Morning
Summary: Most
in the trade will be eagerly awaiting the Fed's announcement scheduled to
be released today at 1:30pm CST, followed by Fed Chairman Bernanke's press
conference at 3:15pm CST. As I said yesterday, "politics" seem to
be trumping "fundamentals" right now so be cautious!
Ethanol now has some
"politically" promising news that the market needs to digest as
the White House is essentially guaranteed to be the home of a strong
supporter for ethanol through 2016. If you think about it, President Barak
Obama carried Iowa in 2008 by being a strong proponent of ethanol. Now with
Rick Perry and John Huntsman official out of the Republican race we are now
left with Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (the three primary
winners) who are all considered certified ethanol supporters. This
certainly helps ease some of the worries and concerns the funds may have
had.
Argentine corn export
ban rumors had the trade a little nervous yesterday. There were some
"unsubstantiated" rumors circulating in the trade early yesterday
in regards to Argentina possibly limiting or banning corn exports, because
of their recent production setbacks. From what I have heard the Argentine
government has denied all such accusations. I will keep you posted if I
hear differently. It seems a little far fetched when you consider the fact
the Argentine government actually has to issue export licenses for all
grain leaving the country anyway. Point being, if they wanted to reduce
exports, they simply wouldn't approve or issue any new licenses.
Russian export tariffs
were also the topic of discussion and provided wheat with a little boost in
the near-term contracts. Basically, Russia could cap exports at 2 million
metric tons per month by throwing a 30% tariff on anything beyond that
level. Russian insiders with "SoveCon" seem to be thinking that
if exports continue at the same pace during February and March, we might
see the "special" tariff regulations triggered. I am not so sure
this is as bullish as some may have initially thought. Understand that to
make it happen Russian exports would have to set a new record (that is not
bullish). Along with this, keep in mind that an additional 7 million metric
tons of wheat from the Russian State Reserves could be dumped on their
domestic marketplace if wheat prices continue to push higher (which is also
not bullish).
The market is
definitely scary right here as it could quickly go $1 in either direction.
If the weather improves and South America is able to gain ground on their
second crop planting, I would suspect a break of some type is in order. On
the flip side, if the weather remains hot and dry we are going to continue
to add premium. With ample cash sales booked and a good floor in place, I
am willing to bet a "small" portion of our 2012 production on the
crop in South America getting smaller. The key word here is
"small."
While I believe the
market has room to work higher on South American weather, I am still
concerned about the spike in planted acres here in the US. My concern is if
the current weather models play out the way they are shaping up, we could
be looking at an extremely early start to planting season in the Northern
Corn Belt. If this ends up being the case, you have to believe the
"bears" will have their day in the sun and talk of 95 million
plus corn acres will be the theme...the markets will obviously feel the
pain. There is certainly the question if enough corn seed will be available
this early, but that is an entirely different debate. Just understand that
if the market starts to focus on early US planting potential some the tides
could quickly change. If this were to occur I would guess it would happen
around the late Feb or early March time frame.
As
"risk-managers" we have to keep our eyes further down the road. Yes,
South American weather is a concern and their crop is definitely shrinking,
but beyond that point the market will begin to focus on US planting
intentions, where the theme seems to be "who can throw out the highest
number..." I am NOT saying we will plant more than 95 million acres,
but just the thought of planting more than this will weigh on the trade.
Have a game plan and pull the trigger when the opportunity presents itself.
There is also now talk
circulating amongst a few very influential traders that
"soybeans" are starting to act a little tired. In fact, several
have become openly "bearish" on thoughts of improved weather
coming down pipe in South America, and lack of global "demand"
type news that will be needed to stoke the bullish flames.
With the markets
currently trading on "supply-side" fears, there is a sense that
we may very quickly run out of "bullish" supply-side news. They
make a very strong case, and honoring their years of wisdom, I am going to
temporarily throttle back my bullish soybean rating. I am NOT turning
bearish the trade, but simply moving back to a more
"neutral/bullish" type position. We have made a great run the
past several session, and I was hoping we could get to $12.50 in the
November soybean contract to make some additional cash sales. Were going to
need some help to get there, so keep your fingers crossed.
