Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Forward of Van Trump Report - Speaking in Pierre on Thursday Dec 20th

Below is a forward  from one of our speakers (Kevin Van Trump) for our meetings this week.

Grain Marketing Seminar 2012

We would like to invite you to our
free grain marketing seminars:

Dec. 19th, 2012 – 1:00 pm MST at the
Ambulance Building in Philip, Tregg Cronin Speaker

Dec. 20, 2012 – 10:00 am CST at the Ramkota in
Pierre, Kevin Van Trump and Tregg Cronin will be speaking on the grain markets.  Lunch will be served

Please RSVP for either location by calling
800-658-3670 or 605-258-2686

Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)

This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.

From: Kevin Van Trump [mailto:info@farmdirection.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2012 6:39 AM
To: CO-Pierre, Jeremey Frost
Subject: GOOD MORNING: 12/18/12 Farm Direction - VanTrump Report

The Van Trump Report
Printable Copy
Morning Summary: Investors in the US stock market should be happy as the S&P 500 is showing a 14% return on the year, while the NASDAQ up 16% on the year. Many readers, especially the "doom and gloom" crowd, questioned my call last year when I said the US equity markets were going to be very strong performers. I should also point out that for the first time in 2012 - all 50 US states have gas prices below $4.00 per gallon. Hawaii has the nation’s highest price at $3.98, while Missouri is the lowest at $2.96 per gallon. Talks out of Washington are that we might be getting closer to a compromise as Obama is now proposing tax increases on those earning more than $400K, rather than $250K, while Boehner is offering to go ahead and let taxes rise on wealthy Americans' "investment income."  The "outside" macro markets  are trading in our favor this morning, but end-of-year adjustments may trump traditional type trade action. This is the main reason I suggested staying close to the shore and limiting your trade activity. Remember, some of the most seasoned and best traders in the business often have a tough time navigating in the pre-holiday waters. As a rule of thumb, when you see the locals moving closer to the shore and in many cases completely out of the water you should think twice before diving in head first.  
Money-flow continues to be one of my biggest concerns for the Ag markets moving forward. Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks the flow of money invested in commodity funds, released data showing money moving into commodities had increased by $21.6 billion this year, essentially up more than 90% from the already significant gains in 2011. My question is will money continue to pour in or have we reached a short-term peak? Citi Bank analyst seem to be thinking  the bull run in commodities is over, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley think there is still more room to the upside. A Bloomberg poll of more than 130 traders that recently came across my desk showed they suspect precious metals could lead the commodity markets in 2013 with returns as high as 25%. They were also thinking the grains could advance by 18%, and industrial metals by some 16%. I would like to say I am in agreement, but I continue to contend it feels like big-money is looking more for a way OUT, rather than a way to allocate more funding into Ag commodities right now. The CFTC just recently reported, that as a group, hedge funds had reduced their bullish bets on commodities by about 35% since September. I will continue to monitor this closely as we move forward.   
Soybean bulls are concerned about the first drop in export inspections below 40 million in several weeks. Bears are thinking China has throttled back demand to some degree as the year-end approaches. There is also talk that Mississippi River restrictions are slowing bushels to the Gulf. The bulls however remain hopeful that China will continue booking a larger than normal number of US beans on fears that South American logistical issues could cause some major delays in soybean deliveries during the 1st and 2nd Quarter of 2013. From my perspective we continue to see strong demand, as the USDA announces new sales almost every morning. Will US supplies be extremely tight in early 2013? There is no question, absolutely! The concern I have is will the funds be willing to play this short-window of opportunity, and if they do elect to play the game, will it prompt a traditional rally in the flat-price or will the opportunities be more spread related? My fear is that the funds may be apprehensive to dive head first into the soy market with such a massive South American crop projected right around the next corner, making the trade extremely difficult to navigate. Keep in mind most analyst continue to estimate the Brazilian soybean crop will come in between 79 and 83MMT's, about 25% larger than last year. I am also hearing talks that beans in certain areas of Brazil are going to start being harvested in the next three or four weeks...here we go! This ride could get wild. 
Demand continues to be a major concern for both the corn and wheat markets. Most analysts are now thinking US wheat exports are off by about 75 million bushels and corn exports are off by about 250 million bushels. The corn market is failing to excite new interest and therefore money-flow seems to becoming bored with the story, at least until the trade learns more about the size of the US corn crop and what type of reduction in "harvested acres" will be made. If your looking to play the bullish side of the corn market I would suggest the bulls spreads rather than outright flat price positions. There could be some strength down the road in the long MAR13 vs short JUL13 spread or the long MAR13 vs short MAY13 spread, especially if supplies of quality corn end up as tight as some are predicting. We are not currently in these spreads but they are on our radar screen, and I am getting closer to pulling the trigger.  
