Opening Comments

Below is a forward from Joel Fitch; who is our main Country Hedging contact.  He will be joining us for our MWC Marketing Hour Round Table on June 22^nd in Onida.  Please make sure to put this day on our calendars.

Opening comments thoughts are weaker across the board based on a weaker overnight session and weak outside markets.

In the overnight session new crop corn was down 8, old crop corn was off 5 cents, beans are off 8 cents, KC wheat was down a dime, MPLS wheat was off 12-13 cents, and CBOT wheat was off a nickel in the front month with some of the deferred months off much more.

At 8:50 outside markets have European wheat off about 1.8 %, equities are softer with the DOW down 85 points, crude oil is off 2.00 a barrel, and the US dollar is up 371 on the Cash index at 74.563.

Looks like we might have some risk in that we see fund liquidation based on the weak outside markets; keep in mind the funds own plenty of our grain and tops are always seen when the markets look the best.

Yesterday we had a USDA report that was rather bullish new crop corn; yet we where not able to close corn limit up; which was a little disappointing.  We did make new high closes which is good for the charts.  The rest of the report which is mentioned below wasn’t super friendly.

Look for rather choppy volatile markets as we move forward; ideas would be for a some sort of consolidation with a slight upward bias heading into the end of the month stock’s and acre report.  As seen below many are on the bullish side in terms of what actually will end up planted.

Basis remains on the firm side for all the grains which is another good fundamental factor leaning towards the higher price friendly side.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Thanks

A correction......or are the Bull Markets over for the Grains?

Was today a correction in our grain markets or has the tide changed?  Are the great bull markets of 2010-2011 coming to an end or was today just another natural (needed) correction?

As many others have been talking about lately such as http://www.dtn.com/ag/assets/thegatheringstorm.pdf it appears that we may be nearing the end.  As I stated in an agweb.com blog I think the time is near to have one foot either ready or already out the exit door.

Here are some of the things that look like they have perhaps started to change lately; indicating to me that things might be changing.

our bull markets do have some holes starting to form in them

1 russia exporting.......what I believe is the biggest change in our fundamentals........and my view is this is more negative the feed grains then quality wheat...............as that is what they are exporting.........
2 outside bearish months/weeks......key reversal seen in many grains and outside markets........like equities........some longer term trends have turned either sideways or down.............. seen the dtn link above for more detials
3 key reversals in many markets..........such as MPLS July today............couple year high followed by a close nearly 80 cents off of that high
4 Wheat in CBOT showing a constand series of lower high's........we hit the down trend perfectly a week or so ago..........now we are back near uptrend line support........will that hold or if it breaks will the selling really hit?
5 Crop conditions increasing in corn..........planting nearly finished.......weather forecasts seem to be changing...............European Rain........some heat units in other parts of the US that need them......95 ish in central south dakota today
6 over all economic situation..........feels like those markets have turned to sell the bounce..........not buy the break.......watching CNBC/Bloomberg....many are talking about risk diversification.......pulling money out perhaps?
7 funds caught wrong..........listing to top third........which is on agweb.com they commented how the funds had added about 50k contracts of corn......and at best they are around even...... and more then likely carrying a loss now
8 stages set for june report to not show the decreased stocks like many expect.........market is geared up for a bullish report looking at average trade estimates..............the report doesn't have to be bullish........last few months haven't been......that trend is perhaps changing
9 seasonal trends - I believe Ed Usset's rule is to not hold corn after July 4th; that is less then a month away
10 History repeats it self............high prices do cure high prices............also anyone notice when we made our lows in the grains??? about a year ago.........June 29th..........when where many of the 2008 highs made?  June 29th for corn.......  could we see an economic meltdown like we did in 08?  has the past couple years simply been a false correction in the big world picture?  Are things really better today then they where back then?.............

bottom line is all of the above is probably debatable........but i think for marketing and risk management purpose one foot should already be out the exit door............ or at the very least ready to make small PROFITABLE sales..........with little notice

$10.00 corn.........here we come !!!!

Or maybe not...........

