Morning
Summary: Investors
in the US stock market should be happy as the S&P 500 is showing a 14%
return on the year, while the NASDAQ up 16% on the year. Many readers,
especially the "doom and gloom" crowd, questioned my call last
year when I said the US equity markets were going to be very strong
performers. I should also point out that for the first time in 2012 - all
50 US states have gas prices below $4.00 per gallon. Hawaii has the
nation’s highest price at $3.98, while Missouri is the lowest at $2.96 per
gallon. Talks out of Washington are that we might be getting closer to a
compromise as Obama is now proposing tax increases on those earning more
than $400K, rather than $250K, while Boehner is offering to go ahead and
let taxes rise on wealthy Americans' "investment income."
The "outside" macro markets are trading in our favor
this morning, but end-of-year adjustments may trump traditional type trade
action. This is the main reason I suggested staying close to the shore and
limiting your trade activity. Remember, some of the most seasoned and best
traders in the business often have a tough time navigating in the
pre-holiday waters. As a rule of thumb, when you see the locals moving
closer to the shore and in many cases completely out of the water you
should think twice before diving in head first.
Money-flow
continues to be one of my biggest concerns for the Ag markets moving
forward. Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks the flow
of money invested in commodity funds, released data showing money moving
into commodities had increased by $21.6 billion this year, essentially up
more than 90% from the already significant gains in 2011. My question is
will money continue to pour in or have we reached a short-term peak? Citi
Bank analyst seem to be thinking the bull run in commodities is over,
while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley think there is still more room to
the upside. A Bloomberg poll of more than 130 traders that recently came
across my desk showed they suspect precious metals could lead the commodity
markets in 2013 with returns as high as 25%. They were also thinking the
grains could advance by 18%, and industrial metals by some 16%. I would
like to say I am in agreement, but I continue to contend it feels like
big-money is looking more for a way OUT, rather than a way to allocate more
funding into Ag commodities right now. The CFTC just recently reported,
that as a group, hedge funds had reduced their bullish bets on commodities
by about 35% since September. I will continue to monitor this closely as we
move forward.
Soybean bulls are
concerned about the first drop in export inspections below 40 million in
several weeks. Bears are thinking China has throttled back demand to some
degree as the year-end approaches. There is also talk that Mississippi
River restrictions are slowing bushels to the Gulf. The bulls however
remain hopeful that China will continue booking a larger than normal number
of US beans on fears that South American logistical issues could cause some
major delays in soybean deliveries during the 1st and 2nd Quarter of 2013.
From my perspective we continue to see strong demand, as the USDA announces
new sales almost every morning. Will US supplies be extremely tight in
early 2013? There is no question, absolutely! The concern I have is will
the funds be willing to play this short-window of opportunity, and if they
do elect to play the game, will it prompt a traditional rally in the
flat-price or will the opportunities be more spread related? My fear is that the funds may be apprehensive to
dive head first into the soy market with such a massive South American crop
projected right around the next corner, making the trade extremely
difficult to navigate. Keep in mind most analyst continue to estimate the
Brazilian soybean crop will come in between 79 and 83MMT's, about 25% larger
than last year. I am also hearing talks that beans in certain areas of
Brazil are going to start being harvested in the next three or four
weeks...here we go! This ride could get wild.
Demand continues to be
a major concern for both the corn and wheat markets. Most analysts are now
thinking US wheat exports are off by about 75 million bushels and corn
exports are off by about 250 million bushels. The corn market is failing to
excite new interest and therefore money-flow seems to becoming bored with the
story, at least until the trade learns more about the size of the US corn
crop and what type of reduction in "harvested acres" will be
made. If your looking to play the bullish
side of the corn market I would suggest the bulls spreads rather than outright
flat price positions. There could be some strength down the road in the
long MAR13 vs short JUL13 spread or the long MAR13 vs short MAY13 spread,
especially if supplies of quality corn end up as tight as some are
predicting. We are not currently in these spreads but they are on our radar
screen, and I am getting closer to pulling the trigger.