Technically traders are fearful a close in DEC13 corn below last weeks low of $6.18 could open up the door to testing the $5.95 to $6.00 level. Traders will also be watching the MAR13 contract for a break below the $7.14 area as confirmation of more weakness. New crop soybeans (NOV13 contract) seem to be struggling to break through the $13.35 to $13.40 level. Producers looking to make a few more new crop bean sales might want to consider pulling the trigger if we make it back up to that area. Wheat, yesterday, technically closed below the 200-day moving average. 
Weather, from my perspective, remains neutral to bearish. There is some additional talk of an El Nino type patterns starting to develop. I know this bearish rhetoric isn't what producers in the dry US growing regions want to hear, but with conditions in Brazil almost ideal, no real problems to report in China, and forecasters calling for more moisture across most of the Central US it's hard to get real bullish. Keep in mind there is talk of significant snowfall out west and maybe a foot or more hitting the ground up in Iowa and Wisconsin. There is also some good snowfall being forecast for areas of Kansas and Nebraska during the Christmas holiday. Some forecasters are thinking the moisture could end up missing the lower Plains and the Delta regions keeping it warm and dry. Net-net there is just not much of a weather story to pull money that has been on the sideline back to the bullish side of the game.
Water levels along the Mississippi continue to remain a major concern. Most sources had been reporting water levels at St. Louis to be just under -3.5ft with thoughts of the water level could drop to -5.0 before the end of December, possibly closing down the river. From what I heard yesterday though from the Army Corps of Engineers, it sounds like the Mississippi River is going to be able to stay open all winter. The talk is the Corps has ramped up their dredging efforts and have started blasting away at underwater rock formations. They have also started releasing more water into the river from Carlyle Lake in southern Illinois. It is estimated this will raise the river by six inches at Thebes, Illinois, by around Christmas time. Though ultimately all of these moves should help keep the river open, you should understand it could make current transportation more difficult and limited as the crews try and navigate around the Corps efforts. This could ultimately start pushing freight charges higher and for some producers cause the basis to slip a bit. 
Wheat prices continue to fall under pressure and there is now talk US wheat is by far the cheapest on the market. I suspect with prices under pressure Egypt or possibly even Brazil might step in and grab a few US bushels. If this takes place look for the US wheat market to make a little rebound from the low-end of its current trading range. Those who are short might want to temporarily move to the sideline. Keep in mind however that SovEcon is now estimating Russian wheat exports at 13.3MMT's. This compares to the USDA thinking Russia would export somewhere around 10MMT's. Point is if Russian exports are that much higher, US exports could eventually pushed a little lower. One good thing to point out is the fact Ukraine's wheat stocks as of Dec 1st had fell to 6.5 million tons down significantly from the 8.2 million reported the previous month. With total stock now dangerously close to the supply needed to cover domestic demand, the Ukraine government may have no choice but to halt exports. Keep in mind the trade has been looking for this to happen the past several weeks so I doubt there will be any major excitement when it is made official.
*Don't forget January options go off the board on Friday. Those who have in-the-money positions may want to make some pre-holiday adjustments prior to Fridays option expiration.
*The National Association for Business Economics says it is looking for the economy to grow in 2013 by 2.1% after 2.2% growth in 2012. That would continue the same tepid growth the country has seen since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009.
*Respected analyst saying Bank earnings could hit a record $38 billion in the fourth quarter, while the industry is poised to have a solid 2013. Dick Bove also saying "There's a good chance the fourth quarter of this year will be the highest earnings period ever in the history of the American banking industry." When you take a look at the $38 billion relative to the $25 billion earned in the fourth quarter last year, it'll be a 50 percent increase. Might be time to look at Citi, Bank of America, Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, etc...
From The Field
