; because we are probably planting a huge amount of corn and with good weather some of the “experts” are talking we could see 160-170 type yields with carry out numbers for next year near 1.5-2.0 billion bushels or more.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Thanks

Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)




This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.

From: Kevin Van Trump [mailto:info@farmdirection.com]
Sent: Wednesday, January 25, 2012 7:20 AM
To: CO-Pierre, Jeremey Frost
Subject: 01/25 Farm Direction - VanTrump Report


WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 25, 2012
Printable Copy
Morning Summary: Most in the trade will be eagerly awaiting the Fed's announcement scheduled to be released today at 1:30pm CST, followed by Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference at 3:15pm CST. As I said yesterday, "politics" seem to be trumping "fundamentals" right now so be cautious!
Ethanol now has some "politically" promising news that the market needs to digest as the White House is essentially guaranteed to be the home of a strong supporter for ethanol through 2016. If you think about it, President Barak Obama carried Iowa in 2008 by being a strong proponent of ethanol. Now with Rick Perry and John Huntsman official out of the Republican race we are now left with Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (the three primary winners) who are all considered certified ethanol supporters. This certainly helps ease some of the worries and concerns the funds may have had.
Argentine corn export ban rumors had the trade a little nervous yesterday. There were some "unsubstantiated" rumors circulating in the trade early yesterday in regards to Argentina possibly limiting or banning corn exports, because of their recent production setbacks. From what I have heard the Argentine government has denied all such accusations. I will keep you posted if I hear differently. It seems a little far fetched when you consider the fact the Argentine government actually has to issue export licenses for all grain leaving the country anyway. Point being, if they wanted to reduce exports, they simply wouldn't approve or issue any new licenses.
Russian export tariffs were also the topic of discussion and provided wheat with a little boost in the near-term contracts. Basically, Russia could cap exports at 2 million metric tons per month by throwing a 30% tariff on anything beyond that level. Russian insiders with "SoveCon" seem to be thinking that if exports continue at the same pace during February and March, we might see the "special" tariff regulations triggered. I am not so sure this is as bullish as some may have initially thought. Understand that to make it happen Russian exports would have to set a new record (that is not bullish). Along with this, keep in mind that an additional 7 million metric tons of wheat from the Russian State Reserves could be dumped on their domestic marketplace if wheat prices continue to push higher (which is also not bullish).
The market is definitely scary right here as it could quickly go $1 in either direction. If the weather improves and South America is able to gain ground on their second crop planting, I would suspect a break of some type is in order. On the flip side, if the weather remains hot and dry we are going to continue to add premium. With ample cash sales booked and a good floor in place, I am willing to bet a "small" portion of our 2012 production on the crop in South America getting smaller. The key word here is "small."
While I believe the market has room to work higher on South American weather, I am still concerned about the spike in planted acres here in the US. My concern is if the current weather models play out the way they are shaping up, we could be looking at an extremely early start to planting season in the Northern Corn Belt. If this ends up being the case, you have to believe the "bears" will have their day in the sun and talk of 95 million plus corn acres will be the theme...the markets will obviously feel the pain. There is certainly the question if enough corn seed will be available this early, but that is an entirely different debate. Just understand that if the market starts to focus on early US planting potential some the tides could quickly change. If this were to occur I would guess it would happen around the late Feb or early March time frame.
As "risk-managers" we have to keep our eyes further down the road. Yes, South American weather is a concern and their crop is definitely shrinking, but beyond that point the market will begin to focus on US planting intentions, where the theme seems to be "who can throw out the highest number..." I am NOT saying we will plant more than 95 million acres, but just the thought of planting more than this will weigh on the trade. Have a game plan and pull the trigger when the opportunity presents itself.
There is also now talk circulating amongst a few very influential traders that "soybeans" are starting to act a little tired. In fact, several have become openly "bearish" on thoughts of improved weather coming down pipe in South America, and lack of global "demand" type news that will be needed to stoke the bullish flames.
