Markets ended the week with some strength; the markets movement this week reminds me of trading spring wheat in 2008; fun at times; but sickening at times . It might not be quiet as extreme but it feels like it has many more unanswered questions then it did back then. Questions like when will demand curve, will we run out of corn, and will we some how get enough supply to meet what appears to be very strong demand. I guess only time will tell.
I personally think that
our biggest risk becomes getting too high priced as when things get out of balance they usually shift fastly and seem to go from one extreme to the other. Much like the price action we seen this week; wether it was early Monday night when corn made new highs; or Tues night/Wed A.M. when all grains where any where from a 50 cents to 1.00 or so off of those highs made just 24-36 hours earlier.
Probably the only reason it didn't bunch of talk was the fact that those lows happened early in the morning while we where sleeping and we where fortunate enough to turn around and not close our markets under pressure.
I look for this volitality to continue and even though I find my self in the camp that fundamentally our commodity king (Corn) appears to have fundamentals that say go higher until demand decreases or supply increases one should realize that at any time we could string a week or more of sessions similiar to Monday Night-Tuesday in which we saw corn 40 plus off of it's highs and other grains had even bigger ranges.
Keep risk management and price outlook in perspective as things always look the best at the top.
As for some charts see below.
I personally think that
our biggest risk becomes getting too high priced as when things get out of balance they usually shift fastly and seem to go from one extreme to the other. Much like the price action we seen this week; wether it was early Monday night when corn made new highs; or Tues night/Wed A.M. when all grains where any where from a 50 cents to 1.00 or so off of those highs made just 24-36 hours earlier.
Probably the only reason it didn't bunch of talk was the fact that those lows happened early in the morning while we where sleeping and we where fortunate enough to turn around and not close our markets under pressure.
I look for this volitality to continue and even though I find my self in the camp that fundamentally our commodity king (Corn) appears to have fundamentals that say go higher until demand decreases or supply increases one should realize that at any time we could string a week or more of sessions similiar to Monday Night-Tuesday in which we saw corn 40 plus off of it's highs and other grains had even bigger ranges.
Keep risk management and price outlook in perspective as things always look the best at the top.
As for some charts see below.
Look for a neutral Nick update soon with these up and down commodities.
No comments:
Post a Comment