From a technical
perspective the 100-Day moving average in March corn is now in play at
around $6.45. March soybeans actually traded right up to the 100-day moving
average at 12.29^4 yesterday. This puts us at a serious teetering point.
The markets have failed the 100-day moving average almost every time the
past several months. In fact corn hasn't closed above the 100
day-moving-average since mid-September. The takeaway is we could see heavy
technical resistance ahead. If however we can muster up enough steam to
bust through these areas we may see the mindset of the trend following
funds quickly change to a more bullish perspective.
My gut is telling me to
reduce your bullish bets and let the larger spec players battle it out. I
am also concerned about so many "political" balls being in the
air at this juncture. As we all know, these could easily bounce in any
direction. Hopefully you have reduced your net exposure and have a chunk of
your 2012 production locked in.
I know a majority of
the advisors are extremely "bearish" right now, I am just not on
that page. Global wheat prices are getting closer to levels where the US
can compete with French and Russian wheat, therefor I am thinking we might
actually see the next Egyptian tender originate out of the US. In addition,
the cash corn basis is red hot and the South American crop still has many
unanswered questions. China is looking to ease and QE3 here at home is not
out of the question. Net-net, in my opinion there are just too many bullish
cards in the deck to try and pick a short-term top in these markets. The
"risk-on" theme seems to becoming back in favor, and I doubt you
will get very far trying to swim upstream.
Remember who moves the
markets in today's world. The traditional Ag traders of old tend to be
extremely early to the party. Fund mangers have many more dials to turn and
coordinates to equate before they can pull a "Crazy Ivan" type
maneuver and turn their respective ship on a dime. There are many more
dynamics in play than the traditional supply & demand numbers of old.
Yes, eventually the market rebounds off the turnbuckle and gravitates back
towards our most basic fundamentals (supply & demand), but only to be
thrown in a new direction by unconventional fund type influence. Just make
sure you are looking at all of the gadgets, levers and pulleys that have
been installed so you do not get caught in this elaborate "mouse
trap."
When I was late to
practice my coach used to always tell me, "Trump...the early bird gets
the worm." I used to say, but Coach "The second mouse always gets
the cheese..." As you can imagine I generally had to run a little
extra for my creativeness, but you have to admit I had a very good point!
Keep this in mind when trading in our new found environment.
I received an
interesting Trivia Question a while back in regards to the corn market that
I feel is fitting for today's discussion about how much the markets have
changed!
Q. During the five year period
pre-2007, how many times did the corn market make a "limit" move
in either direction on the day of a USDA report (and remember limits were
much lower then)?
A. For those of you that guessed
"zero," you were correct. Not only did the market NOT post a
"limit" move, only once did it legitimately challenge limits with
a $0.17 cent rally back in 2004. WOW how times have changed.
For producers the
takeaway is, "if you can not take the heat get out of the kitchen."
In other words, if you can not afford to be a part of the extreme
volatility the funds are placing upon the marketplace, then you need to be
locking in profits when they present themselves and moving to the sideline.
Only take risk on the number of bushels you can comfortably hold through a
$4 handle in corn, and a $10 handle in soy. It is like playing in a
high-stakes poker game with $20 and the rest of the players at the table
have thousands...it just never turns out very well. On the flip side, if
you have the storage and your cash-flow is adequate, play the game and
patiently wait for the right hand to come along.
If you are a spec,
understand that it takes the funds a while to maneuver, they not only have
to manage positions in corn, but often times positions in various other
macro markets as well. Reallocations, Redemptions and Rebalancing are now
the terms of our times. It is insanely trying to watch the traditional
"fundamentals" flip-flop before our very eyes in the massive wakes
the funds are creating in these waters. Patience is a must in order to stay
out of their highly dangerous crosscurrents.
*As for today a bearish
Q4 GDP number was released in the UK and it weighed on the European
markets. In return the US dollar has seen some renewed buying and is
providing a little "outside" market headwind. I would have to
imagine an rally today in the grain and soy complex will be met with heavy
technical resistance and some profit taking. Unless we get some new bullish
data to digest, I would suspect a lower close ahead of the Fed announcement
this afternoon.