With the markets currently trading on "supply-side" fears, there is a sense that we may very quickly run out of "bullish" supply-side news. They make a very strong case, and honoring their years of wisdom, I am going to temporarily throttle back my bullish soybean rating. I am NOT turning bearish the trade, but simply moving back to a more "neutral/bullish" type position. We have made a great run the past several session, and I was hoping we could get to $12.50 in the November soybean contract to make some additional cash sales. Were going to need some help to get there, so keep your fingers crossed.
From a technical perspective the 100-Day moving average in March corn is now in play at around $6.45. March soybeans actually traded right up to the 100-day moving average at 12.29^4 yesterday. This puts us at a serious teetering point. The markets have failed the 100-day moving average almost every time the past several months. In fact corn hasn't closed above the 100 day-moving-average since mid-September. The takeaway is we could see heavy technical resistance ahead. If however we can muster up enough steam to bust through these areas we may see the mindset of the trend following funds quickly change to a more bullish perspective.
My gut is telling me to reduce your bullish bets and let the larger spec players battle it out. I am also concerned about so many "political" balls being in the air at this juncture. As we all know, these could easily bounce in any direction. Hopefully you have reduced your net exposure and have a chunk of your 2012 production locked in.
I know a majority of the advisors are extremely "bearish" right now, I am just not on that page. Global wheat prices are getting closer to levels where the US can compete with French and Russian wheat, therefor I am thinking we might actually see the next Egyptian tender originate out of the US. In addition, the cash corn basis is red hot and the South American crop still has many unanswered questions. China is looking to ease and QE3 here at home is not out of the question. Net-net, in my opinion there are just too many bullish cards in the deck to try and pick a short-term top in these markets. The "risk-on" theme seems to becoming back in favor, and I doubt you will get very far trying to swim upstream.
Remember who moves the markets in today's world. The traditional Ag traders of old tend to be extremely early to the party. Fund mangers have many more dials to turn and coordinates to equate before they can pull a "Crazy Ivan" type maneuver and turn their respective ship on a dime. There are many more dynamics in play than the traditional supply & demand numbers of old. Yes, eventually the market rebounds off the turnbuckle and gravitates back towards our most basic fundamentals (supply & demand), but only to be thrown in a new direction by unconventional fund type influence. Just make sure you are looking at all of the gadgets, levers and pulleys that have been installed so you do not get caught in this elaborate "mouse trap."
When I was late to practice my coach used to always tell me, "Trump...the early bird gets the worm." I used to say, but Coach "The second mouse always gets the cheese..." As you can imagine I generally had to run a little extra for my creativeness, but you have to admit I had a very good point! Keep this in mind when trading in our new found environment.
I received an interesting Trivia Question a while back in regards to the corn market that I feel is fitting for today's discussion about how much the markets have changed!
Q. During the five year period pre-2007, how many times did the corn market make a "limit" move in either direction on the day of a USDA report (and remember limits were much lower then)?
A. For those of you that guessed "zero," you were correct. Not only did the market NOT post a "limit" move, only once did it legitimately challenge limits with a $0.17 cent rally back in 2004. WOW how times have changed.
For producers the takeaway is, "if you can not take the heat get out of the kitchen." In other words, if you can not afford to be a part of the extreme volatility the funds are placing upon the marketplace, then you need to be locking in profits when they present themselves and moving to the sideline. Only take risk on the number of bushels you can comfortably hold through a $4 handle in corn, and a $10 handle in soy. It is like playing in a high-stakes poker game with $20 and the rest of the players at the table have thousands...it just never turns out very well. On the flip side, if you have the storage and your cash-flow is adequate, play the game and patiently wait for the right hand to come along.
If you are a spec, understand that it takes the funds a while to maneuver, they not only have to manage positions in corn, but often times positions in various other macro markets as well. Reallocations, Redemptions and Rebalancing are now the terms of our times. It is insanely trying to watch the traditional "fundamentals" flip-flop before our very eyes in the massive wakes the funds are creating in these waters. Patience is a must in order to stay out of their highly dangerous crosscurrents.
