Open Grain Market Comments 4-18-11 Strong Markets Despite Weak Outside Markets

Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a mixed to supportive overnight session and weak outside markets.

In the overnight session wheat was strong with KC wheat up 14 cents, MPLS wheat was up 13-16, CBOT wheat was up 12, beans where unchanged, old crop corn continued to lose ground to new crop corn as old crop corn was down 3 and new crop corn was up 5 cents.  At 8:45 outside markets have the equities getting smashed with the DOW off 180 points, crude oil is off about 1.85 a barrel, and the US dollar is bouncing with the June up 357 at 75.385.

Today good be lining up to be another volatile session as outside markets at 9:20 have broken even harder with crude down about 2.80 and the equities now have the DOW down 220 plus points, with the dollar stronger also.  Mention of Greek default has outside markets under severe pressure; based on how where the outside markets where at when the grains closed we could see the markets open a little weaker then where the overnights left off at and if they can show some strength after that it would be a great sign for our grains.

I didn’t get these comments out before the market opened up; but it did end up opening a little weaker then the overnight session left off at. The good thing is it quickly threw aside the weaker open and now a little after 10 we have all the grains rather strong.  Wheat is up 30ish, beans about a dime, and corn still has old crop lagging the new crop with old crop up a nickel and new crop corn up 7-8 cents.  The one thing that is scary is the price action of the US Dollar with the June up 882 at 75.910.

I do wonder where the grains would be at if we would have the opposite price action in the outside markets; if we would have crude up 2-3 a barrel, the US dollar sharply lower, and the DOW up a couple hundred points instead of down a couple hundred points. 

Along those same lines with the weak outside markets how strong of a rally is today’s rally.  The price action today lines up much better then the price action last week did based on the ugly weather that isn’t allowing much spring wheat to get planted nor is it adding to the size of the HRW crop.

This afternoon we do have crop progress and crop conditions out; market is looking for not much planted and no improvement in the HRW crop. 

Basis was firmer going home last week; with a nice bounce in the board it will be interesting to see if HRW basis can continue to show some strength. 

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.