East Central Michigan - We have traditionally been a small dairy operation, with row crops as corn, beans, and wheat. We also produce a large amount of hay for feed use but with the drought hurting much of the hay crop in these parts, we have sold quite a bit this year. We have many dairy's in the area and the hay has gotten as high as I have ever seen it. The highest I had ever seen it was in 2008, when wet bales were going for up to $100 per bale. This year I have been selling pretty wet bales as high as $140 per bushel. One thing I did this past year, that I hadn't done before was 2nd crop beans after our wheat. They ended up making 22 bpa. I planted them around July 15 and harvested them on Thanksgiving afternoon. I didn't think I was going to be able to get them out but had some sunny, windy weather that dried things out just enough to get in the field. The beans struggled all year, with spider mites being really bad when it was hot and dry. I am changing up my rotation and eliminating beans and wheat and just planting corn and hay. We are extremely dry here right now. We are within the area for the lake effect but there is no snow on the ground and none to speak of that is in the forecast. Hopefully, some storms will blow in, if not, we will be in worse drought conditions then we saw this past year.
Northern Minnesota - I am what I consider a smaller farmer up here, but I own most of my ground. There are a few guys up this north that have been going more corn as of the last few years with the shorter growing seasons available. I still stick with mostly soybean and spring wheat, it's what seems to work around here. When planting a new crop you have to figure you have ten days to harvest it on a normal year. This year we had a solid 60 days to harvest which we have never seen. I don't plan on changing any rotations or trying a new crop this next year, I just feel like when guys step outside of what they know best they will get burned the worse. One pretty interesting thing we have seen around here is the rented ground has double in some areas. We have seen $85/acre ground jump as high as $170 which means next year prices will need to be above $8 and yield will have to be above 55 bushels per acre on spring wheat, which is not unheard of but makes farming a little more difficult. Thank you for your daily newsletter.
Southwest Alabama - Wanted to throw out a moisture update for you from down south. It rained all day Monday, it started about 4am on the 17t. I guess we’ve got around 3 to 3.5 inches, the creeks running now first time since March. Plenty under the circumstances! I feel like winter is finally here. Usually sets in around Thanksgiving, so we have gotten an extra few weeks off of the beginning of winter. I am now starting to wonder if it might make it up on the end of winter. Got my Christmas present early!!!!!!!!!!! Our topsoil before this was better than last year at this time before this rain so this will be a good start on recharging profile. A long ways to go yet but this truly gives you hope after the drought. I'll take whatever I can get!
Southeast Nebraska - Still taken up more acres and farming is looking good. I farm 112 pivots in my corner of the state and fuel was starting to get to me. To give you an idea of what it’s like to feed that many pivots, I can tell you that from the time I drink my coffee one morning to the next it cost me about $35,000 dollars in fuel. I just bought 160 acres last Wednesday for $13,300\acre, and another 160 out by Aurora for about the same money. I can't seem to get enough. I farmed huge when no one else did. Back in the day Deere sent people out to study the 24 row planters I built. I’m approaching 30k plus acres and its 100% irrigated except the corners. The key I have found to growth is to buy a lot of ground, not just rent it all, and have your marketing down pat on a strict business plan. I have since invested in part of Whiskey Creek steakhouses, as a side venture. It’s fun I just don’t know how profitable it is. Have a happy holiday!
Global Numbers & Market Talk
  • Talk in Brazil is that soybeans could start being harvested by mid-January, just three to four weeks away. 
  • According to the National Weather Service, this is the third warmest December start in Chicago since 1871.
  • Corn inspections now down almost 52% from last year; Wheat inspections down by about 13% compared to last year; Soybean inspection ahead of last year by about 40%.
  • Hearing that China booked another 1 million metric tons of US soybeans on top of what was announced Friday. Chinese crush margins continue to be positive and higher prices are coming as soymeal supplies are tight.
  • Private exporters report sales of 151,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. India is thought to be tendering for 100,000 metric tons of wheat exports.
  • Remember, the January soybean options expire Friday with biggest open interest at $15.
  • Hearing talk that blasting of rock pinnacles on the Mississippi River to start sometime this week, along with increased dredging activity.
  • Rosario Grain Exchange cuts Argentine corn crop to 24 million metric tons. This is a substantial cut from the USDA’s estimate at 27.5 million metric tons. Wheat is cut to 9.5 million metric tons vs. the USDA’s estimate at 11.5 million metric tons. More confirmation that wet weather is beginning to take its toll.
  • Argentine corn seed is only 70% complete as compared to 82% last year. Soybean seeding is 73% complete nearly on par with the 77% level this time last year.
  • Celeres is confirming that Brazil will increase the amount of land planted with genetically modified soybeans, corn and cotton by 14% this season from a year ago as it shoulders a growing share of the world’s agricultural output. Nearly 89% of Brazil’s soybean crop, which is likely to be the largest in the world when it is harvested early next year.
  • Production estimates for Brazil soybeans continue to positive as AgRural has now raised their estimate to 82.2 million metric tons from 81.9 million in November.