*As for today a bearish Q4 GDP number was released in the UK and it weighed on the European markets. In return the US dollar has seen some renewed buying and is providing a little "outside" market headwind. I would have to imagine an rally today in the grain and soy complex will be met with heavy technical resistance and some profit taking. Unless we get some new bullish data to digest, I would suspect a lower close ahead of the Fed announcement this afternoon.
*Lets not forget "Davos" kicks off today! For those who don't know, Davos is a mountain resort in Graub√ľnden, in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland. Each year the "World Economic Forum" (WEF) host an annual meeting of global political and business elites (often referred to simply as "Davos"). The World Economic Forum (WEF) is actually a Swiss non-profit foundation, based in Geneva. It describes itself as an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. The Forum is best known for its annual meeting in Davos each year. The meeting brings together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders, selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues facing the world, including health, food, energy and the environment. The 2012 meeting is scheduled to run from January 25-29, with the theme "The Great Transformation: Shaping New Models." I doubt there will be much market shaking news coming from this event, but it is always interesting to hear what the world's most elite are thinking.

Northwest Tennessee - This past year was very interesting to say the least. On May 15, I rowed a boat over every acre I own that was completely under water, so you can tell we had an abnormally wet spring. At that point in time, I thought maybe a crop for this production year may be out of the question. The thing that I was fortunate on was the fact that the water didn't have real heavy currents, so there weren’t major ruts to repair. I ended up getting my corn in around mid-May and it struggled early, not looking good at all. The yields suffered terribly being lower 50 bpa taking them to 150 bpa. I did not get beans planted until August 1st and I thought about not even planting them but went ahead. The beans struggled but in the end yielded anywhere from 30 to 55 bpa with the normal average at 40 bpa. My biggest problem here lately has been the battle with the pigweed that is trying to take over and nothing seems to kill it. I love reading Kevin's report!
Central Nebraska - We are right here off the North Platte River where we get a good amount of flooding generally and last spring was no exception. However, that’s not really what causes us the most problems. It’s the hail we got to watch out for. I produce mainly white corn and a little yellow for Frito Lay and we have a pretty good deal set up with them. We will sign contracts for most of my new crop in February which gives us a good guarantee. I then still get to sell through a local buyer here and chose my delivery months and basis so it allows me some freedom on the timing of my marketing. As far as production goes, it wasn’t too bad of a year. Like I said, the wet spring made it difficult to get in the field. Once in, we had a couple storms that dropped some major hail that took probably 15 bushels off my 200 average. As you know, we are all irrigated and water is also a big issue for us. I’m blessed to farm so close to the river as many times the flooding helps the subsoil moisture on my land, but to grow 185 bushels of corn, it takes 35 wells that ran 24/7 from the beginning of June till September. Looking forward to the Marketing Seminar in Kansas City in February and meeting everybody there!
North Central Kansas - I farm dry land soybeans and winter wheat. We had 24 days over 100 degrees this summer and a down pour before and early freeze my soybean yields were well below normal with a high of 10 bushels down to 3.2 bushel per acre with an overall average of 3.86 very disappointing. A lot of the pods had shattered and the moisture measured an average of 9.72% with a test weight average of 54.82 lbs. per bushel. I’m not looking forward to mudding out the remainder of the crop but it has to be done. This was the worst crop in my 35 years farming. I’ll get ‘m next year though! Hay and corn trucks coming south from the north will keep the highways very busy. I have been blessed with some recent rains to put us at 50%-75% of annual rainfall. I need another 6"-8" of moisture to reach last year's wheat yield potential. There is very little wheat pasture for cattle. Irrigated row crop bookings, have all been short season corn or low population/full maturity for next year. No beans have been booked for next year's planting intentions. No dry land corn or dry land beans have been booked due to lack of subsoil moisture.