Technically traders are
fearful a close in DEC13 corn below last weeks low of $6.18 could open up
the door to testing the $5.95 to $6.00 level. Traders will also be watching
the MAR13 contract for a break below the $7.14 area as confirmation of more
weakness. New crop soybeans (NOV13 contract) seem to be struggling to break
through the $13.35 to $13.40 level. Producers looking to make a few more
new crop bean sales might want to consider pulling the trigger if we make
it back up to that area. Wheat, yesterday, technically closed below the
200-day moving average.
Weather,
from my perspective, remains neutral to bearish. There is some additional
talk of an El Nino type patterns starting to develop. I know this bearish
rhetoric isn't what producers in the dry US growing regions want to hear,
but with conditions in Brazil almost ideal, no real problems to report in
China, and forecasters calling for more moisture across most of the Central
US it's hard to get real bullish. Keep
in mind there is talk of significant snowfall out west and maybe a foot or
more hitting the ground up in Iowa and Wisconsin. There is also some good
snowfall being forecast for areas of Kansas and Nebraska during the
Christmas holiday. Some forecasters are thinking the moisture could end up
missing the lower Plains and the Delta regions keeping it warm and dry.
Net-net there is just not much of a weather story to pull money that has
been on the sideline back to the bullish side of the game.
Water levels along the
Mississippi continue to remain a major concern. Most sources had been
reporting water levels at St. Louis to be just under -3.5ft with thoughts
of the water level could drop to -5.0 before the end of December, possibly
closing down the river. From what I heard
yesterday though from the Army Corps of Engineers, it sounds like the
Mississippi River is going to be able to stay open all winter. The talk is
the Corps has ramped up their dredging efforts and have started blasting
away at underwater rock formations. They have also started releasing more
water into the river from Carlyle Lake in southern Illinois. It is
estimated this will raise the river by six inches at Thebes, Illinois, by
around Christmas time. Though ultimately all of these moves should
help keep the river open, you should understand it could make current
transportation more difficult and limited as the crews try and navigate
around the Corps efforts. This could ultimately start pushing freight
charges higher and for some producers cause the basis to slip a bit.
Wheat prices continue
to fall under pressure and there is now talk US wheat is by far the
cheapest on the market. I suspect with prices under pressure Egypt or
possibly even Brazil might step in and grab a few US bushels. If this takes
place look for the US wheat market to make a little rebound from the
low-end of its current trading range. Those who are short might want to
temporarily move to the sideline. Keep in mind however that SovEcon is now
estimating Russian wheat exports at 13.3MMT's. This compares to the USDA
thinking Russia would export somewhere around 10MMT's. Point is if Russian
exports are that much higher, US exports could eventually pushed a little
lower. One good thing to point out is the fact Ukraine's wheat stocks as of
Dec 1st had fell to 6.5 million tons down significantly from the 8.2
million reported the previous month. With total stock now dangerously close
to the supply needed to cover domestic demand, the Ukraine government may
have no choice but to halt exports. Keep in mind the trade has been looking
for this to happen the past several weeks so I doubt there will be any
major excitement when it is made official.
*Don't forget
January options go off the board on Friday. Those who have in-the-money
positions may want to make some pre-holiday adjustments prior to Fridays
option expiration.
*The National
Association for Business Economics says it is looking for the economy
to grow in 2013 by 2.1% after 2.2% growth in 2012. That would continue
the same tepid growth the country has seen since the Great Recession
ended in mid-2009.
*Respected analyst
saying Bank earnings could hit a record $38 billion in the fourth
quarter, while the industry is poised to have a solid 2013. Dick Bove also
saying "There's a good chance the fourth quarter of this year will be
the highest earnings period ever in the history of the American banking
industry." When you take a look at the $38 billion relative to the $25
billion earned in the fourth quarter last year, it'll be a 50 percent
increase. Might be time to look at Citi, Bank of America, Goldman,
JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, etc...