  • Ukraine’s wheat stocks fell to 6.5 million metric tons as of December 1st from 8.2 million a month earlier according to data from state statistics. This is said to be just enough to cover domestic needs for the rest of the season as the government urged traders to halt exports. To be clear, this is just short of officially banning exports. Interestingly enough, Indonesia bought an unknown volume of Ukraine wheat for spot shipment over the weekend.
  • Analysts at SovEcon pegs Russian wheat exports at 13.3 million metric tons. USDA has them at 10 million metric tons. This would leave them only 1 million metric tons left.
  • Hearing that Speaker of the House, John Boehner has moved closer by offering tax hike on $1 million and above income earners. He also says he would allow a 1 year only debt ceiling hike.
  • I continue to hear warnings that credit rating agencies really care about how the debt ceiling situation is handled and could down grade if the issue isn’t resolved quickly. The agencies have also made it known that want to see a plan for the federal debt as well.
  • Interesting to see new estimates from Continental Resources that show a possible 903 billion barrels of original oil in place in the Bakken oil fields in North Dakota. That’s an increased estimate of nearly 57% from what they thought back in 2010.
  • Europe will have to "work very hard" to maintain the most generous welfare system in the world and remain globally competitive, said Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.
  • U.S. banks are making a last-minute push to ease new global liquidity requirements, arguing that they would need to come up with an additional $800 billion.
  • The British treasury stands to raise as much as 1 billion pounds ($1.61 billion) by selling Ministry of Defence airwaves currently reserved for military purposes.
  • Japan's Liberal Democratic party has crushed the ruling Democrats in an election landslide.
  • Chobani, the yogurt company that grew from nothing five years ago to a roughly $1 billion powerhouse today, on Monday will formally open one of the world's largest yogurt-processing plants in Twin Falls, Idaho.
From My Perspective
GMO Technology to Help Create Gluten-Free Wheat???
I saw some an interesting question being posed: Can scientists create gluten-free wheat plants to make bread with? It’s interesting as you know because the “gluten-free” diet has really become an everyday-mainstream topic as of late. It’s also a compelling story because it is dealing with biotechnology and the manipulation of seed traits. For those of you scoring at home, “biotechnology” is basically another way of saying “genetically modified organism.” The
necessity to create a gluten-free wheat is in response to the serious gluten allergies such as "celiac’s disease" that seem to be more prevalent as of late. If you know anybody with it, you know it can be a very serious allergy that can cause abdominal pain, nutritional deficiencies and a progressive flattening of the tiny hairlike villi in the stomach that are needed for proper digestion of food. Gluten is a very complicated mix of proteins that are stored in seeds of wheat, barley and rye, and some -- not all of them -- are believed to trigger the allergic reactions. Right now, the only really good way of conquering these allergies is to swear off all foods containing wheat, barley and rye. Obviously, that is not an easy task for anyone. From what I understand, scientists at Washington State University in Pullman (whose research is documented in the journal PNAS) have begun experimenting with sifting through different varieties of wheat and barley lines that lack, or make a lot less of, key gluten proteins in their grains. From here they hone in on a key enzyme which helps activate a complete set of genes that make the most problematic gluten proteins. Using a genetic engineering trick, they knocked out that enzyme. As a result, the seeds of the wheat they studied had sharply reduced levels of this set of problem proteins. The scientists believe it will take more experimenting before they can create a line that fully eliminates the problem proteins entirely. However, they seem to think they have a good chance of doing it while still keeping its capacity for baking bread. You have to believe this is good news, not only for people dealing with celiac’s disease, but also to most farmers and GMO supporters. If scientists can start finding new ways that biotechnology can help people out beyond increasing yields, you can bet the general public will be more apt to get on board and support it. Let’s hope their work comes to fruition and we can see some real differences made from biotechnology and genetically modified crops.
If Doomsday Followers Are Correct...Friday Will Be Our Last Day of Trading???
We are moving closer and closer to December 21st (this Friday), the end of the Mayan calendar, and the supposed end of the world as we know it. Millions of individuals from California to China are getting ready for what they are thinking is going to be a really bad day. As you know, December 21st marks the end of the 5,125 year cycle known to the Maya as the “Long Count.” We talked about this a few months back, but the 2009 disaster movie “2012” helped to spark doomsday rumors as the flick showed Los Angeles crashing into the sea and mammoth tsunami waves swallowing the Himalayas. Since then, writers, bloggers and New Age visionaries have come out of the woodwork giving alarming predictions in an attempt to stoke the panic. From what I understand, governments and scientists are trying to get a head of any possible tragedy. Even NASA intervened earlier this month, running a YouTube video debunking apocalyptic points, one by one. You can see one of those videos HERE. Some of the most interesting rumors that people are concerned about are as follows:

  • Some believe a rogue planet called "Nibiru" will emerge from its hiding place behind the sun and smash into the Earth. The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012 and linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.
  • A Super Black Hole at the center of the universe will suck in our planet and smash it to pieces. One theory suggests a galactic alignment which would create chaos on Earth because of the gravitational effect between the Sun and the Black hole called Sagittarius A, which is located at the center of our galaxy.
  • Another theory involves a 'polar shift', which means a reversal of the north and south magnetic poles.
  • In France, there’s a mountain where people are converging to await the arrival of aliens.
  • At least two men in China are predicting a world-ending flood. They are both building arks. The reports I saw show a gentleman named Lu Zhenghai who spent his life savings, some $160,000, building the 70 foot by 50 foot vessel powered by three diesel engines (pictured below). The most innovative ark builder, however, is Yang Zongfu, a 32 year old businessman in eastern China. His vessel, Atlantic, a three ton yellow steel ball 13 feet in diameter, is designed to survive a volcano, tsunami, earthquake or nuclear meltdown (pictured below).
  • The Chinese seemed to be the most concerned with an estimated 1 out of every 5 taking precautions of some sort. From what I have heard there have already been more than 100 million posts on Weibo, China’s version of Twitter, about Friday's scheduled end of the World.
I should point out not everybody sees a doomsday scenario. Some folks are actually joining a global counter movement promoting the date as the start of a new era of hope. I have heard one of the biggest movements is called "Birth 2012" which they believe the Mayan date will launch a global spiritual reset. Interestingly enough, in Mexico, the heartland of Mayan country, nobody is preparing for the end of the world, instead they are banking big bucks off a tidal wave of visitors who have been flocking to ancient sites across Mexico of Mayan day of doom. Before you go out and spend your life savings building an arc, just keep in mind many anthropologists as well as historians aren’t even sure whether the end of the Mayan calendar falls on December 21st, or whether it’s already happened or is still to come. Also understand that there have been many end-of-world predictions over the course of history sourced from both religious and non-religious beliefs. Just as recently as last year, American Christian radio host Harold Camping predicted the rapture occurring on May 21, 2011, and again on October 21, 2011.... Guess what? We are still here!