East Central Missouri - I farm just about an hour from your office, basically straight East of Kansas City. Corn and beans are my expertise but occasionally I throw a little wheat down in pivot corners just for sh*ts and giggles. This year heat during pollination was the culprit for most of the yield drags, but overall we made out okay. One thing I have been trying the last few years is side dressing all my corn rather than putting everything on prior. We basically go half before and half side dressing. To give you an idea we made 185 and 53 in corn and beans, compared to 200 and 60 average, so you won't hear me complain too much. It's crazy the amount of days we have seen here that have been over 50 degrees in December and January, winter has been mild to say the least. This winter has been nice but we still need a little moisture, as much as I hate to say it, a little rainy, snowy weather would be good for us. We were all geared up to push snow this winter and the tractor hasn't left the shed. About the only precipitation we have seen this year is a little rain in a lightning storm that blew through one of those days it was over 60 degrees.
  • Argentine agronomist Susana Merlo, a former agriculture subsecretary, is predicting a 2011/12 corn harvest of between 17 million and 18 million tonnes and a soy crop of just 39 million tons. This is insanely low, but I thought I would throw it out.
  • Argentine insider throwing out estimates that Soy crop could be down to 35.6 bushels per acre and Corn down to 87.5 bushels per acre.
  • Japan in the market looking for 300,000 tons of feed wheat.
  • Hearing talk that the corn basis continues to be on fire. Decatur corn is 40 over and the Memphis basis is 50 over.
  • Some much-needed rain is headed for Texas and the Arklatex region, but it may come at the cost of some damaging thunderstorms. It's not out of the question that a few spots could experience 4 inches of rain due to showers and storms repeating over the same area. The heavy rain is good news for those still reeling from a prolonged, severe drought. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than 62% of Texas is still classified as being in a 'severe' or 'exceptional' drought.
  • The fellows at Goldman Sachs seem to be on the same page as Informa, thinking that corn prices will dramatically fall under pressure during the 2012 US harvest.
  • I have heard South American grain and soy guru "Dr. Cordonnier" has total South American corn production at 79.8 million meter tons, down 2.7% from last year, and total soybean production at 128.4 million metric tons, down 5.5% from year ago.
  • The Food and Agriculture Organization expects Argentina to harvest 21.4 million metric tons of corn in 2012, after early-planted crops were affected most by a heatwave during their flowering period
  • Oil World is on the same page reducing their Argentine soy crop by 1.5 million metric tons to 48.5. While actually raising their Brazil soybean estimates by 1 million.
  • USDA reporting that in 2011, US cows produced more than 22.8 billion gallons of milk, nearly 400 million more than in 2010.
  • Mexico's drought continues to worry the Mexican government. Talk now is that Mexico lost about 3 million acres and about 50,000 cattle last year, and the problem looks to be intensifying. There are estimates that show just in the state of Zacatecas alone some 2.5 million acres of soybeans may not be harvested this year.
  • Government believes Russian embargo of Brazilian meat is near the end.
  • Euro Zone PMI data was better than most had been anticipating, and there are now signs of more normal growth being digested by economic analyst.
  • There continues to be fear in the marketplace that Greece will eventually default. Many good sources now believe it will happen before this summer.
  • Stats from CNN showing that under current Washington administration the price of gas has jumped by 83%, ground beef by 24%, and bacon 22%....interesting!
  • Don't forget February Ag Options expire this Friday.
  • Facebook private trades supposedly halted for 3 days this week. Companies typically tend to suspend any and all trades ahead of IPO filings...
  • CME reporting that world investments in gold reached a record $80 billion, up more than 20% on 2010. Physical forms of investment drove this record, particularly net bar purchases at almost 1,200 metric tons up more than 33%.
  • Apple once again blows away earnings! Now has an estimated $100 billion in cash reserves.
  • Blackstone Real Estate Advisors, has formed funds to buy distressed real-estate and non-distressed properties. In fact Blackstone Group LP (BX.N) has raised more than $6 billion for a new real estate opportunity fund!