*Lets not forget
"Davos" kicks off today! For those who don't know, Davos is a
mountain resort in Graubünden, in the eastern Alps region of Switzerland.
Each year the "World Economic Forum" (WEF) host an annual meeting
of global political and business elites (often referred to simply as
"Davos"). The World Economic Forum (WEF) is actually a Swiss
non-profit foundation, based in Geneva. It describes itself as an
independent international organization committed to improving the state of
the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of
society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. The Forum is best
known for its annual meeting in Davos each year. The meeting brings
together some 2,500 top business leaders, international political leaders,
selected intellectuals and journalists to discuss the most pressing issues
facing the world, including health, food, energy and the environment. The
2012 meeting is scheduled to run from January 25-29, with the theme
"The Great Transformation: Shaping New Models." I doubt there
will be much market shaking news coming from this event, but it is always
interesting to hear what the world's most elite are thinking.
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Northwest
Tennessee -
This past year was very interesting to say the least. On May 15, I rowed a
boat over every acre I own that was completely under water, so you can tell
we had an abnormally wet spring. At that point in time, I thought maybe a
crop for this production year may be out of the question. The thing that I
was fortunate on was the fact that the water didn't have real heavy
currents, so there weren’t major ruts to repair. I ended up getting my corn
in around mid-May and it struggled early, not looking good at all. The yields
suffered terribly being lower 50 bpa taking them to 150 bpa. I did not get
beans planted until August 1st and I thought about not even planting them
but went ahead. The beans struggled but in the end yielded anywhere from 30
to 55 bpa with the normal average at 40 bpa. My biggest problem here lately
has been the battle with the pigweed that is trying to take over and
nothing seems to kill it. I love reading Kevin's report!
Central
Nebraska -
We are right here off the North Platte River where we get a good amount of
flooding generally and last spring was no exception. However, that’s not
really what causes us the most problems. It’s the hail we got to watch out
for. I produce mainly white corn and a little yellow for Frito Lay and we
have a pretty good deal set up with them. We will sign contracts for most
of my new crop in February which gives us a good guarantee. I then still
get to sell through a local buyer here and chose my delivery months and
basis so it allows me some freedom on the timing of my marketing. As far as
production goes, it wasn’t too bad of a year. Like I said, the wet spring
made it difficult to get in the field. Once in, we had a couple storms that
dropped some major hail that took probably 15 bushels off my 200 average.
As you know, we are all irrigated and water is also a big issue for us. I’m
blessed to farm so close to the river as many times the flooding helps the
subsoil moisture on my land, but to grow 185 bushels of corn, it takes 35
wells that ran 24/7 from the beginning of June till September. Looking
forward to the Marketing Seminar in Kansas City in February and meeting
everybody there!
North
Central Kansas -
I farm dry land soybeans and winter wheat. We had 24 days over 100 degrees
this summer and a down pour before and early freeze my soybean yields were
well below normal with a high of 10 bushels down to 3.2 bushel per acre
with an overall average of 3.86 very disappointing. A lot of the pods had
shattered and the moisture measured an average of 9.72% with a test weight
average of 54.82 lbs. per bushel. I’m not looking forward to mudding out
the remainder of the crop but it has to be done. This was the worst crop in
my 35 years farming. I’ll get ‘m next year though! Hay and corn trucks
coming south from the north will keep the highways very busy. I have been
blessed with some recent rains to put us at 50%-75% of annual rainfall. I
need another 6"-8" of moisture to reach last year's wheat yield
potential. There is very little wheat pasture for cattle. Irrigated row crop
bookings, have all been short season corn or low population/full maturity
for next year. No beans have been booked for next year's planting
intentions. No dry land corn or dry land beans have been booked due to lack
of subsoil moisture.