I read in one of the agweb.com marketing discussion groups; which I am a regular poster in a couple possiblities of how bullish new crop corn fundamentals and balance sheets could get.  Perhaps they will; but don't forget seasonal history, the fact that even if things are bullish they could already be built into the price and the simple fact that things don't have to shake out as bullish as everyone things.

Here was my post in the marketing discussion group.

........."good point on the possible bullish numbers out there............but i think everyone knows how bullish things could get........but what happens to the S & D if you slash demand by 5-10% because of the high prices......... one thing that i thought last year when the russia news and exports got banned was it was more bullish corn because it took away feed supply on the market
i think the russia news now is the same.......more bearish cbot corn then anything.........so there is one reason to cut demand......what about the simply high prices.........july corn and july wheat trading par??? i think there might be some switching of demand????  and the simple fact that replacement corn doesn't work for many in the industry..........so via the above i think it is possible.....maybe not probable........but possible demand gets cut.........
what if on the supply side we end up 5% above trend line for yields????........10%..........as it really is too early to say that we won't.........after all look at the record 2009 crop in comparison to the present crop.........rather simliar............so far........what if it even comes in at trendline yield?
and then on the acres..........what happens if we don't cut acres.......but increase like we have for many years versus the march report..........

maybe none of the above happen.....and maybe corn goes straight to 10.00 or higher.........but if you plug in some of the above possilbities and add the nervous factor that the outside markets have............can you paint a picture where some of the above un likely possiblities play out..............anyone want to do the math on carryout based on some of those happening??

don't forget risk managment along with the fact that tops are always put in when the most are bullish"............

MWC Marketing Hour Round Table - Mock Trades

Today we had another session of mock trading during our Marketing Hour Round Table; which is held each week on Wed's at 3:30 in Onida at the Midwest Cooperatives office.

In today's trades the following happened

First Jordan added a trade to help his overall position; he sold his two long KC wheat and then he added 4 short 7.30 corn calls.  He reason behind this trade was simply to put all of his open positions into a group or basically he added a portfolio trade that after done created a profit and loss graph that when the options expire looks like a strangle.  Basically a flat looking graph.

Jordan's trades that are included in his "position  book" basically all of the trades combined other then his old trades from 3-4 weeks ago include the following

short 13.80 bean call and put
short 4 KWN 950 Puts
short 3 KWN 950 Calls
short 1 CN 720 call
short 1 CN 770 put
short 4 CN 730 calls
long  2 KWN at 938
short 2 KWN at 8.91

below is a look at his current and projected P L graph; it shows that he is behind but he does have a chance to come out a head if things can be rather quiet over the next couple weeks as seen below

Jeremey has something similar going; first off he did get stopped out of his short July wheat trade from last week; with a 14 cent loss.

He left all of his option trades unchanged and you can see the portfolio P L Graph below; he is up a little bit presently and probably should have put some sort of stop in place; so i guess we will see if that failure costs him this week

His option trades are short 3 8.20 calls (all are July CBOT)
Short 1 9.00 call
Short 4 7.50 puts
short 1 more 9.00 call
short 1 more 7.00 put
not included in this portfolio are his open Sept Strangle via a short 7.00 put and short 10.00 call.

Our rules are simply that we do 1 trade a week and can follow up as many open trades as deemed warranted; so the above shows my open trades.

My trade for this week was a little different. I decided to short Dec corn; risk and reverse at 6.90 and then for an objective I have another reverse play at 6.50.  Let's how i don't end up totally backwards on this trade; as I entered it at the close at 6.79  basis Dec corn.

Kevin chose to leave his open trades open so see last week's spread sheet for info on those.  For this week's trade he put in an order to sell MPLS July at 10.20; risking to 10.55 on a closing  basis with an objective of 9.40.

His open trades are an order to go short July beans and long dec corn; and he is long CBOT July wheat versus short KC July wheat.

Dan the man placed an order to buy KWN at 8.77 with an objective of 9.44 risking to 8.60.  His open trades include being short Dec corn with a stop at 6.85 on a close basis with an objective of 6.37 on a close; he is leaving that trade alone.  His other trade he entered long Nov beans; he moved a stop to 13.64 and has an objective of 13.90.

