Monday, June 18, 2012

Grain Market Comments 6-18-2012

Markets closed firmer across the board today behind dry and hot weather.

Corn was up 20 on old crop, new crop corn was up 28, beans where firmer by 8 cents on old crop, new crop beans where up 25 cents, KC wheat was up by about 21 cents, MPLS was 12-15 higher, CBOT wheat was up 21, equities closed mixed with the DOW off by 25 points while the NASDAQ was firmer, crude was off 70 cents a barrel, and the US dollar up 330 on the cash index at 81.957.

With the mixed to weaker outside markets all one can really say for the grain markets today is impressive.  But keep in mind where these markets where just last week; so maybe I should say impressive one day price action as most of our markets are still well below last week’s highs.

This afternoon we had crop conditions and this is really what helped our price action out today.  Not the new numbers that saw decreases in the conditions this afternoon but the stress the our crops are under from hot and dry weather with more forecasts calling for the same in many parts of the eastern corn belt; at a time when some area’s are starting to pollinate. 

The thing about weather driven markets is they can be extremely volatile; give it all back and then some in a hurry or run for an extended period of time.  They are not for the tame at heart.  In regards to marketing grain during a weather rally usually people are making comments that once we get a weather scare I will make a sale and then it happens typically fear and greed keep the sale from happening.  Fear that they are being effected by the weather rally such as experiencing drought or greed from the idea that the prices will run for an extended period of time and no one wants to sell to early and miss the 2008 spring wheat type of rally.  I don’t know if today’s bounce was the start of another big rally for the grains or just another selling opportunity in a longer term bear market.  I do know however that price bounces give producers opportunities to help manage their risk.  If you need help in managing your risk or looking at a grain marketing plan please give us a call.

As mentioned above crop conditions where down this afternoon with corn conditions down 3% to 63% G/E.  Soybean conditions where down 3% also to 56% G/E.

Corn basis is under pressure and very volatile as many bids are in the process of rolling to the September futures.  Look for our local basis to see plenty of pressure because as of this moment our two main buyers have no bid for corn until new crop.  One of the ethanol plants has to buy more if they run at full speed; but if the scale back they probably have coverage to get until new crop.  The other still has to buy for August September; but only if they run.  Talking to them it looks like they have no coverage but with margins don’t have a lot of interest buying either.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)

This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.

No comments:

Post a Comment