East Central
Missouri -
I farm just about an hour from your office, basically straight East of
Kansas City. Corn and beans are my expertise but occasionally I throw a
little wheat down in pivot corners just for sh*ts and giggles. This year
heat during pollination was the culprit for most of the yield drags, but
overall we made out okay. One thing I have been trying the last few years
is side dressing all my corn rather than putting everything on prior. We
basically go half before and half side dressing. To give you an idea we
made 185 and 53 in corn and beans, compared to 200 and 60 average, so you
won't hear me complain too much. It's crazy the amount of days we have seen
here that have been over 50 degrees in December and January, winter has
been mild to say the least. This winter has been nice but we still need a
little moisture, as much as I hate to say it, a little rainy, snowy weather
would be good for us. We were all geared up to push snow this winter and
the tractor hasn't left the shed. About the only precipitation we have seen
this year is a little rain in a lightning storm that blew through one of
those days it was over 60 degrees.
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- Argentine agronomist Susana
Merlo, a former agriculture subsecretary, is predicting a 2011/12 corn
harvest of between 17 million and 18 million tonnes and a soy crop of
just 39 million tons. This is insanely low, but I thought I would
throw it out.
- Argentine insider throwing
out estimates that Soy crop could be down to 35.6 bushels per acre and
Corn down to 87.5 bushels per acre.
- Japan in the market looking
for 300,000 tons of feed wheat.
- Hearing talk that the corn
basis continues to be on fire. Decatur corn is 40 over and the Memphis
basis is 50 over.
- Some much-needed rain is
headed for Texas and the Arklatex region, but it may come at the cost
of some damaging thunderstorms. It's not out of the question that a
few spots could experience 4 inches of rain due to showers and storms
repeating over the same area. The heavy rain is good news for those
still reeling from a prolonged, severe drought. According to the U.S.
Drought Monitor, more than 62% of Texas is still classified as being
in a 'severe' or 'exceptional' drought.
- The fellows at Goldman
Sachs seem to be on the same page as Informa, thinking that corn
prices will dramatically fall under pressure during the 2012 US
harvest.
- I have heard South American
grain and soy guru "Dr. Cordonnier" has total South American
corn production at 79.8 million meter tons, down 2.7% from last year,
and total soybean production at 128.4 million metric tons, down 5.5%
from year ago.
- The Food and Agriculture
Organization expects Argentina to harvest 21.4 million metric tons of
corn in 2012, after early-planted crops were affected most by a
heatwave during their flowering period
- Oil World is on the same
page reducing their Argentine soy crop by 1.5 million metric tons to
48.5. While actually raising their Brazil soybean estimates by 1
million.
- USDA reporting that in
2011, US cows produced more than 22.8 billion gallons of milk, nearly
400 million more than in 2010.
- Mexico's drought continues
to worry the Mexican government. Talk now is that Mexico lost about 3
million acres and about 50,000 cattle last year, and the problem looks
to be intensifying. There are estimates that show just in the state of
Zacatecas alone some 2.5 million acres of soybeans may not be
harvested this year.
- Government believes Russian
embargo of Brazilian meat is near the end.
- Euro Zone PMI data was
better than most had been anticipating, and there are now signs of
more normal growth being digested by economic analyst.
- There continues to be fear
in the marketplace that Greece will eventually default. Many good
sources now believe it will happen before this summer.
- Stats from CNN showing that
under current Washington administration the price of gas has jumped by
83%, ground beef by 24%, and bacon 22%....interesting!
- Don't forget February Ag
Options expire this Friday.
- Facebook private trades
supposedly halted for 3 days this week. Companies typically tend to
suspend any and all trades ahead of IPO filings...
- CME reporting that world
investments in gold reached a record $80 billion, up more than 20% on
2010. Physical forms of investment drove this record, particularly net
bar purchases at almost 1,200 metric tons up more than 33%.
- Apple once again blows away
earnings! Now has an estimated $100 billion in cash reserves.