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East Central
Michigan - We
have traditionally been a small dairy operation, with row crops as corn,
beans, and wheat. We also produce a large amount of hay for feed use but
with the drought hurting much of the hay crop in these parts, we have sold
quite a bit this year. We have many dairy's in the area and the hay has
gotten as high as I have ever seen it. The highest I had ever seen it was
in 2008, when wet bales were going for up to $100 per bale. This year I
have been selling pretty wet bales as high as $140 per bushel. One thing I
did this past year, that I hadn't done before was 2nd crop beans after our
wheat. They ended up making 22 bpa. I planted them around July 15 and
harvested them on Thanksgiving afternoon. I didn't think I was going to be
able to get them out but had some sunny, windy weather that dried things
out just enough to get in the field. The beans struggled all year, with
spider mites being really bad when it was hot and dry. I am changing up my
rotation and eliminating beans and wheat and just planting corn and hay. We
are extremely dry here right now. We are within the area for the lake
effect but there is no snow on the ground and none to speak of that is in
the forecast. Hopefully, some storms will blow in, if not, we will be in
worse drought conditions then we saw this past year.
Northern Minnesota - I am what I consider a smaller
farmer up here, but I own most of my ground. There are a few guys up this
north that have been going more corn as of the last few years with the
shorter growing seasons available. I still stick with mostly soybean and
spring wheat, it's what seems to work around here. When planting a new crop
you have to figure you have ten days to harvest it on a normal year. This
year we had a solid 60 days to harvest which we have never seen. I don't
plan on changing any rotations or trying a new crop this next year, I just
feel like when guys step outside of what they know best they will get
burned the worse. One pretty interesting thing we have seen around here is
the rented ground has double in some areas. We have seen $85/acre ground
jump as high as $170 which means next year prices will need to be above $8
and yield will have to be above 55 bushels per acre on spring wheat, which
is not unheard of but makes farming a little more difficult. Thank you for
your daily newsletter.
Southwest Alabama - Wanted to throw out a
moisture update for you from down south. It rained all day Monday, it
started about 4am on the 17t. I guess we’ve got around 3 to 3.5 inches, the
creeks running now first time since March. Plenty under the circumstances!
I feel like winter is finally here. Usually sets in around Thanksgiving, so
we have gotten an extra few weeks off of the beginning of winter. I am now
starting to wonder if it might make it up on the end of winter. Got my
Christmas present early!!!!!!!!!!! Our topsoil before this was better than
last year at this time before this rain so this will be a good start on
recharging profile. A long ways to go yet but this truly gives you hope
after the drought. I'll take whatever I can get!
Southeast Nebraska - Still taken up more acres
and farming is looking good. I farm 112 pivots in my corner of the state
and fuel was starting to get to me. To give you an idea of what it’s like
to feed that many pivots, I can tell you that from the time I drink my
coffee one morning to the next it cost me about $35,000 dollars in fuel. I
just bought 160 acres last Wednesday for $13,300\acre, and another 160 out
by Aurora for about the same money. I can't seem to get enough. I farmed
huge when no one else did. Back in the day Deere sent people out to study
the 24 row planters I built. I’m approaching 30k plus acres and its 100%
irrigated except the corners. The key I have found to growth is to buy a
lot of ground, not just rent it all, and have your marketing down pat on a
strict business plan. I have since invested in part of Whiskey Creek
steakhouses, as a side venture. It’s fun I just don’t know how profitable
it is. Have a happy holiday!
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- Talk in Brazil is that
soybeans could start being harvested by mid-January, just three to
four weeks away.
- According to the National
Weather Service, this is the third warmest December start in Chicago
since 1871.
- Corn inspections now down
almost 52% from last year; Wheat inspections down by about 13%
compared to last year; Soybean inspection ahead of last year by about
40%.
- Hearing that China booked
another 1 million metric tons of US soybeans on top of what was
announced Friday. Chinese crush margins continue to be positive and
higher prices are coming as soymeal supplies are tight.
