Markets are called mixed this a.m. after a choppy mixed
overnight session.
When the overnight session ended Corn was unchanged on old
crop after being up a dime at one time, Dec corn was up 2, KC wheat was off
6-7, MPLS wheat off 5-6 cents a bushel, CBOT wheat was off 6-7 cents, July beans
up 6 ½, and Nov beans up 3-4 cents.
Outside markets have a US dollar about unchanged, equity futures are
pointing towards a mixed (unchanged) start, gold is up a couple bucks, and
crude is down about 30 cents a barrel.
1.
Markets started firm last night with the crop
progress that was a hair further behind then most had estimated; but as the
night wore on we gave most of our gains back.
With wheat leading some of the pressure; perhaps some of the wheat
pressure is coming from the wheat crop tour which started in good areas. The couple of comments I seen on twitter were
2.
Our first stop of
the day in Riley County, Kansas, got an est. yield of 58.1 bpa. That stuff was
short and young. #wheattour13”
Field 2. West of
Clay Center, KS. 7.5 inch rows. Visually 54 bu yield. 64 heads per foot. pic.twitter.com/m8eQZjoWQP
Field 1. Approx 5
miles west of Riley, KS. Will head out about May15-20. Should make 60bu pretty
easily. pic.twitter.com/QQ7TVAOo1G”
Keep in mind that
this is expected in this area; but as they move the tour on we should see more
mixed to poor results.
It still looks like
Iowa and other parts of the corn belt will get hammered with moisture in the
next few days; but some of the 6-10 and 8-14 day maps show normal to below
normal perception chances with the exception of the far Eastern corn belt. So a slight change from yesterday. As these change the look for our market to
potentially move.
Watch weather forecasts
and wheat crop tour results for more market direction. Also keep in mind that some charts have went
through some resistance points; but others have moved right up to resistance
areas. In regards to marketing I know
that one thing that Ed Usset has always done is write a marketing plan that is
pro-active trying to make sales in the time period when we could see weather
scares. I think yesterdays move counts
as a weather scare. Listening to him
speak and reading his book lets you know that the reason Ed likes to make sales
in this time period is because of the strong seasonal tendencies that corn has;
which is to move up towards May/June before falling off a cliff starting around
July. Last year was very different and
early sales didn’t work good but this year’s fundamentals and the job of the
market appears to be different.
As it sits today
even with a yield of 150 on 90 million acres planted we will have to find
demand that we lost this past year. Very
possible; but keep in mind that to only get 90 million acres we need the
present fear to be reality. The yield
now that won’t be decided for some time; but the stuff that does get in the ground
looks like it will have good subsoil moisture.
Trend line yields are close to 160-170.
Last year as the
yields and drought hit the job of the market became to curb demand. That is not the case today; and for that to
be the case for year over year we will have to have a complete train
wreck. The job of the market is still to
find demand at least until we can do a better job of pegging what our crop size
is.
I think all we are
doing now is adding some premium back into the market. Fundamentally things are more friendly but
not nearly friendly enough to sustain much higher prices for a long period of
time. So use what the market gives you
wisely.
Please give us a
call if there is anything we can do for you.
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