Opening Comments 4-10-2013 - Freeze in US Wheat - USDA April 10th Supply and Demand report table

Markets are called mixed this a.m. on a choppy mixed overnight session; but really we are in a wait and see mode.  Waiting for the USDA report which is out at 11 a.m. central time.  One of our brokers used to say it best; “may as well go home and come back at 11”  and that is the same thing today.  What happened last night and what happens in the next couple of hours will take a back seat to the USDA report.

In the overnight session corn was unchanged, beans were also unchanged, KC wheat was off a nickel a bushel, MPLS wheat was off 4 cents a bushel, and CBOT wheat was off a penny.  Outside markets have DOW futures up a little bit, the US dollar near unchanged, gold is down 10 bucks and ounce, and crude is down 40 cents.

The only other thing I really see out there this a.m. is more talk about is weather and that seems to be supportive; but also could be a buy the rumor sell the fact.  For wheat in particular there has been the talk of the frost and last night it sounded like plenty of places got cold; but the forecast was in the news for a while; so will it be enough for wheat to continue its strength.

Here is a Reuters article on the weather.  Keep in mind that today’s report should help set the stages as to how important weather will or won’t be based on how tight our current balance sheet is or isn’t.

Freeze harming US wheat; rain and snow stall corn seeding - RTRS

10-Apr-2013 07:26

• Winter wheat in southwest Plains likely harmed
• Rains and snow keep spring fieldwork at a minimum
• Moisture to help ease drought stress

By Sam Nelson
CHICAGO, April 10 (Reuters) - Freezing temperatures early on Wednesday likely harmed winter wheat in the southwest Plains, while rain and snow in the Plains and Midwest slowed or stalled corn plantings even as they eased drought stress, an agricultural meteorologist said.
"There was probably some damage to wheat, it dropped to the teens (degrees Fahrenheit) to low 20s F in the Texas Panhandle and down to 12 F this morning in southeast Colorado," said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc.
Karst said the cold snap harmed wheat from southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle.
"It will be cold again tomorrow, so there will probably be more damage," he said.
Heavy snowfall blanketed the northern Midwest at mid-week with 20 inches of snow in Valentine, Nebraska and 6.0 inches to 12.0 inches or more elsewhere, according to Karst.
Rains of 1.0 to 2.0 inches or more covered most of the western Midwest and the rainfall will move into the eastern Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, he said.
"Moisture in the western Midwest will be beneficial, it won't end the drought but it will add to soil moisture levels," Karst said.
Delays in corn plantings will be widespread this week and only sporadic seedings will take place next week.
"This will shut down plantings for now, and next week, there may be rain off-and-on which will slow fieldwork," he said.
U.S. farmers are not happy with the cold and snow that may be causing more harm to their winter wheat crop but the April showers are being welcomed following the worst drought in over 50 years that trimmed crop output last year and has been stressing the winter wheat crop.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday said 36 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was in good to excellent condition, up from 34 percent a week ago but well below the year-ago rating of 61 percent. (Full Story)
The drought has taken a toll on the winter wheat crop that has broken away from its winter dormant or hibernation status and is now growing, leaving it vulnerable to harm from cold weather or another spate of dryness.
Drought conditions are retreating slowly in the U.S. Plains, according to a report issued last Thursday by a consortium of state and federal climatologists.
Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA Weather Services said that at the end of March, 6 inches to 8 inches (15 cm to 20 cm) of rain were needed to bring soil moisture levels back to normal in much of Nebraska and a corner of northeast Kansas.
Keeney said 2 inches to 4 inches (5 cm to 10 cm) were needed in the balance of the central Plains and western Iowa.

The Drought Monitor report, which tracks the U.S. land area stricken by drought on a weekly basis, said the Plains, which have been the hardest hit, was seeing improvement because of rains and snow in the past two months.

(Editing by Bernadette Baum)
((sam.nelson@thomsonreuters.com)(1-312-408-8721)(Reuters Messaging: sam.nelson.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

  

Here is the USDA report table; from RTRS as well.

RPT-TABLE-USDA April crop supply and demand summary - RTRS

10-Apr-2013 07:52

April 5 (Reuters) - This table summarizes key production data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's supply/demand report, which will be released at

11:00 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Wednesday, April 10.

U.S. ending stocks are in billions of bushels. World ending stocks and
production are in millions of tonnes.
The 2012/13 marketing year for wheat began on June 1, 2012, and will end on
May 31, 2013. For corn and soybeans, the 2012/13 marketing year began on Sept.
1, 2012, and will end on Aug. 31, 2013.

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                    USDA 2012/13 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks  

            USDA April      Average of      Range of          USDA March

            2012/13         analysts'       analysts'         2012/13

            end-stocks      estimates       estimates         end-stocks

            estimates                                         estimates

Wheat        _____           0.727          0.700-0.755       0.716

Corn         _____           0.812          0.625-0.925       0.632

Soybeans     _____           0.136          0.107-0.160       0.125

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                 USDA 2012/13 global grain and soybean ending stocks  

            USDA April      Average of      Range of         USDA March

            2012/13         analysts'       analysts'        2012/13

            end-stocks      estimates       estimates        end-stocks

            estimates                                        estimates

Wheat         _______       178.550      176.900-180.000     178.230

Corn          _______       119.104      108.130-125.000     117.480

Soybeans       ______        59.810       56.760-61.000       60.210

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                            USDA world production  

                Apr USDA       Mar USDA       Apr USDA    Mar USDA

                2011/12         2011/12        2012/13     2012/13

                estimate       estimate       estimate    estimate

Argentina wheat   _____            15.50      _____       11.00

Australia wheat   _____            29.92     _____       22.00

Canada wheat      _____            25.29     _____       27.20

EU-27 wheat      ______           137.23    ______      132.25

India wheat       _____            86.87     _____       94.88

FSU-12 wheat     ______           115.03      _____       77.21

Russia wheat      _____            56.24      _____       37.72

Kazakhstan wheat  _____            22.73       ____        9.84

Ukraine wheat     _____            22.32      _____       15.76

China corn       ______           192.78     ______      208.00

Argentina corn    _____            21.00      _____       26.50

South Africa corn _____            12.42      _____       13.00

FSU-12 corn       _____            34.12     _____       32.18

Ukraine corn      _____            22.84      _____       20.92

Brazil corn       _____            73.00      _____       72.50

Argentina soy     _____            40.10      _____       51.50

Brazil soy        _____            66.50       _____       83.50

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Midwest Cooperatives