- Private exporters report
sales of 151,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations.
India is thought to be tendering for 100,000 metric tons of wheat
exports.
- Remember, the January
soybean options expire Friday with biggest open interest at $15.
- Hearing talk that blasting
of rock pinnacles on the Mississippi River to start sometime this
week, along with increased dredging activity.
- Rosario Grain Exchange cuts
Argentine corn crop to 24 million metric tons. This is a substantial
cut from the USDA’s estimate at 27.5 million metric tons. Wheat is cut
to 9.5 million metric tons vs. the USDA’s estimate at 11.5 million
metric tons. More confirmation that wet weather is beginning to take
its toll.
- Argentine corn seed is only
70% complete as compared to 82% last year. Soybean seeding is 73%
complete nearly on par with the 77% level this time last year.
- Celeres is confirming that
Brazil will increase the amount of land planted with genetically
modified soybeans, corn and cotton by 14% this season from a year ago
as it shoulders a growing share of the world’s agricultural output.
Nearly 89% of Brazil’s soybean crop, which is likely to be the largest
in the world when it is harvested early next year.
- Production estimates for
Brazil soybeans continue to positive as AgRural has now raised their
estimate to 82.2 million metric tons from 81.9 million in November.
- Ukraine’s wheat stocks fell
to 6.5 million metric tons as of December 1st from 8.2 million a month
earlier according to data from state statistics. This is said to be
just enough to cover domestic needs for the rest of the season as the
government urged traders to halt exports. To be clear, this is just
short of officially banning exports. Interestingly enough, Indonesia
bought an unknown volume of Ukraine wheat for spot shipment over the
weekend.
- Analysts at SovEcon pegs
Russian wheat exports at 13.3 million metric tons. USDA has them at 10
million metric tons. This would leave them only 1 million metric tons
left.
- Hearing that Speaker of the
House, John Boehner has moved closer by offering tax hike on $1
million and above income earners. He also says he would allow a 1 year
only debt ceiling hike.
- I continue to hear warnings
that credit rating agencies really care about how the debt ceiling
situation is handled and could down grade if the issue isn’t resolved
quickly. The agencies have also made it known that want to see a plan
for the federal debt as well.
- Interesting to see new
estimates from Continental Resources that show a possible 903 billion
barrels of original oil in place in the Bakken oil fields in North
Dakota. That’s an increased estimate of nearly 57% from what they
thought back in 2010.
- Europe will have to
"work very hard" to maintain the most generous welfare
system in the world and remain globally competitive, said Angela
Merkel, the German chancellor.
- U.S. banks are making a
last-minute push to ease new global liquidity requirements, arguing
that they would need to come up with an additional $800 billion.
- The British treasury stands
to raise as much as 1 billion pounds ($1.61 billion) by selling
Ministry of Defence airwaves currently reserved for military purposes.
- Japan's Liberal Democratic
party has crushed the ruling Democrats in an election landslide.
- Chobani, the yogurt company
that grew from nothing five years ago to a roughly $1 billion
powerhouse today, on Monday will formally open one of the world's
largest yogurt-processing plants in Twin Falls, Idaho.
|
GMO Technology to
Help Create Gluten-Free Wheat???
I saw some an interesting question being posed: Can scientists create
gluten-free wheat plants to make bread with? It’s interesting as you know
because the “gluten-free” diet has really become an everyday-mainstream
topic as of late. It’s also a compelling story because it is dealing with
biotechnology and the manipulation of seed traits. For those of you scoring
at home, “biotechnology” is basically another way of saying “genetically
modified organism.” The  necessity
to create a gluten-free wheat is in response to the serious gluten
allergies such as "celiac’s disease" that seem to be more
prevalent as of late. If you know anybody with it, you know it can be a
very serious allergy that can cause abdominal pain, nutritional
deficiencies and a progressive flattening of the tiny hairlike villi in the
stomach that are needed for proper digestion of food. Gluten is a very
complicated mix of proteins that are stored in seeds of wheat, barley and
rye, and some -- not all of them -- are believed to trigger the allergic
reactions. Right now, the only really good way of conquering these
allergies is to swear off all foods containing wheat, barley and rye.
