Here are some charts as well as screen shots of option quotes
Showing posts with label $50 Beans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label $50 Beans. Show all posts
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Market Comments 8-17-2012 USDA report thoughts after the fact
Good morning; it is Tuesday the 14th around 8:30 and presently we have the grain
markets slightly firmer as they try to bounce a little bit from the selloff the
past couple of sessions.
Presently Dec corn is up 2-3 cents, beans are 6 higher, KC
wheat is up 1-2, MPLS up 4-5, and CBOT wheat up 4. Outside markets have the equities firmer with
the DOW up 26 points, the US dollar is near unchanged, and crude is up about a
dollar a barrel.
The big news in the past week has been the recent weather
changes and more so the big report that was out on Friday. The USDA report that was out last week was
bullish for the row crops; but maybe not bullish enough to say that we need to
go up now. The report estimated balance
sheets for corn and beans about as tight as ever but also the pegged carryout
numbers came very close to trade estimates.
Bottom line is last week’s report did a good job or started
the job of defining our supply size. Now
the next thing for our market to do is try to determine demand. Last week’s report showed corn and bean
demand being cut big time. Perhaps too
much if we see a price break that adds back any demand.
I think our weather markets are nearing the end and the
markets will soon focus on weather in other countries and more importantly at
this time should be demand. Good demand
hopefully or lack of demand will start to lead the headlines. It should really provide some rather volatile
markets as we move forward. Because it
really is a chicken and egg thing or catch 22 thing.
If you think about it the report out on Friday basically
said that supply will be so tight and prices will go up so high that demand
will be cut. What happens to demand
under basic ECON 101 if we get a price break; much like we have the past few
sessions. I know it doesn’t hurt any end
user’s profitability unless their output (ethanol/ddg/etc) happened to be down
more than the input this case corn/beans.
So a price breaks don’t do the job or rationing off demand.
Really at the end of the day the report told me for the next
several months we need to stay at levels that curve demand year over year and
don’t bring on any extra demand from the nearly 2.5 billion bushels of demand
that the USDA has cut over the past several months. In June the 2012/2013 usage for corn was
pegged at 13.775 billion bushels while on Friday the USDA pegged it at 11.225
billion bushels. The markets job will be
to make sure that we don’t go low enough to entice enough demand that we run
out of product too soon.
Having said the above you can see that I have an underlying
bullish tone for the market. But it
should be pointed out that each of the last couple of years we have had the
USDA print carryout levels on corn around the 600-800 million bushel type
carryout and by the time we were all said and done both of the last couple
years ended up seeing an ending carryout closer to a billion bushels and that
happened without 10.00 corn. It happened
with corn typically around 6.00-6.50 on the board the majority of the past
year; while trading from mainly 6.00-8.00 the year before. Bottom line is near the top of the markets
each of the past couple years most thought the markets would need to go higher
and well they didn’t. I would agree that
this drought isn’t nothing like we have ever seen before. But I would also point out that sometimes
demand can be curved faster than supply is cut.
Case in point the sunflower market the last year or so; in which we say
sunflower trade at 50 cents or so; only to have the smallest crop since the
early 70’s and yet prices for the majority of the year traded from 25-30 cents
or about ½ of what they where a year ago before the small crop.
Bottom line is high prices curve high prices and things
always look the best at what ends up being the top. So never stop practicing good solid risk
management in your grain marketing plan in a way that allows you to feel
comfortable whether the next move is a couple dollar break or a couple dollar
rally as either is possible and both are probably probable if you consider the
volatile markets of 2008 and how this year from a fundamental standpoint could
make 2008 look tame.
As for market direction as we move forward watch for yield
estimates to help the market more
determine the supply. If that supply get’s
smaller more reason for us to bounce. If
we have already seen the smallest production number while then more reason to
think that perhaps a top has been put in.