429 Bushels of Corn Per Acre!
David Hula, of Charles City, Virginia recently recorded the highest overall corn yield of 429.02 bushels per acre on a 43 acre field to win the National Corn Growers Association "Corn Yield Contest." The fact that he achieved such an outstanding yield in the wake of an extremely odd growing season makes this number even more unbelievable. The story is there was more "sunlight" than there had been in previous years and that actually helped to enhance the photosynthesis and ultimately the overall yield. Obviously, David does his homework and performs countless soil test throughout the year, and adds just the right amount of fertilizer, nutrients and applications to his crop. It is being reported that he used Pioneer® brand P2088HR to win first place in the "No-Till/Strip-Till" Irrigated category. David also admitted to trying some some new technology this year using Stoller’s "Bio-Forge" and "X-Tra Power." I also found it interesting that David was able to pull off extremely good yields in several of his fields with as little as 1 pound of nitrogen per bushel yielded. From what I am being told David actually farms fields that were first cultivated by colonist in Jamestown back in the early 1600s. The "Pamunkey" soils are considered a fine-loamy, sandy mixed soil that have been producing fantastic crops for hundreds of years. It is interesting to think that the ground you farm may have actually been where Pocahontas saved Captain John Smiths life. I should note that the top three finishers were all "irrigated," and all in the "South." This is NOT traditionally the case since most consider corn production in the south to be subject to extreme heat. What is amazing is that if you took the top three yielders in six categories: irrigated and non-irrigated, conventional till and no till/ridge till, and in both A and AA regions, the average corn yield was 313 bushels per acre. WOW! Here is link provided by "Stoller Technologies" that helps explain more about how they helped Hula increase his production:
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2012/1/prweb9106270.htm

Waterbeds for Dairy Cows???
I'm sure many of you have seen the commercials that basically imply the best milk comes from "Real California Cows." I'm guessing the Ohio Dairy Cows may NOW have a reason to disagree. I have heard talk from several in the trade that a type of "waterbed" is being placed in dairy barn stalls for the cows to lay on. From what I can gather these stalls have been modified with two water filled bladders creating a waterbed type feel for each cow. This may sound strange to those of us here at home, but I have been told there are some Europeans who have been using similar type techniques for the past 15-20 years. The claim to fame is that it helps drastically reduce the white blood cell count. The design is said to take the pressure off the front knees and rear hocks, that getting up and down and laying for long periods of time will create. Currently the US allows no more then a count of 750,000 cells per milliliter while European standards are 400,000/milliliter. There are some farmers who claim after adding the beds they have been able to cut their somatic cell count in half. I am told these water beds cost in the neighborhood of $300, and are thought to pay for themselves in about 3 years or less. When I first heard about this, I though the old boy was pulling my leg, and setting me up to be the butt of yet another farm joke. Wouldn't have ever guessed. Here is a short video I found that might help you become a believer as well.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/living/2012/01/19/dnt-cows-sleep-on-waterbeds.wjw


Uranium: An Investment You May Want To Consider
Uranium stocks as of late have really been popping, and the "Global X Uranium" ETF with the symbol "URA" is up over 20% already in 2012. I am hearing some talk inside the trade that this particular ETF has a chance to double within the next 12-18 months. If you recall, Uranium took a huge hit following the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster this past year. After the world watched the fallout from the Japanese tsunami many investors abandoned nuclear power, and in
particular Uranium. This has driven Uranium stocks in many cases to 52 week lows. Obviously the press ran with the story, and jumped all over the role of nuclear energy for our future. Not once have the talking heads mentioned that reactors now being built are portable, economical and most of all safe. The two biggest players, that are counting on nuclear power for the future, are in fact China and India. I am hearing that both China and India are poised to increase uranium consumption by more than 45% in order to fuel five of the world’s largest atomic-power projects. Along with this, some believe China could be attempting to actually corner the uranium market. China continues to play the role of "smart money" aggressively acquiring uranium and uranium mines to ensure it has the fuel for its ambitious nuclear power agenda. Given the geopolitical conditions -- China certainly has incentive to build their uranium stockpile in an an aggressive fashion. Further solidifying my belief, "China’s Nuclear Energy Association" recently came out and stated it will increase atomic capacity by eightfold by 2020. In a similar note India’s Atomic Energy Commission has commented it will raise its production by as much as 13 times by 2030. The bottom-line is that the world needs nuclear power and there is no effective substitute in sight; fossil fuels are declining in availability and unpopular due to CO2 emissions, while solar and wind simply do not meet the four imperatives that energy sources must meet (which basically mean energy sources need to be cheap and scalable). I am of the belief that time heals most all wounds, therefore I would have to imagine Uranium will soon come back into favor. What might have been the worst performing ETF in 2011 now has the potential to be one of the best performing. In case you are interested "URA" is trading today at $10.55, the 52 week trading range is $7.06 to $22.42.