Obviously, that is not an easy task for anyone. From what I understand,
scientists at Washington State University in Pullman (whose research is
documented in the journal PNAS) have begun experimenting with sifting
through different varieties of wheat and barley lines that lack, or make a
lot less of, key gluten proteins in their grains. From here they hone in on
a key enzyme which helps activate a complete set of genes that make the
most problematic gluten proteins. Using a genetic engineering trick, they
knocked out that enzyme. As a result, the seeds of the wheat they studied
had sharply reduced levels of this set of problem proteins. The scientists
believe it will take more experimenting before they can create a line that
fully eliminates the problem proteins entirely. However, they seem to think
they have a good chance of doing it while still keeping its capacity for
baking bread. You have to believe this is good news, not only for people
dealing with celiac’s disease, but also to most farmers and GMO supporters.
If scientists can start finding new ways that biotechnology can help people
out beyond increasing yields, you can bet the general public will be more
apt to get on board and support it. Let’s hope their work comes to fruition
and we can see some real differences made from biotechnology and
genetically modified crops.
If Doomsday
Followers Are Correct...Friday Will Be Our Last Day of Trading???
We are moving closer and closer to December 21st (this Friday), the end of
the Mayan calendar, and the supposed end of the world as we know it.
Millions of individuals from California to China are getting ready for what
they are thinking is going to be a really bad day. As you know, December
21st marks the end of the 5,125 year cycle known to the Maya as the “Long
Count.” We talked about this a few months back, but the 2009 disaster movie
“2012” helped to spark doomsday rumors as the flick showed Los Angeles
crashing into the sea and mammoth tsunami waves swallowing the Himalayas.
Since then, writers, bloggers and New Age visionaries have come out of the
woodwork giving alarming predictions in an attempt to stoke the panic. From
what I understand, governments and scientists are trying to get a head of
any possible tragedy. Even NASA intervened earlier this month, running a
YouTube video debunking apocalyptic points, one by one. You can see one of
those videos HERE. Some of the most interesting rumors that people
are concerned about are as follows:
- Some believe a rogue planet
called "Nibiru" will emerge from its hiding place behind the
sun and smash into the Earth. The story started with claims that
Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed
toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003,
but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to
December 2012 and linked to the end of one of the cycles in the
ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the
predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.
- A Super Black Hole at the
center of the universe will suck in our planet and smash it to pieces.
One theory suggests a galactic alignment which would create chaos on
Earth because of the gravitational effect between the Sun and the
Black hole called Sagittarius A, which is located at the center of our
galaxy.
- Another theory involves a
'polar shift', which means a reversal of the north and south magnetic
poles.
- In France, there’s a
mountain where people are converging to await the arrival of aliens.
- At least two men in China are
predicting a world-ending flood. They are both building arks. The
reports I saw show a gentleman named Lu Zhenghai who spent his life
savings, some $160,000, building the 70 foot by 50 foot vessel powered
by three diesel engines (pictured below). The most innovative ark
builder, however, is Yang Zongfu, a 32 year old businessman in eastern
China. His vessel, Atlantic, a three ton yellow steel ball 13 feet in
diameter, is designed to survive a volcano, tsunami, earthquake or
nuclear meltdown (pictured below).
- The Chinese seemed to be
the most concerned with an estimated 1 out of every 5 taking
precautions of some sort. From what I have heard there have already
been more than 100 million posts on Weibo, China’s version of Twitter,
about Friday's scheduled end of the World.