Cash Sales & Hedging TotalsPie Table
Today In History
1918 - The Battle of Verdun was fought on this day one of the major battles during the First World War on the Western Front. It resulted in 714,321 casualties, 377,231 on the French side and 337,000 on the German one, an average of 70,000 casualties for each of the ten months of the battle. It was the longest and one of the most devastating battles in the First World War and the history of warfare. Modern estimates increase the number of casualties to 976,000.The concentration of so much fighting in such a small area devastated the land, resulting in miserable conditions for troops on both sides. Rain combined with the constant tearing up of the ground turned the clay of the area to a wasteland of mud clogged with corpses and body parts. In some areas, the ground was composed more of human flesh and bone than of earth or vegetation. Shell craters became filled with a liquid ooze, becoming so slippery that troops who fell into them or took cover in them could drown. Forests were reduced to tangled piles of wood by constant artillery shelling, and eventually they were completely obliterated. The effect on soldiers in the battle was devastating. Many troops at the battle never actually saw the enemy, experiencing nothing but artillery shells. One French lieutenant at Verdun who was later killed by an artillery shell wrote in his diary on 23 May 1916 "Humanity is mad. It must be mad to do what it is doing. What a massacre! What scenes of horror and carnage! I cannot find words to translate my impressions. Hell cannot be so terrible. Men are mad!"
1932 - The Chicago Bears and the Portsmouth Spartans tied with the best regular-season winning percentages (although the Green Bay Packers had four more wins). To determine the champion, the league voted to hold the first official playoff game in Chicago at Wrigley Field. Because of severe winter conditions before the game, and fear of low turnout, the game was held indoors at Chicago Stadium which forced some temporary rule changes. The game was played on a modified 80-yard dirt field, and Chicago won 9–0, winning the league championship. A number of new rule changes were instituted, many inspired by the 1932 indoor championship game: the goal posts were moved forward to the goal line, every play started from between the hash marks, and forward passes could originate from anywhere behind the line of scrimmage (instead of five yards behind). The playoff game proved so popular that the league reorganized into two divisions for the 1933 season, with the winners advancing to a scheduled championship game.
1996 - (Oakland Unified School District) called on "Ebonics" to be recognized as a language of African Americans. The proposal was to implement a program. Ebonics (a blend of the words ebony and phonics) is a term that was originally intended to refer to the language of all people descended from enslaved Black Africans, particularly in West Africa, the Caribbean, and North America. The term Ebonics has primarily been used to refer to African American Vernacular English (AAVE), a dialect distinctively different from Standard American English. National attitudes towards African American Vernacular English were revisited when a controversial resolution from the Oakland (California) school board the wording states African American language systems "have origins in West [sic] and Niger–Congo languages and are not merely dialects of English. . . ." In reality, the belief underlying the Oakland proposal was that black students would perform better in school and more easily learn standard American English if textbooks and teachers incorporated AAVE in teaching black children to speak Standard English rather than mistakenly equating nonstandard with substandard and dismissing AAVE as the latter.
Upcoming Events
Fri. 12/21 - Cattle On Feed Report
Mon. 12/24 - Early CBOT & KBOT
Tues. 12/25 - Markets are closed for trade
Fri. 12/28 - Quarterly Hogs & Pig Report
Tues. 1/1 2013 - New Years Observed, markets closed Wednesday Jan 2, 2013. Markets open 9:30 am central.
Fri. 1/11 - USDA Grain Stocks and Final Production Report
Inside The Numbers
• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $9.47
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $8.45
• Short-Term Resistane Level #1 @ $7.76