- Blackstone Real Estate
Advisors, has formed funds to buy distressed real-estate and
non-distressed properties. In fact Blackstone Group LP (BX.N) has
raised more than $6 billion for a new real estate opportunity fund!
|
 429 Bushels of Corn Per Acre!
David Hula, of Charles City, Virginia recently recorded the highest overall
corn yield of 429.02 bushels per acre on a 43 acre field to win the
National Corn Growers Association "Corn Yield Contest." The fact
that he achieved such an outstanding yield in the wake of an extremely odd
growing season makes this number even more unbelievable. The story is there
was more "sunlight" than there had been in previous years and
that actually helped to enhance the photosynthesis and ultimately the
overall yield. Obviously, David does his homework and performs countless
soil test throughout the year, and adds just the right amount of
fertilizer, nutrients and applications to his crop. It is being reported
that he used Pioneer® brand P2088HR to win first place in the
"No-Till/Strip-Till" Irrigated category. David also admitted to
trying some some new technology this year using Stoller’s
"Bio-Forge" and "X-Tra Power." I also found it
interesting that David was able to pull off extremely good yields in
several of his fields with as little as 1 pound of nitrogen per bushel
yielded. From what I am being told David actually farms fields that were
first cultivated by colonist in Jamestown back in the early 1600s. The
"Pamunkey" soils are considered a fine-loamy, sandy mixed soil
that have been producing fantastic crops for hundreds of years. It is
interesting to think that the ground you farm may have actually been where
Pocahontas saved Captain John Smiths life. I should note that the top three
finishers were all "irrigated," and all in the "South."
This is NOT traditionally the case since most consider corn production in
the south to be subject to extreme heat. What is amazing is that if you
took the top three yielders in six categories: irrigated and non-irrigated,
conventional till and no till/ridge till, and in both A and AA regions, the
average corn yield was 313 bushels per acre. WOW! Here is link provided by
"Stoller Technologies" that helps explain more about how they
helped Hula increase his production:
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2012/1/prweb9106270.htm
Waterbeds for
Dairy Cows???
I'm sure many of you have seen the commercials that basically imply the
best milk comes from "Real California Cows." I'm guessing the
Ohio Dairy Cows may NOW have a reason to disagree. I have heard talk from
several in the trade that a type of "waterbed" is being placed in
dairy barn stalls for the cows to lay on. From what I can gather these
stalls have been modified with two water filled bladders creating a
waterbed type feel for each cow. This may sound strange to those of us here
at home, but I have been told there are some Europeans who have been using
similar type techniques for the past 15-20 years. The claim to fame is that
it helps drastically reduce the white blood cell count. The design is said
to take the pressure off the front knees and rear hocks, that getting up
and down and laying for long periods of time will create. Currently the US
allows no more then a count of 750,000 cells per milliliter while European
standards are 400,000/milliliter. There are some farmers who claim after
adding the beds they have been able to cut their somatic cell count in
half. I am told these water beds cost in the neighborhood of $300, and are
thought to pay for themselves in about 3 years or less. When I first heard
about this, I though the old boy was pulling my leg, and setting me up to
be the butt of yet another farm joke. Wouldn't have ever guessed. Here is a
short video I found that might help you become a believer as well.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/living/2012/01/19/dnt-cows-sleep-on-waterbeds.wjw
Uranium: An
Investment You May Want To Consider
Uranium stocks as of late have really been popping, and the "Global X
Uranium" ETF with the symbol "URA" is up over 20% already in
2012. I am hearing some talk inside the trade that this particular ETF has
a chance to double within the next 12-18 months. If you recall, Uranium
took a huge hit following the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster this
past year. After the world watched the fallout from the Japanese tsunami
many investors abandoned nuclear power, and in particular Uranium. This has
driven Uranium stocks in many cases to 52 week lows. Obviously the press
ran with the story, and jumped all over the role of nuclear energy for our
future. Not once have the talking heads mentioned that reactors now being
built are portable, economical and most of all safe. The two biggest
players, that are counting on nuclear power for the future, are in fact
China and India. I am hearing that both China and India are poised to
increase uranium consumption by more than 45% in order to fuel five of the
world’s largest atomic-power projects. Along with this, some believe China
could be attempting to actually corner the uranium market. China continues
to play the role of "smart money" aggressively acquiring uranium
and uranium mines to ensure it has the fuel for its ambitious nuclear power
agenda. Given the geopolitical conditions -- China certainly has incentive
to build their uranium stockpile in an an aggressive fashion. Further
solidifying my belief, "China’s Nuclear Energy Association"
recently came out and stated it will increase atomic capacity by eightfold
by 2020. In a similar note India’s Atomic Energy Commission has commented
it will raise its production by as much as 13 times by 2030. The bottom-line
is that the world needs nuclear power and there is no effective substitute
in sight; fossil fuels are declining in availability and unpopular due to
CO2 emissions, while solar and wind simply do not meet the four imperatives
that energy sources must meet (which basically mean energy sources need to
be cheap and scalable). I am of the belief that time heals most all wounds,
therefore I would have to imagine Uranium will soon come back into favor.
