Markets are called firmer this a.m. behind supportive outside markets and good export sales.
In the overnight session corn was up 5-7 cents, beans where up 3, KC wheat was up 6-8 cents, MPLS wheat was up 5, and CBOT wheat was up 8-10 cents. At 8:50 outside markets have European wheat firm up about 3 %, the DOW is up 40 points as the equities are slightly firmer, crude oil is down about 30 cents a barrel, and the US dollar is firmer with the March up 289 at 77.390.
It appears that the roller coaster ride for the grains wants to continue; this a.m. the ride just isn’t quite as exciting as it has been the past week or so as most of the grains couldn’t manage even a 10 cent trading range in the overnight session. So it appears for this second that we could have a little quieter market then we have had the last week or so. Having said that we do have a USDA Outlook Forum going on now and obvisioully plenty of outside influeces have been around lately and likely continue to effect our markets; but right now it appears we won’t see the dollar plus range we did for some of the grains Monday night threw Tuesday a.m.
The good thing I see out there with the volatile markets we seen to start the week is the fact that the trading range we had should help set up well defined support and resistance. Overall it was great to see the grains bounce well off of their lows; that fact and this a.m.‘s export sales show that someone has interest in buying or selling has started to slow down. The fact that fund liquidation appears to be slowing was one fact my broker mentioned this a.m.
In regards to export sales we seen corn put in a great number; the best of the year and when we put in the best consumptive demand numbers at the time of the highest prices it shows overall fundamental strength in my opinon. Corn sales came in at 59.1 million bushels which is more then 2 times what we need on a per week basis. Wheat came in at 37.1 which is towards the top end we have seen since late August; or nearly 3 ½ times what is needed on a per week basis to meet current USDA projections. Beans where on the light side as they only came in at 4.9 million bushels and failed to hit what we need on a per week basis to meet current USDA projections.
Spring wheat basis is on fire on the spot floor; mainly logistics but it does feel like there is also good business behind it. Yesterday we sold some deferred slots that traded much higher then they do historically that far ahead of time for that slot; part of that is do to the upfront strength but it also says to me that the overall world lacks great quality on wheat and our demand is continuing to improve.
As for the volatility don’t look for it to go away for any extended period of time as we have too many unknowns and the outlook forum shows the overall tightness expected with good demand for years to come.
Don’t forget about our marketing meeting that is March 7th in Ft Pierre and March 8th in Philip.