But at the end of the day I think it will come down to demand and that
with supply should be difficult to balance out without some rather sharp moves;
probably in both directions.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Friday, May 11, 2012
Beans get smacked! - Neutral Nick update time
Beans got smacked today so it is time for Neutral Nick to look at his positions in an effort to try and manage his risk.
He went threw all of his positions and felt good about all of the months and all of the commodities other then July beans.
For corn he felt that his p & l graphs where at good support areas and didn't feel the need to chase in which might cause a lot of whipsaw action.
Same for wheat.
Before his soybean adjustments which I will display below he has overall profits in most of the trades he has on and his expiration profits giving him a much more potential. Those charts have changed since his last update about a week ago. You can find them at http://grainmarketingplans.blogspot.com/2012/05/neutral-nick-update-nearly-200k-booked.html
Soybeans today broke some major support and could very well see plenty of follow threw weakness; then again if you look at the report a couple days ago you might think beans have plenty more upside.
The corn and wheat markets are at the bottom end of the ranges they have been for some time; if we don't bounce Mr Neutral Nick might have to look to adjust sometime in the near future as he does have put options sold that are now close to or in some cases slightly in the money. As mentioned before Neutral Nick this time around is using a little bias and his bias for those markets are A we are near a harvest low for wheat and we have year over year month over month decreasing supplies and B the cash corn market has shown no weakness leaving the cheapest spot to buy corn still the board for many so he isn't wanting to adjust at this time and C the new crop corn showing a yield of 166 is a little premature; Nick and myself are in the camp that we should see a weather scare at some point.
Here are Nick's updates and his corresponding bean graphs.
His only trades this week are the sale of 50 July 13.50 puts and 100 of the July 14.50 calls. With us getting closer to the June expiration of these options this will probably be the last time he sells any July options. He might buy some; but one thing he has to watch out for is Gamma Risk.
He went threw all of his positions and felt good about all of the months and all of the commodities other then July beans.
For corn he felt that his p & l graphs where at good support areas and didn't feel the need to chase in which might cause a lot of whipsaw action.
Same for wheat.
Before his soybean adjustments which I will display below he has overall profits in most of the trades he has on and his expiration profits giving him a much more potential. Those charts have changed since his last update about a week ago. You can find them at http://grainmarketingplans.blogspot.com/2012/05/neutral-nick-update-nearly-200k-booked.html
Soybeans today broke some major support and could very well see plenty of follow threw weakness; then again if you look at the report a couple days ago you might think beans have plenty more upside.
The corn and wheat markets are at the bottom end of the ranges they have been for some time; if we don't bounce Mr Neutral Nick might have to look to adjust sometime in the near future as he does have put options sold that are now close to or in some cases slightly in the money. As mentioned before Neutral Nick this time around is using a little bias and his bias for those markets are A we are near a harvest low for wheat and we have year over year month over month decreasing supplies and B the cash corn market has shown no weakness leaving the cheapest spot to buy corn still the board for many so he isn't wanting to adjust at this time and C the new crop corn showing a yield of 166 is a little premature; Nick and myself are in the camp that we should see a weather scare at some point.
Here are Nick's updates and his corresponding bean graphs.
His only trades this week are the sale of 50 July 13.50 puts and 100 of the July 14.50 calls. With us getting closer to the June expiration of these options this will probably be the last time he sells any July options. He might buy some; but one thing he has to watch out for is Gamma Risk.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
How do I decide what type of protection?
I was looking today at what gives me the best protection ahead of the USDA crop report.
To answer that question one has to ask more questions; such as how long do I want protection; what type of protection do I need if we move X cents or X dollars up or down......how much do I want to spend.
So after one answers those questions the next thing to do is the what if's; for me I use position book from RJO and run various what if's.
Today I ran the example of if I want to spend $50k in protection using Dec put options what gives me the best bang for my buck. Do i buy out of the money options? In the money? Deep out of the money? Etc
So I decided to run threw some what if's using Dec corn futures and various strikes. I believe that I want to have the trigger pulled by July 4th ish; on the cash side; so i ran what if's or theoretically values based on July 6th.