What might have been the worst performing ETF in 2011 now has the potential
to be one of the best performing. In case you are interested
"URA" is trading today at $10.55, the 52 week trading range is
$7.06 to $22.42.
Will Greece
Ultimately "Tap-Out" or Escape This Deadly Financial Submission
Hold?
As the IMF, ECB and European debt crisis continue to be on the minds of
most global investors, GREECE may be soon become the the proverbial
"straw" that breaks the camels back. All eyes are starting to
quickly focus on the March 20th bond repayment date. In order for Greece to
make these payments and avoid a "default," talks must result in a
resolution, then be confirmed prior to this drop dead date. If some type of
an agreement can be manufactured, it will go a long ways towards kicking
the can further down the road.
 From what I am hearing, Greece
needs to come up with about $18.5 million in order to meet the upcoming
bond repayments that are due on March 20th. Some insiders are thinking,
even if Greece is somehow able to make this round of payments it will only
be a matter of time until they ultimately "default." I find
myself in this camp as well, and feel that unless the EU leaders can get
extremely creative a "default" is inevitable. I have listed below
the most obvious outcomes:
- Greece asks those who have
lent them money or purchased their bonds to give them a reprieve.
Essentially they will be asking the German, French and American banks
to let them off the hook. For example if Greece owes someone $100
million at 10% interest, they will be wanting them to reduce the principal
owed by at least 50%, and reduce the interest rate to below 5%. There
are a couple of big problems with this. Not only would the banks who
purchased the Greek bonds or loaned them the money have to take a huge
hit, but countries like Italy, Portugal, Ireland, etc... would quickly
cry foul and ask for the same type of privileges. Neither Europe nor
the world could handle this kind of "default." If this
somehow would be agreed upon the world would still view it as a
"default." In technical terms you might be able to call it a
voluntary "default" or "restructuring." In my
opinion it is still a "default." Not being able to pay back
a loan at the terms you agreed upon.
- Greece tells the world they
can no longer make the payments and will be ending the party for
everyone involved. Simply stated Greece would be "bankrupt."
This would initially send shockwaves through the investment world, and
many banks would be rocked. I still contend however an EU balance
sheet without the debt load of Greece would be a remarked improvement
in the long-term. This would obviously be viewed as full fledge
"default."
- Greece contends they are
jammed up because they can NOT print their way out this mess. Here in
the US or in Japan we can simply print more money and extend the problems
further and further down the road, and in many cases simply use our
own currency to make the payments. Since Greece is part of the EU, the
only way they could print more money would be to leave the EU. The
problem is if Greece leaves the EU no one will loan them any money,
and will not be willing to trade with them for many years to come.
This would essentially isolate Greece from the rest of the world and
leave their economy in much worse condition than it currently is in.
As you can see, there
is no "good" option left on the board for Greece or for those
holding Greek debt. Something completely creative and well outside our
traditional thought process will need to occur for this to not end badly.
The next 45-days will be interesting as Greece tries find some wiggle room
in what appears to be a deadly financial submission hold. You can call it
an arm-bar, guillotine, or kimura, but anyway you slice it, I am looking
fro Greece to ultimately "Tap-Out."