The one thing that I generically like about all the trades is the fact that everyone has some sort of cross hedge going on and that is just good risk management as no one will always out guess the markets.

As example Dan is short corn, but long beans and trying to get long wheat; while the portfolio trades that Jordan and myself have show a rather neutral bias and even Kevin's trades are rather diversified as he is in 5 different markets.

Neutral Nick Update June 1st; Russia smacking our wheat price put's Nick .....

The news of Russia back opening exports really has hurt our Mock Marketing Character Neutral Nick hard; as he found himself very out of whack on wheat today.  His corn and bean situation wasn't that bad nor out of whack with his goal.

Here are his trades to get back to a goal of staying delta short 100,000 bushels each of corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat. 

For corn he sold 107 of the 7.50 puts; once again July options...........which reminds me that he is down to only 3 weeks before all of his options expire.

In soybeans he sold 400 of the 13.80 puts.

In wheat he purchased 300 of the 7.00 puts, sold 2500 of the 8.00 calls, purchased 2500 of the 8.50 calls, and sold 5,000 of the 7.60 puts.

Ok I admit it; his plan sucks as he simply gets over leveraged; the good thing is that even though his plan has some many flaws hence so much that he has learned he is up over 5.0 million dollar any way you cut it and now has a chance to end up nearly $40 million.  While it is unreal that he would have had enough margin money to complete this plan; it looks good if he can find a bank with an unlimited account. 

Keep in mind that futures and options are not suitable for many and past performance doesn't mean similiar future results; bottom line futures and options are very risky.

Opening Grain Comments- Weaker Calls - Choppy Price action in the commodities on heals of a weak job report

Attached are a couple of webcasts from RJOMRT; they provide a little technical direction for corn, wheat, and the US Dollar.

Markets are called mixed this morning with July spring wheat the only grain in the green when the markets ended the overnight session as it was up 9-10 cents, Sept MPLS wheat was unchanged, July CBOT wheat was down 11, KC wheat was off 7, old crop corn was down 2, new crop corn was down 5, and beans where down 1.

At 8:40 outside markets have crude off about 15 cents, equities are softer with the DOW down about 50 points, and the US Dollar is softer with the cash index down 184 at 74.459.  European wheat is unchanged which is about 4 Euros a ton better then it was when the grains where off.

Look for some consolidation in today’s trades and watch fund money flow as the new month starts.  Basis remains firm but has started to show signs of softening for some of the wheat’s and many other of the grains simply get wider bid ask spreads almost daily.

Many to arrive spring wheat bids have rolled to the September futures; it looks like ours will move in the next day or so also as we simply can’t find anyone willing to buy against the July futures any more.

Technically yesterday did a little damage to some charts; wheat in particular for KC and CBOT; Corn and MPLS wheat still look fairly decent; most would say those charts are still longer term bull market charts.  The one risk out there is the huge positions the funds hold.

Yesterday’s crop conditions and progress report didn’t hold many major surprises with corn conditions at 63% well below last year’s but in line with trade estimates.  We are well behind planting but that is nothing new.

For more info on the yesterday’s report make sure to check out the Country Hedging Recap at

May 31, 2011 Crop Progress By Tim Emslie and Joel Fitch http://www.countryhedging.com/media/Research/Archive/2011_05_31Crop%20Progress5-31-2011.pdf

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Thanks

But Everyone already knew! So why was Wheat price down so hard today?

But everyone already knew that Russia was going to have a better crop then a year ago and everyone already knew that they where going to be back into the export market.

That was the cry the bull's had today as our markets got smack on what was suppose to be news that really wasn't a suprise.  So why did our markets get smacked so hard today?

Maybe the charts below will shed a little light on it; maybe they will just make one wonder even more?  The one thing that is clear is that technically the CBOT wheat's price action as well as KC price action really left some clues last week in the form of near doji's left on the charts as well as failures at resistance levels.  The MPLS chart below isn't as clear and to me looks a little more freindly then it's wheat sister's in CBOT and KC.