I took 50k and bought as many put options as I could using the following strikes.
5.20 or ATM puts which i figured at 41-42 cents i could buy about 24 of them
5.00 or OTM put which i figured at 31-32 cents i could buy about 32 of them
4.50 or Deep OTM puts which i figured i could buy 77 of them
4.00 or Very Deep OTM (OTM out of the money) which i figured i could buy about 286 of them.
I didn't take into account the more commissions with the more quantity; but here is what i found that gains or losses to be (theoretically based on no volatility changes) at these various futures levels on the Dec Futures
6.00 Dec Futures - all four of the trades are big losers; with the ATM losing the least at 38k loss; followed by the 5.00 puts which lose about 41k, then the 4.50 puts which loss 45k, and lastly the 4.00 puts have lost about all value down about 48k. Now if we are a producer this is the best option if you don't have 100 % protection because it means we have rallied 80 cents and should have more then paid for the 50k paid in protection
5.00 Dec Futures...give the Higher the strike the more profit. The 5.20 would be up aprox 2500, the 5.00 strikes about 1200, the 4.50 would be losing about 4500 and the 4.00 strikes would have lost you about 14k
4.50 Dec Futures....Here is where you see them all start to make money; this time however the more puts you have the more they make; so the best performance at 4.50 on July 6th ish would be the 4.00 puts which should be up about 75k, followed by the 4.50 puts which should be up about 60k, then followed by the 5.00 up about 48k, and lastly the at the money 5.20 puts are now up only 42k
4.00 Dec Futures....this levels and below is where you really see how well leverage can work for one.....the pattern is the same you are better off having bought more out of the money puts then you are at the money puts even though we are not yet in the money on the 4.00 puts they lead by far; you would now have turned your 50k investment into about 306k profit, your 4.50 would be 176k, your 5.00 would be 111k, and your 5.20 puts would be up about 94k profit
3.50 Dec Futures.....This is where you hit the home run so to speak; turning your 4.00 puts that are worth less then 4 cents when you buy them into about 55 cents each; having bought 286 of them you are now up nearly 750,000 in profits, the others also do good; but not even close versus having the many more 4.00 puts; the 4.50 puts would have about 335k in profit; the 5.00 puts would be up about 111k, and the 5.20 puts up about 94k
Bottom line when deciding what type of coverage you are looking for don't forget to look at the what if's; also keep in mind that the what if's i am looking at are based on 60 days from now; not expiration; as at expiration 4.00 dec futures don't make you any money at 4.00 puts; but in the shorter term they could make you a lot of money
Overall it seems to make sense to buy more OTM if you plan on only holding a short term; they don't perform as well in a sideways market nor an up market; but they are in another league as for performance in a down market
Please give me a call if you have questions
and as always make sure you understand that futures and options are very risky
Here is a screen shot of the what if's that i used in the above example
To answer that question one has to ask more questions; such as how long do I want protection; what type of protection do I need if we move X cents or X dollars up or down......how much do I want to spend.
So after one answers those questions the next thing to do is the what if's; for me I use position book from RJO and run various what if's.
Today I ran the example of if I want to spend $50k in protection using Dec put options what gives me the best bang for my buck. Do i buy out of the money options? In the money? Deep out of the money? Etc
So I decided to run threw some what if's using Dec corn futures and various strikes. I believe that I want to have the trigger pulled by July 4th ish; on the cash side; so i ran what if's or theoretically values based on July 6th.
I took 50k and bought as many put options as I could using the following strikes.
5.20 or ATM puts which i figured at 41-42 cents i could buy about 24 of them
5.00 or OTM put which i figured at 31-32 cents i could buy about 32 of them
4.50 or Deep OTM puts which i figured i could buy 77 of them
4.00 or Very Deep OTM (OTM out of the money) which i figured i could buy about 286 of them.