Will Greece Ultimately "Tap-Out" or Escape This Deadly Financial Submission Hold?
As the IMF, ECB and European debt crisis continue to be on the minds of most global investors, GREECE may be soon become the the proverbial "straw" that breaks the camels back. All eyes are starting to quickly focus on the March 20th bond repayment date. In order for Greece to make these payments and avoid a "default," talks must result in a resolution, then be confirmed prior to this drop dead date. If some type of an agreement can be manufactured, it will go a long ways towards kicking the can further down the road.

From what I am hearing, Greece needs to come up with about $18.5 million in order to meet the upcoming bond repayments that are due on March 20th. Some insiders are thinking, even if Greece is somehow able to make this round of payments it will only be a matter of time until they ultimately "default." I find myself in this camp as well, and feel that unless the EU leaders can get extremely creative a "default" is inevitable. I have listed below the most obvious outcomes:
  • Greece asks those who have lent them money or purchased their bonds to give them a reprieve. Essentially they will be asking the German, French and American banks to let them off the hook. For example if Greece owes someone $100 million at 10% interest, they will be wanting them to reduce the principal owed by at least 50%, and reduce the interest rate to below 5%. There are a couple of big problems with this. Not only would the banks who purchased the Greek bonds or loaned them the money have to take a huge hit, but countries like Italy, Portugal, Ireland, etc... would quickly cry foul and ask for the same type of privileges. Neither Europe nor the world could handle this kind of "default." If this somehow would be agreed upon the world would still view it as a "default." In technical terms you might be able to call it a voluntary "default" or "restructuring." In my opinion it is still a "default." Not being able to pay back a loan at the terms you agreed upon.
  • Greece tells the world they can no longer make the payments and will be ending the party for everyone involved. Simply stated Greece would be "bankrupt." This would initially send shockwaves through the investment world, and many banks would be rocked. I still contend however an EU balance sheet without the debt load of Greece would be a remarked improvement in the long-term. This would obviously be viewed as full fledge "default."
  • Greece contends they are jammed up because they can NOT print their way out this mess. Here in the US or in Japan we can simply print more money and extend the problems further and further down the road, and in many cases simply use our own currency to make the payments. Since Greece is part of the EU, the only way they could print more money would be to leave the EU. The problem is if Greece leaves the EU no one will loan them any money, and will not be willing to trade with them for many years to come. This would essentially isolate Greece from the rest of the world and leave their economy in much worse condition than it currently is in.
As you can see, there is no "good" option left on the board for Greece or for those holding Greek debt. Something completely creative and well outside our traditional thought process will need to occur for this to not end badly. The next 45-days will be interesting as Greece tries find some wiggle room in what appears to be a deadly financial submission hold. You can call it an arm-bar, guillotine, or kimura, but anyway you slice it, I am looking fro Greece to ultimately "Tap-Out."