Opening Comments 5-31-11 Grain Market Called weaker on Russia News to lift export ban

Markets are called mixed this morning behind a volatile over night session and supportive outside markets. 

When the overnight session was over old crop corn was up 2 cents, new crop corn was down 4, MPLS wheat was off 11 cents, KC wheat was down 17, beans where up a penny, and CBOT wheat was down 18 cents.  At 9:00 outside markets have European wheat up about 1 % (after being off nearly 5% yesterday), crude is up about 1.80 a barrel, and the equities are firmer with the DOW up 100 points.

The big news over the weekend was Russia lifting their wheat export ban; effective July 1^st.  Some rumors are already out there on business done because of this.  Many have expected this in the market for some time now; but the actual news lead to a hard sell off in the European wheat market; as yesterday European wheat lost nearly 5% which on 8.00 wheat is 40 cents and 10.00 wheat is 50 cents.  Last night our markets opened down rather hard on this news and the European weakness as we seen wheat down 35 cents or so on the CBOT; while the hard wheat’s where down nearly 30 at their lows. 

Despite the weakness seen where the overnight left off things at one time where quiet a bit worse as even old crop corn was 15 cents off of it’s overnight session lows.

We will have a crop progress update this afternoon which is expected to show corn planted in the 82-90% area and rather little change expected in spring wheat planting.  Crop conditions will also be out in this afternoon’s update.

This a.m. we will have an export inspections report out showing export shipments.

 Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Charts for Grains - Corn, MPLS Wheat, CBOT Wheat, Soybeans, Spread Charts 5-27-11

Here are some various charts with various studies including the Tee Line - 8 Day Expontial Moving Average, Stochastics and various trend lines.

Another Neutral Nick Update via the nice and volatile commodity (grain) markets.

It looks like our Mock grain trading character Neutral Nick; who has a grain marketing plan of staying short delta bushels of 100,000 bushels for each corn, soybeans, and CBOT wheat had another update today.  He is using the a delta neutral hedging type of style........but instead of long options Nick is normal just short options.  Basically if his bank roll is big enough he thinks his program or grain hedging style will add more money to his bottom line via selling the volatility and riding time out thus picking up Theta.

Today Nick did something a little different then normal..........he bought back in the money options that had seen much of the time erosion go by and then to keep on the theme of always collecting premium he sold options that helped he get close to his grain marketing plan goal of being short 100,000 bushels.

With the market movements lately Nick found himself buying in the money call options while he sold at or near the money put options.  Net he still collected money and the good thing that Nick has had going for him self is the fact that he is now up about 6.9 million dollars.

Keep in mind the risk that he is taking and the fact that it isn't suitable for many if any; plus past results don't mean the same thing happens in the future.

To get back towards 100,000 bushels Nick made the following trades.

He purchased 500 of the 7.00 July Corn calls and sold 1865 of the July 750 corn Puts. 

In CBOT July wheat he Purchased 500 of the 7.50 July Wheat calls and sold 2555 of the July 8.00 puts.

In July Soybeans he purchased 100 of the July 13.00 Soybean Calls and sold 272 of the July 13.80 Soybean puts.

I would note that as I was going threw Nick's trades and possiblities on what to do to get back towards his goal on bushels sold the thought of simply buy back or closing all of his positions cross my mind.  After all if you don't go broke making sales that make sense how would he go broke locking in nearly 7 million dollars in profits on his hedge account.  Call it fake greed if you will but I decided to adjust in a different manner and ride it out.  The good thing that Nick has going for him time value; he is down to just a few weeks.

Below are updated P and L Graphs.

Neutral Nick update

Well we are done to a month to the day.

The day that the options expire that our Mock Grain Marketing Character Neutral Nick has been using; it has been a long rather stressful ride for him in these volatile markets.  Nick stil has a chance to make it huge; but he also has a chance to lose the farm in the finally few weeks if he doesn't do a good job managing his very much over leveraged position.

