Charts posted - KC Wheat, Corn, Soybeans

here are some charts

Dec Corn Chart 6-5-2012

Here is the Dec corn futures price chart.

It shows we done some technical damage today.

Very near important support that really needs to hold or it will open more technical downside.

Buy the break or sell the Rally?

Are we in markets that we should be buying the breaks or should we be selling the rallies?  How much upside potential is out there if a perfect storm develops with all of the variables that are out there?  What about downside risk; is it still possible to see a 2008 like breakdown?  

I don't know for sure; nor does anyone; so if one is looking to marketing grain and have a plan the best choice is still probably risk management and in volatile markets that means risk diversification thus perhaps making sales in smaller increments then normal.

Here are a couple charts to help one decide if it is sell the rally time or buy the break time.

charts for grains on July 7th

here are some charts for the grain markets for July

Will next week's USDA report be the catalyst that moves the markets down even another leg?  Or will it be another shocker that fuels the bulls and lets our bull market keep running.  Perhaps next week's weather forecasts, along with the outside markets, and the coming USDA report set price direction for the next several months.  Do the seasonals and the rule of not holding unpriced corn past July hold true this year once again or do we see the markets end up repeating last years strength during the time of the year when it is least expected.

Bottom line is the markets appear to have plenty of risk's for both up or down price direction; don't be afraid to have some sort of plan to diversfiy that risk.

How do I hedge my 2012 corn crop and come out with the best return?

How do I hedge my 2012 corn crop and come out with the best return?

Below is a look at a few charts that tell us how history says one is suppose to hedge the big bull markets; as always it doesn't mean it will be the same this time around.

The heart of the question is if a producer has a good idea and portion of his costs of raising his 2012 corn crop how does he go about marketing it.  Forget the method for starters; let's go right to the heart of the matter; where does one place his hedges.  Should he really sell 2012 at a discount to 2011 if the reason he is selling is he thinks prices will go down?  Probably not because softer prices usually go along with more supply thus creating a carry in the market or at least taking away part of the inverse that is presently out there.

Where would the old school say to hedge it at; on this I know I have learned via being a grain merchandiser one is simply suppose to place hedges where they belong or you might get burned and if you get burned too many times you will be sleeping on the street.

So there you have it; old school versus the bear market theory; bear market theory says place your hedges in the Dec 2011 crop while the old school says that might work most of the time but the one time it doesn't work.  OUCH!

Personal opinon is that ECON 101 will rule out thus causing increased supply with decreased demand therby creating a bear market sometime in the next 5-6 months therefor I place the hedges in the Dec 11 all day long until I see that we are going to have much supply come Oct-Nov.  My thinking that is we always see some sort of harvest pressure; I have never went a year not seeing grain piled some place or another during the winter and I don't think this will be any different.

Here are some charts that might help you make your decision.

Oh by the way if in 2008 you would have placed your 2009 sales in Dec 08 futures you could have hit over 8.60 a bushel for corn; while the high of that Dec 2009 contract was 7.00 ish.

The Commodity Price Sky is falling........or is it just another natural correction in a bull market for grains?

The Commodity Price Sky is falling........or is it just another natural correction in a bull market for grains?

Below are some charts to help you decide if today's price action was natural in nature, maybe a "head fake to scare producers into sales" or if the tide has turned.  My personal opinion is that it is a correction but if we follow up the weakness much more threw these support levels I think I will be jumping on the boat that the rally is over.  My thoughts for some time have been to simply manage risk and try not to pick a top; but if I have to pick a top I think it happens a little closer to the June 30th report; much like it did in 2008 and simliar to how the lows where made last year on June 29th.

Make sure you take the my opinion for what you paid for it.

Here are a few charts showing some various support levels and thoughts on where we might be heading from here.

Market rally over or just starting?

Here are a look at a couple of charts; as I ask questions like should one sell the rally or buy the break.  Is the present commodity price up move nearly over or just getting going?  Have we seen the highs on old crop corn, near crop corn, wheat, soybeans, crude........the low in the dollar in? 

Here are some charts that might help you with your opinion of the above; as for me; I will stay on the neutral side and leave things with a statement.  You don't go broke making sales that make $ense.  So from a risk managment grain marketing plan prospective nothing wrong with making a profitable sale.

As for the other questions; my view is that maybe old crop corn has a little story left in it; but personally I think any additional rally in some of the other grains will be much slower and harder then the rally we seen this past week.  Meaning a rally to new highs can be done but I am leaning towards the bearish side; which might prove wrong as the past week I don't think anyone would have wanted to stand in front of the freight train we have seen for wheat, corn, and soybeans. 

Here are some charts showing some technical points of interest.

Couple of Dec Corn Charts

Here are a couple of Decemeber Corn Charts.  First is a 60 min chart, the next chart is a daily Corn Chart, and the last is a weekly Dec corn chart.