Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Opening Grain Market Comments

Markets are called weaker this a.m. behind a slightly weaker overnight session and weak outside markets.

In the overnight session corn was down 1-2 cents, soybeans were down a penny to up a penny, KC wheat was off 4 cents, MPLS wheat was down 3, and CBOT wheat was down 3-5 cents.  Outside markets have a firmer US Dollar, Gold is back to about unchanged, crude is down nearly a buck, and equity futures are pointing to a lower start with the DOW futures off 80 points.

Outside market risk off hits the headline this a.m.; hopefully things don’t get carried away once the markets open again.

Oil World did have some highlights out this a.m.  First off they decreased the Chinese soybean imports which isn’t the best demand sign.  On the plus side they have the overall South American soybean crop 5 mmt less than the present USDA forecast and that more than offsets the decrease in the Chinese demand.

Looks like the present weather system could cause more planting delays with much of the heart of the corn belt suppose to get lots of moisture many areas 2-3 inches.  Some cool weather is also forecasted in the next few days for parts of HRW area; but the area seems to be more in the area were we have a bad crop already.  It doesn’t get quiet as cool in the areas that look to have a decent crop.

Corn basis feels better, but most local ethanol plants are plugged and covered for the next couple months.  Also many bids have rolled to the July.

US corn export potential looks bad right now for old crop; with heavy reported Argentine corn sales being reported.

The Chinese bird flu developments are also on some headlines this a.m.  Sounds like a 4 year old boy has been diagnosed as a carrier even though he had no symptoms of the flu and there is unconfirmed talk of human to human transmission.

We will have ethanol numbers out this a.m. and the market might pay attention to those as the last USDA report increased ethanol usage the market might be looking for some confirmation of that.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

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