I didn't take into account the more commissions with the more quantity; but here is what i found that gains or losses to be (theoretically based on no volatility changes) at these various futures levels on the Dec Futures
6.00 Dec Futures - all four of the trades are big losers; with the ATM losing the least at 38k loss; followed by the 5.00 puts which lose about 41k, then the 4.50 puts which loss 45k, and lastly the 4.00 puts have lost about all value down about 48k. Now if we are a producer this is the best option if you don't have 100 % protection because it means we have rallied 80 cents and should have more then paid for the 50k paid in protection
5.00 Dec Futures...give the Higher the strike the more profit. The 5.20 would be up aprox 2500, the 5.00 strikes about 1200, the 4.50 would be losing about 4500 and the 4.00 strikes would have lost you about 14k
4.50 Dec Futures....Here is where you see them all start to make money; this time however the more puts you have the more they make; so the best performance at 4.50 on July 6th ish would be the 4.00 puts which should be up about 75k, followed by the 4.50 puts which should be up about 60k, then followed by the 5.00 up about 48k, and lastly the at the money 5.20 puts are now up only 42k
4.00 Dec Futures....this levels and below is where you really see how well leverage can work for one.....the pattern is the same you are better off having bought more out of the money puts then you are at the money puts even though we are not yet in the money on the 4.00 puts they lead by far; you would now have turned your 50k investment into about 306k profit, your 4.50 would be 176k, your 5.00 would be 111k, and your 5.20 puts would be up about 94k profit
3.50 Dec Futures.....This is where you hit the home run so to speak; turning your 4.00 puts that are worth less then 4 cents when you buy them into about 55 cents each; having bought 286 of them you are now up nearly 750,000 in profits, the others also do good; but not even close versus having the many more 4.00 puts; the 4.50 puts would have about 335k in profit; the 5.00 puts would be up about 111k, and the 5.20 puts up about 94k
Bottom line when deciding what type of coverage you are looking for don't forget to look at the what if's; also keep in mind that the what if's i am looking at are based on 60 days from now; not expiration; as at expiration 4.00 dec futures don't make you any money at 4.00 puts; but in the shorter term they could make you a lot of money
Overall it seems to make sense to buy more OTM if you plan on only holding a short term; they don't perform as well in a sideways market nor an up market; but they are in another league as for performance in a down market
Please give me a call if you have questions
and as always make sure you understand that futures and options are very risky
Here is a screen shot of the what if's that i used in the above example
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Neutral Nick Update - Nearly 200k booked profits
It's been a while since we heard from our mock trading character Neutral Nick. That is both good and bad; good in that he hasn't been over trading and bad that he hasn't done a good job following up and monitoring his positions as much as he should be.
He recently had his May options expire; in which he left most expire worthless; both the ones he owned and had sold. But he did have some soybean options that left him long; he chose to get out of them on the close on Friday.
Net with all of his May options expiring and his now turned futures positions Nick booked $193,437.50 profit before his costs and commissions.
Under normal full service brokers he would have paid about 10,800 in commissions; discounted online brokers could have been much less.
For his new trades or updates he has plenty of them with it being some time since he has followed up.
For corn his updates are buying back all of his cheap call options sold for nice profits and selling other options to pay for them as well as some more deferred options that fit his market ideas so he did the following basis Friday's close
Bought 70 CN 700 calls
Bought 120 CN 750 calls
Sold 50 CN 600 puts
Sold 50 CU 600 calls
Sold 50 CZ 600 calls
For soybeans he sold 100 of each of the following
July 1500 calls, 1450 puts
Nov 1600 calls, 1200 puts
For wheat he bought back 40 of the July 8.00 calls that he had sold and then sold 50 of each of the following
Sept 7.00 calls
Sept 6.00 puts
Dec 6.00 puts
Dec 7.50 calls
Overall the one thing you notice is he tried to take away some gamma risk and tried to sell more deferred options; his preference is out of the money with about 5 months left. He also bought back and placed trades that follow his bias
Below are his P L Graphs; this doesn't include the nearly 200k winner he booked above; also keep in mind that he has risk between commodities and between different months.