• Previous Close $7.24
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $7.14
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $6.75
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $5.51

• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $17.95
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $16.45
• Short-Term Resistane Level #1 @ $15.09

• Previous Close $14.96^2
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $13.72
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $12.49
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $10.94

• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $11.55
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $10.15
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $9.50

• Previous Close $8.08
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $7.74
• Intermediate SupportLevel#2 @ $6.69
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $5.65

• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $139.90
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $135.55
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $133.60

• Previous Close $133.500
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $128.15
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $125.30
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $123.70

• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $97.475
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $94.425
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $88.50

• Previous Close $84.750
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $82.55
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $79.05
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $76.85

• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $100.50
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $94.10
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $90.35

• Previous Close $87.67
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $84.50
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $77.30
• Intermediate Support Level #3 @ $67.10

• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $1,625.50
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $1,527.00
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $1,468.20

• Previous Close $1,427.75
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $1,340.00
• Intermediate Support Level #2 @ $1,262.50
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $1,068.00

• Long-Term Resistance Level #3 @ $86.80
• Intermediate Resistance Level #2 @ $86.60
• Short-Term Resistance Level #1 @ $84.30

• Previous Close $79.620
• Short-Term Support Level #1 @ $78.05
• IntermediateSupport Level #2 @ $75.10
• Long-Term Support Level #3 @ $72.80

What Others Are Saying
“I am a recent subscriber to Kevin’s newsletter, but I’m a long-time reader of many other high-profile marketing services. I am particularly impressed with the thorough manner in which Kevin evaluates every economic aspect, both nationally and internationally, that influences commodity prices. His analysis and conclusions are highly thought out and conveyed in layman’s terms so that the reader can comprehend the numerous and often complex interrelationships that impact the markets. Kevin is a real attribute to the agricultural sector.”
“As a national federal farm policy administrator and commodity producer, I find it critical to keep updated with what is going on in the real world of agriculture and with the domestic and global markets. Of all the services I’ve have been privy to or have subscribed to over the past 20 years I’ve found in the past several months of engaging in your “Farm Direction” services to be the best perception and analysis of what is really happening in today’s world. Not only here in the United States, but across the globe as well. US farmers need this type of help and information to assist them in their daily efforts. I commend you for a job well done. Please let me know if I can ever be of any help or assistance to you in the future…”
L.T., Assistant Deputy Administrator for Farm Programs USDA
More Testimonials
Crop Tools
Marketing Tools
My Own Personal Truisms
"Not To Trade, is often considered a good trading decision..."
"First Rule of HOLES: When you are in one stop digging..."
"Every loser in Vegas, always walks away from the table thinking he could have done better, the winners on the other hand leave while on top..."
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered..."
"The markets ability to remain irrational can often times last much longer than your ability to remain solvent..."
I'm more of a long-term player, therefore you will not see me give many short-term suggestions or trade ideas. One of my most important rules is that I always follow my long-term direction. Therefore, as long as I am "bullish" a market I will only play that particular market in one of three ways.
  • Option #1 - Conservatively long.
  • Option #2 - Aggressively long.
  • Option #3 - Sitting on the sideline.
I never initiate a "short" position in a market that I am "bullish" longer-term, nor do I initiate a "long" position in a market I am "bearish" longer-term.

No comments:

Post a Comment