I should point out not
everybody sees a doomsday scenario. Some folks are actually joining a
global counter movement promoting the date as the start of a new era of
hope. I have heard one of the biggest movements is called "Birth
2012" which they believe the Mayan date will launch a global spiritual
reset. Interestingly enough, in Mexico, the heartland of Mayan country,
nobody is preparing for the end of the world, instead they are banking big
bucks off a tidal wave of visitors who have been flocking to ancient sites
across Mexico of Mayan day of doom. Before you go out and spend your life
savings building an arc, just keep in mind many anthropologists as well as
historians aren’t even sure whether the end of the Mayan calendar falls on
December 21st, or whether it’s already happened or is still to come. Also
understand that there have been many end-of-world predictions over the
course of history sourced from both religious and non-religious beliefs.
Just as recently as last year, American Christian radio host Harold Camping
predicted the rapture occurring on May 21, 2011, and again on October 21,
2011.... Guess what? We are still here!
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|
 
|
 
 1918 -
The Battle of Verdun was fought on this day one of the major battles during
the First World War on the Western Front. It resulted in 714,321
casualties, 377,231 on the French side and 337,000 on the German one, an
average of 70,000 casualties for each of the ten months of the battle. It
was the longest and one of the most devastating battles in the First World
War and the history of warfare. Modern estimates increase the number of
casualties to 976,000.The concentration of so much fighting in such a small
area devastated the land, resulting in miserable conditions for troops on
both sides. Rain combined with the constant tearing up of the ground turned
the clay of the area to a wasteland of mud clogged with corpses and body
parts. In some areas, the ground was composed more of human flesh and bone
than of earth or vegetation. Shell craters became filled with a liquid
ooze, becoming so slippery that troops who fell into them or took cover in
them could drown. Forests were reduced to tangled piles of wood by constant
artillery shelling, and eventually they were completely obliterated. The
effect on soldiers in the battle was devastating. Many troops at the battle
never actually saw the enemy, experiencing nothing but artillery shells.
One French lieutenant at Verdun who was later killed by an artillery shell
wrote in his diary on 23 May 1916 "Humanity is mad. It must be mad to
do what it is doing. What a massacre! What scenes of horror and carnage! I
cannot find words to translate my impressions. Hell cannot be so terrible.
Men are mad!"
 1932 - The Chicago Bears and the
Portsmouth Spartans tied with the best regular-season winning percentages
(although the Green Bay Packers had four more wins). To determine the
champion, the league voted to hold the first official playoff game in
Chicago at Wrigley Field. Because of severe winter conditions before the
game, and fear of low turnout, the game was held indoors at Chicago Stadium
which forced some temporary rule changes. The game was played on a modified
80-yard dirt field, and Chicago won 9–0, winning the league championship. A
number of new rule changes were instituted, many inspired by the 1932
indoor championship game: the goal posts were moved forward to the goal
line, every play started from between the hash marks, and forward passes
could originate from anywhere behind the line of scrimmage (instead of five
yards behind). The playoff game proved so popular that the league
reorganized into two divisions for the 1933 season, with the winners
advancing to a scheduled championship game.
 1996 -
(Oakland Unified School District) called on "Ebonics" to be
recognized as a language of African Americans. The proposal was to
implement a program. Ebonics (a blend of the words ebony and phonics) is a
term that was originally intended to refer to the language of all people
descended from enslaved Black Africans, particularly in West Africa, the
Caribbean, and North America. The term Ebonics has primarily been used to
refer to African American Vernacular English (AAVE), a dialect
distinctively different from Standard American English. National attitudes
towards African American Vernacular English were revisited when a
controversial resolution from the Oakland (California) school board the
wording states African American language systems "have origins in West
[sic] and Niger–Congo languages and are not merely dialects of English. . .
." In reality, the belief underlying the Oakland proposal was that
black students would perform better in school and more easily learn
standard American English if textbooks and teachers incorporated AAVE in
teaching black children to speak Standard English rather than mistakenly
equating nonstandard with substandard and dismissing AAVE as the latter.