1937 – “The Guiding Light” debuts on NBC radio from Chicago. In 1952 it moves to CBS television, where it remains until Sept. 18, 2009. “The Guiding Light” or “GL” is an American TV soap opera that is credited by the Guinness Book of World Records as the longest running drama in TV and radio history. The show's title refers to a lamp in the study of Reverend Dr. John Ruthledge, a major character when “The Guiding Light” debuted in 1937, that family and residents could see as a sign for them to find help when needed. GL is also among the longest running broadcast programs in history of any kind, across radio media for 15 years, and then television media for 57 years, being first broadcast five days after President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s second inauguration. On April 1, 2009, CBS announced that it canceled “Guiding Light” because of low ratings. The show taped its final scenes on August 11, 2009, and its final episode aired on September 18, 2009. On October 5, 2009, CBS replaced “Guiding Light” with an hour-long revival of “Let’s Make a Deal,” hosted by Wayne Brady.
1993 – Five people are shot outside the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia resulting in two murders. On January 25, 1993 two CIA employees were killed and three others wounded. The perpetrator, Aimal Qazi, shot the CIA employees in their cars as they were waiting at a stoplight. Qazi was reportedly angry from watching news reports of attacks on Muslims. He had stated his motive was that he was, "angry with the policy of the U.S. government in the Middle East, particularly toward the Palestinian people." After the shooting Qazi fled the country and was placed on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list, sparking a 4-year international manhunt. Qazi was captured by FBI agents in Pakistan in 1997 and brought back to the United States to stand trial. Qazi admitted that he shot the victims of the attack, and was subsequently found guilty of capital and first-degree murder, and was executed by lethal injection in 2002.
1996 – Billy Bailey became the last person to be hanged in the United States of America. In 1979, Bailey was assigned to the Plummer House, (a work release facility in Wilmington, Delaware), but soon escaped. He ended up at the home of his foster sister (Sue Ann Coker) and her husband (Charles Coker). Bailey and Charles Coker went on an errand in Coker's truck. Bailey asked Coker to stop at a liquor store. Bailey entered the store and robbed the clerk at gunpoint, emerging from the store with a pistol in one hand and a bottle in the other. Bailey told Coker that the police would be arriving and asked to be dropped at Lambertson's Corner, about 1.5 miles away. Once there, Bailey entered the farmhouse of Gilbert Lambertson, aged 80, and his wife, Clara Lambertson, aged 73. Bailey shot Gilbert Lambertson twice in the chest with a pistol and once in the head with the Lambertsons' shotgun. Then he shot Clara Lambertson once in the shoulder with the pistol and once each in the abdomen and neck with the shotgun, killing both victims. A Delaware State Police helicopter spotted Bailey as he ran across the Lambertsons' field. He attempted to shoot the helicopter co-pilot with the pistol and was soon arrested. Bailey was found guilty of the murders, and Bailey was sentenced to be hanged by his neck until he was dead. Although Bailey had been sentenced to hang, because the method of execution in Delaware had been changed to lethal injection, he had the option of choosing that method. Bailey refused to accept lethal injection, telling a visitor "I'm not going to let them put me to sleep." Bailey became only the third person to be hanged in the United States since 1965 (the previous 2 were Charles Rodman Campbell and Westley Allan Dodd, both in Washington) and the first hanged in Delaware in 50 years.
2004 – Opportunity Rover (MER-B) lands on the surface of Mars. MER-B is a robotic rover on the planet Mars. It has been active since 2004, and is the remaining rover in NASA’s ongoing Mars Exploration Rover Mission. MER-B was launched from Earth on July 7, 2004, three weeks after its twin, Spirit (MER-A), touched down on the other side of the planet. MER-B has continued to function effectively 30 times longer than its planned mission. MER-B has continued to perform extensive geological analysis of Martian rocks and planetary surface features. Meanwhile, its twin, MER-A, became immobile in 2009 and in 2010 ceased communications.
January 25 - The Next Fed Meeting - This one could will host a Bernanke press conference after the meeting.