Grain Markets - Opening Calls June 24th; Mixed calls for commodities!

The grain markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a mixed overnight session and mixed to supportive outside markets.

In the overnight session old crop corn was down 5 cents, new crop corn was up a penny, beans where up 6-8 cents, KC wheat was off a penny, MPLS wheat was down 2, and CBOT wheat was off 6 cents.  At 9:15 outside markets have European wheat off about 1%, crude is up about 2.00 a barrel, the US dollar is weaker with the cash index down 211 at 75.893, and equities are bouncing a little this a.m. with the DOW up 33 points.

Buy High and Sell Low ..........Right???

Buy High and Sell Low ..........Right???

Only when fear and greed rule one's marketing plan.............don't let them stand in your way as in grain marketing and trading the objective is to buy low and sell high!

Opening Grain Market Comments 5-23-11

The grain markets are called mixed to weaker this a.m. following an overnight session that started off firmer but faded weaker throughout the night on the heals a weaker outside markets lead by a firmer US dollar and crude oil pressure.

In the overnight session old crop corn was off a penny, new crop corn was off 4-5 cents, beans where down 3-7 cents, KC wheat was off a nickel, MPLS wheat was off 3 cents, and CBOT was off 11 cents.  At 8:35 outside markets have European wheat off about 1 %, equities have just opened with the DOW down 170 points, crude is off about 3.20 a barrel, and the US dollar has the cash index up 863 at 72.298.

It is very early to call; but it looks like a risk off day; which probably isn’t the best for the grains and commodities considering the amount of ownership the funds and index funds still have in our markets.

The story today is much like the past couple of week’s overall we have friendly fundamentals but the outside markets have been very hit and miss thus causing a clash between the two; add to that the volatility has created battles between the technical’s and fundamentals from time to time.  As example most of the grains have moved back up to resistance levels and reached over bought status.

Look for another day of volatile markets as we move forward.  We will have export inspections out this a.m. and this afternoon a crop progress report that is expected to show corn planting near 80 % finished.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Also don’t forget we will have another session of MWC Marketing Hour Round Table this Wednesday in Onida at 3:30.  We will go over some charts, strategies for marketing, and then place some mock trades; everyone is invited; but please RSVP as space is limited.

Market rally over or just starting?

Here are a look at a couple of charts; as I ask questions like should one sell the rally or buy the break.  Is the present commodity price up move nearly over or just getting going?  Have we seen the highs on old crop corn, near crop corn, wheat, soybeans, crude........the low in the dollar in? 

Here are some charts that might help you with your opinion of the above; as for me; I will stay on the neutral side and leave things with a statement.  You don't go broke making sales that make $ense.  So from a risk managment grain marketing plan prospective nothing wrong with making a profitable sale.

As for the other questions; my view is that maybe old crop corn has a little story left in it; but personally I think any additional rally in some of the other grains will be much slower and harder then the rally we seen this past week.  Meaning a rally to new highs can be done but I am leaning towards the bearish side; which might prove wrong as the past week I don't think anyone would have wanted to stand in front of the freight train we have seen for wheat, corn, and soybeans. 

Here are some charts showing some technical points of interest.

Neutral Nick Update Shell Shocked via commodity price movement

First off I want to wish my wife Happy Anniversay!

As for our MOCK trading character Neutral Nick; he got shell shocked so to speak; as he like many producers has been a little busy; and he found his hedge account not where he wished it to be.

A couple days ago Nick looked at where his hedge account was in regards to profit/loss; before the movements the past several days he was up around $5 million dollars in profits; while yesterday his acount had fallen all the way back to around even; after the drop in volatilty his account today showed gains off about 1.3 million.

Grain Market Comments for a very strong session - May 17th grains closed higher

Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a mixed overnight session and weaker outside markets.

IN the overnight session CBOT wheat was up 1 cent, MPLS wheat was up a penny, KC wheat was off a penny, new crop corn was up 5 cents, new crop beans where up 7, old crop corn was up 7, and old crop beans where up 4 cents.  At 9:25 outside markets are weaker/mixed European wheat is up about 1 percent, equities are softer with the DOW off 40 points, and crude is off about 60 cents a barrel.