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|
1937 – “The Guiding Light” debuts on
NBC radio from Chicago. In 1952 it moves to CBS television, where it
remains until Sept. 18, 2009. “The Guiding Light” or “GL” is an American TV
soap opera that is credited by the Guinness Book of World Records as the
longest running drama in TV and radio history. The show's title refers to a
lamp in the study of Reverend Dr. John Ruthledge, a major character when “The
Guiding Light” debuted in 1937, that family and residents could see as a
sign for them to find help when needed. GL is also among the longest
running broadcast programs in history of any kind, across radio media for
15 years, and then television media for 57 years, being first broadcast
five days after President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s second inauguration. On
April 1, 2009, CBS announced that it canceled “Guiding Light” because of
low ratings. The show taped its final scenes on August 11, 2009, and its
final episode aired on September 18, 2009. On October 5, 2009, CBS replaced
“Guiding Light” with an hour-long revival of “Let’s Make a Deal,” hosted by
Wayne Brady.
1993 – Five people are
shot outside the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia resulting in two
murders. On January 25, 1993 two CIA employees were killed and three others
wounded. The perpetrator, Aimal Qazi, shot the CIA employees in their cars
as they were waiting at a stoplight. Qazi was reportedly angry from
watching news reports of attacks on Muslims. He had stated his motive was
that he was, "angry with the policy of the U.S. government in the
Middle East, particularly toward the Palestinian people." After the
shooting Qazi fled the country and was placed on the FBI Ten Most Wanted
Fugitives list, sparking a 4-year international manhunt. Qazi was captured
by FBI agents in Pakistan in 1997 and brought back to the United States to
stand trial. Qazi admitted that he shot the victims of the attack, and was
subsequently found guilty of capital and first-degree murder, and was
executed by lethal injection in 2002.
1996 – Billy Bailey became the last
person to be hanged in the United States of America. In 1979, Bailey was
assigned to the Plummer House, (a work release facility in Wilmington,
Delaware), but soon escaped. He ended up at the home of his foster sister
(Sue Ann Coker) and her husband (Charles Coker). Bailey and Charles Coker
went on an errand in Coker's truck. Bailey asked Coker to stop at a liquor
store. Bailey entered the store and robbed the clerk at gunpoint, emerging
from the store with a pistol in one hand and a bottle in the other. Bailey
told Coker that the police would be arriving and asked to be dropped at
Lambertson's Corner, about 1.5 miles away. Once there, Bailey entered the
farmhouse of Gilbert Lambertson, aged 80, and his wife, Clara Lambertson,
aged 73. Bailey shot Gilbert Lambertson twice in the chest with a pistol
and once in the head with the Lambertsons' shotgun. Then he shot Clara
Lambertson once in the shoulder with the pistol and once each in the
abdomen and neck with the shotgun, killing both victims. A Delaware State
Police helicopter spotted Bailey as he ran across the Lambertsons' field.
He attempted to shoot the helicopter co-pilot with the pistol and was soon
arrested. Bailey was found guilty of the murders, and Bailey was sentenced
to be hanged by his neck until he was dead. Although Bailey had been
sentenced to hang, because the method of execution in Delaware had been
changed to lethal injection, he had the option of choosing that method.
Bailey refused to accept lethal injection, telling a visitor "I'm not
going to let them put me to sleep." Bailey became only the third
person to be hanged in the United States since 1965 (the previous 2 were
Charles Rodman Campbell and Westley Allan Dodd, both in Washington) and the
first hanged in Delaware in 50 years.
2004 – Opportunity Rover (MER-B) lands
on the surface of Mars. MER-B is a robotic rover on the planet Mars. It has
been active since 2004, and is the remaining rover in NASA’s ongoing Mars
Exploration Rover Mission. MER-B was launched from Earth on July 7, 2004,
three weeks after its twin, Spirit (MER-A), touched down on the other side
of the planet. MER-B has continued to function effectively 30 times longer than
its planned mission. MER-B has continued to perform extensive geological
analysis of Martian rocks and planetary surface features. Meanwhile, its
twin, MER-A, became immobile in 2009 and in 2010 ceased communications.
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January 25 - The Next Fed Meeting - This one
could will host a Bernanke press conference after the meeting.