Following that are each commodity broke down per contract month as he is looking to book consistent winners every time an option expires via continuing to sell time and volatility and that is what the above trades are trying to accomplish.
Keep in mind that he does have plenty of risk in in strategy
He recently had his May options expire; in which he left most expire worthless; both the ones he owned and had sold. But he did have some soybean options that left him long; he chose to get out of them on the close on Friday.
Net with all of his May options expiring and his now turned futures positions Nick booked $193,437.50 profit before his costs and commissions.
Under normal full service brokers he would have paid about 10,800 in commissions; discounted online brokers could have been much less.
For his new trades or updates he has plenty of them with it being some time since he has followed up.
For corn his updates are buying back all of his cheap call options sold for nice profits and selling other options to pay for them as well as some more deferred options that fit his market ideas so he did the following basis Friday's close
Bought 70 CN 700 calls
Bought 120 CN 750 calls
Sold 50 CN 600 puts
Sold 50 CU 600 calls
Sold 50 CZ 600 calls
For soybeans he sold 100 of each of the following
July 1500 calls, 1450 puts
Nov 1600 calls, 1200 puts
For wheat he bought back 40 of the July 8.00 calls that he had sold and then sold 50 of each of the following
Sept 7.00 calls
Sept 6.00 puts
Dec 6.00 puts
Dec 7.50 calls
Overall the one thing you notice is he tried to take away some gamma risk and tried to sell more deferred options; his preference is out of the money with about 5 months left. He also bought back and placed trades that follow his bias
Below are his P L Graphs; this doesn't include the nearly 200k winner he booked above; also keep in mind that he has risk between commodities and between different months.
Following that are each commodity broke down per contract month as he is looking to book consistent winners every time an option expires via continuing to sell time and volatility and that is what the above trades are trying to accomplish.
Keep in mind that he does have plenty of risk in in strategy
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Neutral Nick Update 3-11-12
Neutral Nick updated today; first time in nearly a month.
I hope to post more screen shots of his present positions later in the week; one thing he is trying to do is not trade as much as last year and watch his gamma exposure a little closer. He also isn't getting caught up in selling just one certain month of options. I.E. last year he was mainly selling July options and didn't sell any later then that; towards the end of his run his gamma exposure was just too much; that is part of the reason you see him in options that are near term all the way to some that are out in Dec.
I hope to post more screen shots of his present positions later in the week; one thing he is trying to do is not trade as much as last year and watch his gamma exposure a little closer. He also isn't getting caught up in selling just one certain month of options. I.E. last year he was mainly selling July options and didn't sell any later then that; towards the end of his run his gamma exposure was just too much; that is part of the reason you see him in options that are near term all the way to some that are out in Dec.
Friday, February 17, 2012
MWC Marketing Hour Round Table
I put up an interesting trade this week in our weekly mock trading session.
