Thursday, April 18, 2013

Opening Grain Market Comments - Super Strong Export sales

Markets are better this a.m. behind a choppy overnight session that ended firmer and decent export sales.

Overnight session had corn unchanged when it closed at 7:45, soybeans were up 12, KC wheat was up 4, MPLS wheat was up 5, and CBOT wheat was up 5.   Outside markets have a weaker US dollar, equity futures up slightly with the DOW pointed towards at up 20-40 start, crude is up 60 cents, and gold is up 4 bucks.

Exports sales were very strong this a.m. and that should give us some demand support.  Just keep in mind that actual trades reported in export sales are trades that already happened; so the weekly sales are general old news; but also headline news and sometimes we need headlines to help money flow want to come into our markets.

Old crop wheat sales were 20.3 million bushels; which is about 2 times what we need to hit USDA goal; just keep in mind that we won’t be able to have absolutely everything we sell shipped at the same time so we will want to see the sales over the projection.  New crop sales were super strong for wheat; but this isn’t new news either as much of this is from the Chinese business reported.  But either way new crop wheat sales were 41.2 million bushels which puts our commitments for next year over two times what they were a year ago for this present year.

Old crop corn sales were good at 15.8; which is about 4 million bushels more then we need on a per week basis.  New crop corn was non-existent; but new crop corn is also slightly ahead of where it was a year ago.

Old crop soybean sales were 12.5 million bushels which is about 3 times what we need on a per week basis to hit current USDA projections.  New crop bean sales were 8.4 million; our new crop sales are running behind where they where a year ago.

Soybean meal sales came in at 52 times what is needed on a per week basis.

Other news this a.m. is weather; same story as yesterday too much rain and cold weather in areas to allow planting.  Talk of acres getting shifted or even lost to prevent planting is the headline.  Just keep in mind this is old news and what will be important will be the forecasts as they come out.  Also in weather talk is cold weather for tonight and tomorrow in some HRW areas; but once again mainly the western areas not the east areas were the better crops are located at.

Yesterday we did have ethanol numbers out and they showed a decrease from the previous week but still at a pace above the latest USDA estimate.

Flooding talks are out there for both the Red River Valley as well as the Mississippi river the ND flooding can impact acres and the Mississippi flooding can impact the delivery systems and thus basis.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

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