Outside markets with fund liquidation/risk coming off the table versus friendly fundamentals appears to be the story this a.m.  A battle that has been going on for weeks and continues to lead the headlines; weather is supportive to our markets as it simply remains either too dry or too wet in many places.

Winter Wheat conditions dropped yesterday which was a little bit of a surprise, while spring wheat came in at only 36% planted which is near record slow, corn planting was 63%, and beans at 22%. 

It is about 10:40 now and markets are open with the grains holding in there tremendously well despite the rather weak outside markets.  Presently we have the equities under pressure with the DOW down 165 points, the US Dollar is firmer with the cash index up 350 at 75.82, crude is off 2.00 a barrel, while the grains have CBOT wheat up 9 cents, KC wheat up 2, MPLS wheat up 5, beans off a dime, corn up 2 cents on the old crop, and new crop corn up about a nickel.

So far I consider the grain price action great; wheat in particular having gained on the overnight session despite the outsides.  One caution would be that wheat is being lead by CBOT wheat which could be due to the quality concerns starting to hit the SRW wheat area (scab and disease with all of the rain) but it CBOT wheat leading the way for wheat’s strength today could be more risk coming off the table as the funds on Friday where short CBOT wheat and long the other wheat’s.

When everything was said and done the grains all ended up showing some strength and closed very firm across the board; wheat lead the way with CBOT wheat up 28, KC wheat was up 19, and MPLS wheat was up 26, Corn was up 23 on old crop, while NC corn was up 18, beans where up 14, crude bounced back towards unchanged and at 5:30 is up about a dollar in the night session, the US dollar is down 101 points at 75.369 on the cash index, and the equity markets bounce well off of their lows with the DOW closing down 69 points.

Overall a great day; especially considering where the outside markets where for most of the grain market session; many thought we could see the grains close in the red; but we did manage good solid strength as most of our grains close near the highs when all was said and done.

Basis strong, spreads supportive, weather supportive (dry in Europe, dry in the south, Wet in Ohio, ND, Indiana, SRW Areas), and outside markets bouncing all helped the grains today in very impressive action.  Technically it appears we are still in sideway’s markets; but a decent bounce could turn some signals into buy’s in the near future.

Birdseed buyers seem to have more interest the past couple of days as it appears that business has picked up; I would note that business on the books via increased shipments is the main attraction but I have also had some buyers inquire about purchasing product that really seems to be in tight hands.

Watch for more volatile price action as we move forward; there has been rumors lately that Russia and the Black Sea region will be back in the export game rather soon.  That in itself wouldn’t be the most friendly thing for our grain markets.

Also don’t forget tomorrow we will have another session of our MWC Marketing Hour Round Table; in Onida Wednesday at 3:30.  We will be updating charts, going threw strategies and then do some more mock trades.  We hope to see you then.

Thanks

Grain Markets Opening Comments 5-16-11 stronger markets ...China buying corn again or another commodity sell off waiting to happen?

Markets are called mixed to higher this a.m. from a firmer overnight session and mixed outside markets.

In the overnight session CBOT wheat was up 10, MPLS wheat was up 12, KC wheat was up 8, beans where up 3-4 cents, old crop corn was up 11, and new crop corn was up 6.  At 9:15 outside markets have crude down 80 cents a barrel, European wheat up 1-1 ½ percent, the US dollar is weaker down 333 at 75.424 on the US Dollar cash index, and equities are softer with the DOW down 25 points.  Crude, the US dollar, and equities are more supportive to the grains now then they where when the grain paused their session at 7:15.

China’s rumors of buying old and new crop corn, weather, and a technical bounce in oversold markets are the main reasons being talked about this a.m. for last night’s bounce and a possible continuation of a bounce this a.m.  On the weather front quality concerns for the SRW crop has popped it’s head and cold weather hasn’t allowed for the corn crop to progress much.  This afternoon we will have a planting progress and crop conditions report out.  Estimates are all over the board for corn planting progress as I have seen the from 55% to 70% planted.

