Crude oil is $1.00 lower…Gold is $2.00 lower…Greece
and now other EU countries have their hand out too…DJIA is down 4
points…US$ is 0.300 firmer
Corn----modestly higher early, then the pit opened at 930am,
volumes increased and buy paper pushed things higher, now pressing 18 cents
higher. Parts of the ECB are critically dry, not having seen any substantial
rain for 5+/- weeks and some of this crop gets ready to tassel. IN missed most
of the rains and rain chances the next few days is hit or miss. Parts of ILL,
WI and MN are sitting in very good shape…so the 166bpa USDA yield estimate is
getting harder to achieve by the day and it was a lofty # to begin with as that
seemed unattainable from the beginning as these monster yields the seed corn
companies keep promising never seem to show up. But this year the US farmer had
the $ to spend, and spend he did as fertilizer and micro nutrient salespeople
should be getting some good commission checks. This spending may surprise
everyone on yields, but we will have to wait and see on that. Farmer selling is
relatively slow as they want $7.00 or seem willing to sit on the old crop,
fully aware of the inverse. At least for now!!! USDA acres report in a few
weeks and 96 mil or 97 mil or 95 mil may get trumped by weather! New tin piggy
banks provide a lot of storage capacity. Spreads are mixed as N/U is
steady/firm at a 70 inverse. The N/Z is a 72 ¾ inverse as the U/Z narrows
toward even $ on the early harvest/crop potential. . Z/H is a 12 ¼ carry and
the Z/N is a 26 ½ c arry. Hearing some ethanol plants are slowing or shutting
down ans margins are poor and origination is tough. Export inspections of
24.7mb is behind the 33mb weekly pace needed.
Soybeans---Double digits higher but well off today’s highs.
Acting to follow corn and bean weather is the same as corn weather. Plus many
believe Brazil is nearly out of beans, so I guess they didn’t have muddy dirt
roads to truck these beans over this year in record time. China has been quiet
as they want to sell more soybeans from reserves. US acres report on June 29
may be a surprise, did the US farmer switch acres or just find a way to plant
more of everything this year? Many bean fields are still in their ugly phase
but rain and heat can do wonderful things to a growing soybeans crop. It
appears there is plenty of heat coming but rain is the large ?...Farmer sells a
few and elevators sell some basis length to the processor. Shuttle qtys are
getting hard to come by in the WCB. Sounds like ECB may still have a few beans
left and with the crop dry, selling may be slow too. Spreads are slightly
weaker. N/Q is a 16 inverse. N/X is a 56 inverse and the X/F is even to 1/2
carry…Export inspections of 7.9mb is slightly behind the new export pace needed
to reach 1.335bb
Wheat---HRW harvest is in full swing in Kansas. Hearing
reports the mills do not like the milling/baking quality of this crop even
though quality is very good and proteins are decent. But not hearing this from
everyone so I do not know what or if there is an issue or is someone talking
position?????? DNS crop looks fabulous in most of ND, what will USDA say on
acres. Hearing a lot of barley acres got planted because growing contract were
quite high priced. MGEx is inverted while KC and CME are carries. Bids roll
early and people panic. A lot of new tim piggy banks in wheat country too, so
what is actually still on farm? More than people think I would guess.
World demand remains steady with Russia/Black Sea having been a concern since
last fall’s seeding. Aussie dryness a concern to some too as they finish
seeding. EU winter wheat appears OK for now as they get ready to harvest.
Argentina seeds wheat too.
…current radar moves a system thru Michigan and scattered
across MN and WI…ILL and IN may not get much rain the next 24 hrs…see DTN map
below…next 5 day map from NOAA also included
Christopher Steinhoff
Market Analyst
800-328-6530
651-355-6558
651-355-3723 fax
Market Analyst
800-328-6530
651-355-6558
651-355-3723 fax
No comments:
Post a Comment