It was a hedge trade......well kind of
the trade was buying 2 May 6.00 Corn puts and sell 1 8.00 Dec wheat call
below is some of the thinking i had on in the agweb.com marketing old and new crop discussion thread
http://discussions.agweb.com/showthread.php?14346-Marketing-Old-Crop-and-New-Crop-2012&p=225650#post225650
-------------
one strategy that we looked at in our marketing meetings this week was selling dec wheat calls to buy may and july corn puts
based on theory that dec-dec corn-wheat spread has corn well under valued versus wheat.....so selling a call in wheat instead of corn in hopes that if it turns into a HTA corn has gained some of the 1.20 or so discount that it presently is
i think the level we used was buying 2 6.00 may corn puts and selling 1 dec 8.00 wheat call for a small credit
the reason we used may instead of july or dec is protection cost of only 14-15 cents or so; plus if market breaks i don;t think new crop breaks nearlly as hard; i think breaks or rallies will be lead by old crop corn.........so if i want to protect a price break i want to protect the area that has the most risk......in this case old crop corn
it is much more risky and tricky to manage then using the same month and same commodity but it does have some reasoning behind it
any thoughts on the trade
selling 1 dec 8.00 to 8.50 cbot wheat call to buy 2 6.00 ish may corn puts......as protection against corn.....and a sale on top side for corn
It was a hedge trade......well kind of
the trade was buying 2 May 6.00 Corn puts and sell 1 8.00 Dec wheat call
below is some of the thinking i had on in the agweb.com marketing old and new crop discussion thread
http://discussions.agweb.com/showthread.php?14346-Marketing-Old-Crop-and-New-Crop-2012&p=225650#post225650
-------------
one strategy that we looked at in our marketing meetings this week was selling dec wheat calls to buy may and july corn puts
based on theory that dec-dec corn-wheat spread has corn well under valued versus wheat.....so selling a call in wheat instead of corn in hopes that if it turns into a HTA corn has gained some of the 1.20 or so discount that it presently is
i think the level we used was buying 2 6.00 may corn puts and selling 1 dec 8.00 wheat call for a small credit
the reason we used may instead of july or dec is protection cost of only 14-15 cents or so; plus if market breaks i don;t think new crop breaks nearlly as hard; i think breaks or rallies will be lead by old crop corn.........so if i want to protect a price break i want to protect the area that has the most risk......in this case old crop corn
it is much more risky and tricky to manage then using the same month and same commodity but it does have some reasoning behind it
any thoughts on the trade
selling 1 dec 8.00 to 8.50 cbot wheat call to buy 2 6.00 ish may corn puts......as protection against corn.....and a sale on top side for corn
Neutral Nick Update
Well it's been a couple week's since Neutral Nick jumped back on the scene; so it is about time for an update.
Below you will see some screen shots showing Nick's updates and projections; keep in mind this time nick is much more diversified into the months he has options sold and purchased. Generally he has purchased a few nearby options and sold deferred options. He also has used his idea's on where spreads go to decide how to position himself. His goal is no longer to stay 100,000 delta short. His system this time is trying to make about a million dollars in each of the grains; without huge margin exposure; watching his gamma risk and not building such a huge and unrealistic mountain if you will.
Check out his info below.
Below you will see some screen shots showing Nick's updates and projections; keep in mind this time nick is much more diversified into the months he has options sold and purchased. Generally he has purchased a few nearby options and sold deferred options. He also has used his idea's on where spreads go to decide how to position himself. His goal is no longer to stay 100,000 delta short. His system this time is trying to make about a million dollars in each of the grains; without huge margin exposure; watching his gamma risk and not building such a huge and unrealistic mountain if you will.
Check out his info below.
The above graph on his delta position is really one thing that needs to be managed. A couple of reasons. A) so he doesn't swing too direction bias and stays "neutral" so to speak B) So he can help control his margin cost. What is his plan to do that; take a little off the top side via near term closer to the money options that have a big gamma advantage over other options he has sold or is selling.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Mock Trading Update
last week we did add a few trades during our Mock Trading session;
I adjusted my long 6.00 march puts via selling a 6.40 march corn put
I also adjusted my short July put via the sale of a 7.00 July corn call
Other new trades that where placed include Kevin with a long soybean contract versus 2 short wheat contracts
Scott went short some CBOT wheat at 674 with a stop of 6.85 and an objective of 6.50
Duane went long 2 March Wheat with a stop at 6.55 while going short 3 March corn
Please stop in Onida this Wed if you would like to join in on the fun; as it is great for learning.