We will have export shipments out this a.m. at 10:00 and those may be watched a little more then normal due to the fact that last week the USDA cut exports for corn and beans.  If we can see shipments pick up over the next several weeks then there is a chance that the bulls are correct in regards to last week’s reasoning behind the cut in exports.  That it was simply logistics due to flooding and that the sales/shipments should pick back up once logistics allow.  Lower prices seem to have helped the demand picture in general and it has been heavily noted that corn basis is firmer.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Here is a Neutral Nick update.

USDA CROP REPORT- Balance Sheet Update- MWC Marketing Hour Round Table - Mock Trades

Below are the mock trades placed this week at during our weekly MWC Marketing Hour Round Table; which was held today Wed at 3:30 (this and every week at that time).

During this session we listened to Country Hedgings update on the USDA Report (it can be found at http://www.countryhedging.com/ )

We then went threw some other info on today's report, then went on to our charts and technical analysis of the recent price action, and finally we followed up last weeks trades and added a new trade this week.  One thing that has been noted is that perhaps more follow up or changes would have been done to the trades if we had been updating on a daily basis; such as moving stops up on profitable trades; whereas the way it was done we actually seen profitable trades turn into losers a couple of times.  But that is part of what we are trying to do; learn some of the good things and bad things from various methods of trading/hedging/grain marketing.

This week you see we have some more unique trades and a couple of them are multi leg and honestly hard to evaluate because they entail more then 1 option.  There are also a couple of simple buy at X, risk to X, with an objective of X, and then a trade that is like a risk and reverse trade.

See below for the trades and results of previous trades.  Kevin did have a good one that earned him the nickname Kevin the Great as he had one MPLS trade that returned him 63 cents profit, and Dan the Man has managed to lock in a couple of winning trades, while myself and Jordan struggled on a couple of trades thus focused on some option trades.

Below the trades you will see some info on the USDA Report; the charts are skewed as they show year over year and then month by month. 

US Carryout Numbers					World Carryout Numbers
	Corn	Beans	Wheat			Corn	Beans	Wheat
’00	1.899		0.876		’00	6	1	7.5
’01	1.574		0.687		’01	5.8	1.2	7.4
’02	1.087	0.178	0.491		’02	4.8	1.5	6.1
’03	0.958	0.112	0.547		’03	3.6	1.2	4.8
’04	2.113	0.256	0.54		’04	5.1	1.8	5.6
’05	1.967	0.449	0.571		’05	4.9	1.9	5.4
’06	1.304	0.574	0.456		’06	4.3	2.3	4.7
’07	1.624	0.205	0.306		’07	5.1	1.9	4.4
’08	1.673	0.138	0.657		’08	5.7	1.5	6.1
’09	1.708	0.151	0.976		’09	5.7	2.2	7.3
10-May	1.818	0.365	0.997		10-May	6.071	2.428	7.279
10-Jun	1.573	0.36	0.991		10-Jun	5.8	2.461	7.126
10-Jul	1.373	0.36	1.093		10-Jul	5.554	2.49	6.872
10-Aug	1.312	0.36	0.952		10-Aug	5.48	2.378	6.421
10-Sep	1.116	0.35	0.902		10-Sep	5.337	2.337	6.534
10-Oct	0.902	0.265	0.853		10-Oct	5.211	2.257	6.418
10-Nov	0.827	0.185	0.848		10-Nov	5.085	2.256	6.339
10-Dec	0.832	0.165	0.858		10-Dec	5.118	2.209	6.493
11-Jan	0.745	0.14	0.818		11-Jan	5	2.141	6.54
11-Feb	0.675	0.14	0.818		11-Feb	4.823	2.138	6.531
11-Mar	0.675	0.14	0.843		11-Mar	4.848	2.143	6.684
April	0.675	0.14	0.839		April	4.82	2.239	6.717
May	0.675	0.14	0.839		May	4.8	2.3	6.7
2012	0.9	0.16	0.702		2012	5.084	2.3	6.66