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Fri. 12/21 - Cattle On Feed Report
Mon. 12/24 - Early CBOT & KBOT
Tues. 12/25 - Markets are closed for trade
Fri. 12/28 - Quarterly Hogs & Pig Report
Tues. 1/1 2013 - New Years Observed, markets
closed Wednesday Jan 2, 2013. Markets open 9:30 am central.
Fri. 1/11 - USDA Grain Stocks and Final
Production Report
|
CORN MAR 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - BULLISH
•
Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $9.47
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $8.45
• Short-Term Resistane Level #1 @ $7.76
• Previous Close $7.24
•
Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $7.14
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $6.75
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $5.51
SOYBEANS JAN 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - NEUTRAL
•
Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $17.95
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $16.45
• Short-Term Resistane Level #1 @ $15.09
• Previous Close $14.96^2
•
Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $13.72
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $12.49
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $10.94
WHEAT MAR 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - NEUTRAL
•
Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $11.55
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $10.15
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $9.50
•
Previous Close $8.08
•
Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $7.74
• Intermediate SupportLevel#2 @ $6.69
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $5.65
CATTLE FEB 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - NEUTRAL
•
Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $139.90
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $135.55
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $133.60
• Previous Close $133.500
•
Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $128.15
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $125.30
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $123.70
HOGS FEB 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - BULLISH
•
Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $97.475
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $94.425
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $88.50
• Previous Close $84.750
•
Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $82.55
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $79.05
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $76.85
CRUDE
OIL
FEB 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - BEARISH
•
Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $100.50
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $94.10
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $90.35
• Previous Close $87.67
•
Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $84.50
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $77.30
• Intermediate Support Level #3 @ $67.10
S&P
500
MAR 2012 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - BULLISH
•
Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $1,625.50
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $1,527.00
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $1,468.20
• Previous Close $1,427.75
•
Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $1,340.00
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $1,262.50
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $1,068.00
US
DOLLAR
MAR 2013 CONTRACT
TECHNICAL
LEVELS - NEUTRAL
•
Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $86.80
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $86.60
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $84.30
• Previous Close $79.620
•
Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $78.05
• IntermediateSupport Level #2 @ $75.10
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $72.80
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“I am a recent
subscriber to Kevin’s newsletter, but I’m a long-time reader of many other
high-profile marketing services. I am particularly impressed with the
thorough manner in which Kevin evaluates every economic aspect, both
nationally and internationally, that influences commodity prices. His analysis
and conclusions are highly thought out and conveyed in layman’s terms so
that the reader can comprehend the numerous and often complex
interrelationships that impact the markets. Kevin is a real attribute to
the agricultural sector.”
A.M., FDIC
“As a national
federal farm policy administrator and commodity producer, I find it
critical to keep updated with what is going on in the real world of
agriculture and with the domestic and global markets. Of all the services
I’ve have been privy to or have subscribed to over the past 20 years I’ve
found in the past several months of engaging in your “Farm Direction”
services to be the best perception and analysis of what is really happening
in today’s world. Not only here in the United States, but across the globe
as well. US farmers need this type of help and information to assist them
in their daily efforts. I commend you for a job well done. Please let me
know if I can ever be of any help or assistance to you in the future…”
L.T., Assistant Deputy Administrator for Farm
Programs USDA
More Testimonials
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"Not To Trade,
is often considered a good trading decision..."
"First Rule of
HOLES: When you are in one stop digging..."
"Every loser
in Vegas, always walks away from the table thinking he could have done
better, the winners on the other hand leave while on top..."
"Bulls make
money, Bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered..."
"The markets
ability to remain irrational can often times last much longer than your
ability to remain solvent..."
I'm more of a
long-term player, therefore you will not see me give many short-term
suggestions or trade ideas. One of my most important rules is that I always
follow my long-term direction. Therefore, as long as I am
"bullish" a market I will only play that particular market in one
of three ways.
- Option #1 - Conservatively
long.
- Option #2 - Aggressively
long.
- Option #3 - Sitting on the
sideline.
I never initiate a
"short" position in a market that I am "bullish"
longer-term, nor do I initiate a "long" position in a market I am
"bearish" longer-term.
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