I adjusted my long 6.00 march puts via selling a 6.40 march corn put
I also adjusted my short July put via the sale of a 7.00 July corn call
Other new trades that where placed include Kevin with a long soybean contract versus 2 short wheat contracts
Scott went short some CBOT wheat at 674 with a stop of 6.85 and an objective of 6.50
Duane went long 2 March Wheat with a stop at 6.55 while going short 3 March corn
Please stop in Onida this Wed if you would like to join in on the fun; as it is great for learning.
Neutral Nick is back
Neutral Nick our mock trading character is back; this time with a little different rules and different game plan. Not just focused on his delta position; nor does he no longer have an unlimited checkbook. Plus he is planing on rolling things out this time; so no real end date.
Here are his trades to start off; many off of July futures; but some off of the Dec futures too.
Here are his trades to start off; many off of July futures; but some off of the Dec futures too.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Farm Direction Forward - Opening Grain Market Comments soft outside markets
Below are opening comments as well as a forward from Kevin Van Trump who
will be one of the speakers for next week’s grain marketing workshop that we
are sponsoring in Pierre on Feb 2nd at the Ramkota at 10:00 a.m.; Ed
Usset will be the other presenter.
Please give us a call or shoot us an email to RSVP for what should be a
great time.
Markets are called mixed to supportive this a.m. behind a firmer
overnight session; outside markets are a little weak and most calls are
slightly below where we left off the overnight session at.
In the overnight session we saw corn up 3 on the old crop while new crop
was off 2, beans unchanged to down a couple,
MPLS wheat was 4 higher, KC wheat was up 3, and CBOT wheat was up
5. At 9:00 outside markets have crude
down a little over a dollar a barrel, equities are weaker with the DOW down 82
points, and the US dollar is firmer up 379 on the cash index at 80.247.
Not much for new news out this a.m.
The rumors
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Neutral Nick Consolidated Positions - Projected Profit and Loss
utrBelow I have some consolidated charts for Nick's projected P L on his very MOCK farm.
But first I recently read Ed Usset's blog enteries on spreads between commodities. I would reccomend checking it out as many believe spreads show a good deal of what is behind actual demand in a given market. Spreads are one of the strategies that DTN uses in their 6 Factors Marketing Strategies.
To check out Ed's blog go to http://edsworld.wordpress.com/
Keep in mind that spreads at times can be lagging indicators as we typically see front months lead on rallies with defered months lagging; and vice versa when we see the markets under pressure (at least in my opinion).
Back to Neutral Nick; I have had many ask on what his overall outlook is looking like. You will find the spots on this blog with each and everyone of his trades as well as all of his booked gains/losses on closed positions, but here is what it looks like for all of his open corn, soybean, and wheat positions combinded. As mentioned earlier I will work towards an actual hard bottom line number that includes some allowance for slippage and commissions once Nick's old crop story grain marketing is done.
That does remind me; perhaps Nick should be looking at new crop grain marketing sometime soon?
Click here to see Nick's margin info http://grainmarketingplans.blogspot.com/2011/05/nicks-margin-requirements-wow-good-bad.html
But first I recently read Ed Usset's blog enteries on spreads between commodities. I would reccomend checking it out as many believe spreads show a good deal of what is behind actual demand in a given market. Spreads are one of the strategies that DTN uses in their 6 Factors Marketing Strategies.
To check out Ed's blog go to http://edsworld.wordpress.com/
Keep in mind that spreads at times can be lagging indicators as we typically see front months lead on rallies with defered months lagging; and vice versa when we see the markets under pressure (at least in my opinion).
Back to Neutral Nick; I have had many ask on what his overall outlook is looking like. You will find the spots on this blog with each and everyone of his trades as well as all of his booked gains/losses on closed positions, but here is what it looks like for all of his open corn, soybean, and wheat positions combinded. As mentioned earlier I will work towards an actual hard bottom line number that includes some allowance for slippage and commissions once Nick's old crop story grain marketing is done.
That does remind me; perhaps Nick should be looking at new crop grain marketing sometime soon?
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