January 31 - Florida Primary
February 2 - Groundhog Day: Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog will make his spring prediction at daybreak. Approximately 7:25 am EST.
February 9 - USDA Crop Production Report
February 15 – 18 - National Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, KY. Come by and visit us at Booth# 404E in the North Wing.
February 16 - USDA Crop Value Annual Summary
February 19 - Greek Parliamentary Elections
February 20 - Presidents Day (Markets are Closed)
February 21 -Fat Tuesday: Marks the official start of the 2012 Mardi Gras in New Orleans, LA.
February 24 - Agri Summit 2012 Come hear Kevin Van Trump and special guests speak live in Kansas City regarding next years marketing.
February 29 - Leap Day: The extra day that occurs once every four years.


CORN MARCH 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - NEUTRAL
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $7.49
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $7.05
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $6.66
Previous Close $6.30^2
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $5.44
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $5.40
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $5.02
SOYBEANS MARCH 2012 CONTRACT TECHNICAL LEVELS - NEUTRAL
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $14.35
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $13.55
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $12.70
Previous Close $12.22^0
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $10.99
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $9.94
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $ 9.18
WHEAT MARCH 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - BEARISH
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $9.24^4
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $8.07
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $6.75
Previous Close $6.33^4
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $5.41
• Intermediate SupportLevel#2 @ $5.02
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $4.44
CATTLE FEBRUARY 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - BULLISH
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $130.25
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $128.10
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $126.65
Previous Close $125.800
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $116.50
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $112.10
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $108.00
HOGS FEBRUARY 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - BULLISH
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $92.50
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $89.50
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $86.80
Previous Close $85.975
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $81.90
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $79.30
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $76.52
CRUDE OIL MARCH 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - BULLISH
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $116.20
• IntermediateResistance Level #2 @ $108.50
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $105.30
Previous Close $99.16
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $84.10
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $74.50
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $67.05
S&P 500 MARCH 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - NEUTRAL
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ 1,441
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ 1,354
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ 1,335
Previous Close 1,311.50
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ 1,064
• IntermediateSupport Level #2 @ 1,001
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ 855
“I am a recent subscriber to Kevin’s newsletter, but I’m a long-time reader of many other high-profile marketing services. I am particularly impressed with the thorough manner in which Kevin evaluates every economic aspect, both nationally and internationally, that influences commodity prices. His analysis and conclusions are highly thought out and conveyed in layman’s terms so that the reader can comprehend the numerous and often complex interrelationships that impact the markets. Kevin is a real attribute to the agricultural sector.”
A.M., FDIC
“As a national federal farm policy administrator and commodity producer, I find it critical to keep updated with what is going on in the real world of agriculture and with the domestic and global markets. Of all the services I’ve have been privy to or have subscribed to over the past 20 years I’ve found in the past several months of engaging in your “Farm Direction” services to be the best perception and analysis of what is really happening in today’s world. Not only here in the United States, but across the globe as well. US farmers need this type of help and information to assist them in their daily efforts. I commend you for a job well done. Please let me know if I can ever be of any help or assistance to you in the future…”
L.T., Assistant Deputy Administrator for Farm Programs USDA
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Grain Marketing Terms
"Not To Trade, is often considered a good trading decision..."
"First Rule of HOLES: When you are in one stop digging..."
"Every looser in Vegas, always walks away from the table thinking he could have done better, the winners on the other hand leave while on top..."
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered..."
I'm more of a long-term player, therefore you will not see me give many short-term suggestions or trade ideas. One of my most important rules is that I always follow my long-term direction. Therefore, as long as I am "bullish" a market I will only play that particular market in one of three ways.
  • Option #1 - Conservatively long.
  • Option #2 - Aggressively long.
  • Option #3 - Sitting on the sideline.
I never initiate a "short" position in a
market that I am "bullish" longer-term, nor do I initiate a "long" position in a market I am "bearish" longer-term.



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