January 31 - Florida Primary
February 2 -
Groundhog Day:
Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog will make his spring prediction at
daybreak. Approximately 7:25 am EST.
February 9 - USDA Crop Production Report
February 15 –
18 - National
Farm Machinery Show in Louisville, KY. Come by and visit us at Booth# 404E
in the North Wing.
February 16 - USDA Crop Value Annual Summary
February 19 - Greek Parliamentary Elections
February 20 -
Presidents Day (Markets
are Closed)
February 21 -Fat Tuesday: Marks the official
start of the 2012 Mardi Gras in New Orleans, LA.
February 24 - Agri Summit 2012 Come hear Kevin Van Trump and special
guests speak live in Kansas City regarding next years marketing.
February 29 -
Leap Day: The extra day
that occurs once every four years.
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CORN MARCH 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL LEVELS - NEUTRAL
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• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $7.49
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $7.05
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $6.66
• Previous Close $6.30^2
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $5.44
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $5.40
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $5.02
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SOYBEANS MARCH 2012 CONTRACT TECHNICAL LEVELS
- NEUTRAL
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• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $14.35
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $13.55
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $12.70
• Previous Close $12.22^0
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $10.99
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $9.94
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $ 9.18
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WHEAT MARCH 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - BEARISH
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• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $9.24^4
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $8.07
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $6.75
• Previous Close $6.33^4
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $5.41
• Intermediate SupportLevel#2 @ $5.02
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $4.44
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CATTLE FEBRUARY 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - BULLISH
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• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $130.25
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $128.10
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $126.65
• Previous Close $125.800
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $116.50
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $112.10
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $108.00
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HOGS FEBRUARY 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - BULLISH
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• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $92.50
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $89.50
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $86.80
• Previous Close $85.975
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $81.90
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $79.30
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $76.52
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CRUDE OIL MARCH 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - BULLISH
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• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $116.20
• IntermediateResistance Level #2 @ $108.50
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $105.30
• Previous Close $99.16
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $84.10
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $74.50
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $67.05
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S&P 500 MARCH 2012
CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - NEUTRAL
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• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ 1,441
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ 1,354
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ 1,335
• Previous Close 1,311.50
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ 1,064
• IntermediateSupport Level #2 @ 1,001
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ 855
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“I am a recent
subscriber to Kevin’s newsletter, but I’m a long-time reader of many other
high-profile marketing services. I am particularly impressed with the
thorough manner in which Kevin evaluates every economic aspect, both
nationally and internationally, that influences commodity prices. His
analysis and conclusions are highly thought out and conveyed in layman’s
terms so that the reader can comprehend the numerous and often complex
interrelationships that impact the markets. Kevin is a real attribute to
the agricultural sector.”
A.M., FDIC
“As a national
federal farm policy administrator and commodity producer, I find it
critical to keep updated with what is going on in the real world of
agriculture and with the domestic and global markets. Of all the services
I’ve have been privy to or have subscribed to over the past 20 years I’ve
found in the past several months of engaging in your “Farm Direction”
services to be the best perception and analysis of what is really happening
in today’s world. Not only here in the United States, but across the globe
as well. US farmers need this type of help and information to assist them
in their daily efforts. I commend you for a job well done. Please let me
know if I can ever be of any help or assistance to you in the future…”
L.T., Assistant Deputy Administrator for Farm
Programs USDA
More Testimonials
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"Not To Trade,
is often considered a good trading decision..."
"First Rule of
HOLES: When you are in one stop digging..."
"Every looser
in Vegas, always walks away from the table thinking he could have done
better, the winners on the other hand leave while on top..."
"Bulls make
money, Bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered..."
I'm more of a
long-term player, therefore you will not see me give many short-term
suggestions or trade ideas. One of my most important rules is that I always
follow my long-term direction. Therefore, as long as I am
"bullish" a market I will only play that particular market in one
of three ways.
- Option #1 - Conservatively
long.
- Option #2 - Aggressively
long.
- Option #3 - Sitting on the
sideline.
I never initiate a
"short" position in a
market that I am
"bullish" longer-term, nor do I initiate a "long"
position in a market I am "bearish" longer-term.
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