Grain Markets are called mixed this morning as they await
for the USDA report that will be out at 11; when the overnight session ended we
had corn off 1 ½ cents, KC wheat down 7, MPLS wheat down 6, CBOT wheat down 7,
old crop beans down 2, and new crop beans up 2.
Outsides at 8:10 have the US Dollar stronger up nearly 400 ticks at 79.80
on the June US Dollar Futures, crude is up 60 cents a barrel, gold is up 2
bucks an ounce, and the DOW Mini Futures are pointing towards a lower start of
about 12 points on the DOW.
Today is all about the USDA report; at least until it
happens. Depending what the report says
it will tell us things like how important weather should be; maybe if the
market needs to add more unknown fear premium or take it away.
I don’t know what the report will say; but I would recommend
knowing the possibilities and being comfortable for those unknown possibilities. For some that might mean having some sales
done or protection on ahead of the report; for those it might mean doing
nothing. Every marketing plan is
different; so the only recommendation can be find a way to be comfortable.
Here are the estimates for the report; this comes from the
Van Trump Report.
US 2013/14 Ending Stocks
|
|
USDA 5/9
|
USDA Apr.
|
Avg. Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
USDA 2013
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
1.331
|
1.314
|
1.231 - 1.435
|
0.821
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
0.135
|
0.134
|
0.125 - 0.17
5
|
0.141
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
0.583
|
0.5
90
|
0.570 - 0.63
0
|
0.718
|
US 2014/15 Ending Stocks
|
|
USDA 5/9
|
USDA Feb
|
Avg. Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
2.1
|
1.672
|
1.295 - 2.
3
54
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
.285
|
0.307
|
0.200 - 0.464
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
.587
|
0.553
|
0.425 - 0.652
|
US Wheat Production
|
|
USDA 5/9
|
USDA June
|
Avg. Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
USDA 2013
|
|
All
Winter
|
???
|
1.509
|
1.468
|
1.312 - 1.591
|
1.534
|
|
Hard Red
Winter
|
???
|
0.781
|
0.782
|
0.610 - 0.870
|
0.744
|
|
Soft Red
Winter
|
???
|
0.509
|
0.467
|
0.
409
- 0.
570
|
0.
56
5
|
|
White
Winter
|
???
|
0.219
|
0.2
20
|
0.188 - 0.268
|
0.225
|
|
All Wheat
|
???
|
2.080
|
2.0
50
|
1.891 - 2.182
|
2.130
|
World 2013/14 Ending
Stocks
|
|
USDA 5/9
|
USDA Apr.
|
Avg. Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
158.00
|
157.31
|
149.45 - 161.20
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
69.42
|
69.77
|
67.30 - 73.00
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
186.68
|
185.95
|
181.91 - 189.00
|
World 2014/15 Ending
Stocks
|
|
USDA 5/9
|
USDA Apr.
|
Avg. Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Corn
|
???
|
NA
|
159.41
|
149.90 - 175.00
|
|
Soybeans
|
???
|
NA
|
80.34
|
67.00 - 95.00
|
|
Wheat
|
???
|
NA
|
184.53
|
178.00 - 200.00
|
South American
Production 2014
|
|
USDA 5/9
|
USDA April
|
Avg. Guess
|
Range of Guesses
|
|
Argentina
Corn
|
???
|
24.00
|
23.86
|
22.30 - 23.86
|
|
Argentina
Soybeans
|
???
|
54.00
|
54.40
|
53.50- 57.00
|
Brazil
Corn
|
???
|
72.00
|
72.10
|
70.50 - 74.00
|
|
Brazil
Soybeans
|
???
|
87.50
|
87.23
|
86.50 - 87.50
|
As mentioned the market will trade the
USDA report for a little bit but then it should go back to trying to define
production. It is really early to define
row crop production and really probably to early to know for sure what HRW
production will be; but once the market can define production it can then
determine if it needs to move higher to curb demand or lower to increase
demand. In the meantime as it determines
crop sizes it should add a little fear premium or weather premium; that’s is
part of the reason corn has had a strong seasonal tendency to get weaker after
the fourth of July.
Basis continues to be weaker locally;
part of that is due to the unknowns of the takeover regarding this rail
line. Also the rail roads in general
have made good progress; now many elevators are having low inventory and not
looking to load trains out. Freight
costs have went down for spot; but new crop freight is still very high. Look for basis to be very choppy and continue
to be highly impacted by what the railroad does or doesn’t do. Overall it feels
like our area has more supply then demand; and most of our local ethanol plants
seem to be covered until August; some later.
Below is more market info
This is from Tregg Cronin with Halo
Commodities……… good read.
The below is from CHS Hedging Morning Highlights
Morning Highlights
By Richard Plackemeier
Highlights
- USDA May
S&D report out today at 11:00 a.m. CST. This report should include the
first 2014/15 crop production estimates from USDA.
- Rains
moving across the Mississippi River valley this morning.Wet conditions for
Minnesota and the Dakotas are generating some concern that planting of
wheat and corn will be delayed.
- US dollar
index is up .214 points this morning to 79.656.June Crude oil is up +.37
to $100.63.Dow Jones equity futures are down -21.00 early on.
Corn
- Average
market estimate for May report 2013/14 corn carryout 1.314 bil bu Carryout
for 2014/15 estimated 1.672 bil bu.Range from 1.295-2.354 bil bu.
- USDA
outlook forum in February used 14/15 corn yield of 163.5 bpa in initial
forecasts.
- Many
market watchers expect Monday’s crop progress planting estimate to come in
50% to 60% complete.
- Ukraine
corn planting is estimated to be 76% complete.
Outlook:
the US currently has 44.17 mil tons of corn exports now on the books, versus
USDA’s last projection of 44.45 mil tons. So the balance scales are about
even. A few corn cancellations showing up this week, along with questions from
the pork feeding sector may be the key to watch for any major old crop
adjustments in US corn carryout. The market will quickly shift focus to new
crop yield potential once this crop is in the ground.
Oilseeds
- China
intends to offer up to 300k tons of beans out of state reserves next week.
The government has said up to 3.0 mil tons in total may be offered over
the next several months.
- Average market
estimate for May report 2013/14 bean carryout 134 mil bu.Carryout for
2014/15 estimated 307 mil bu. Range from 200-464 mil bu.
- USDA
outlook forum in February used 14/15 bean yield of 45.2 bpa.
- Buenos
Aires Grain Exchange is projecting Argentine bean production at 55.5 mil
tons, versus previous estimate of 54.5 mil.
Outlook: with US bean
stocks poised to show another tight number, the market will try to balance
coming imports from Brazil and a potential building world supply for
2014/15.
Wheat
- Jordan is
tendering for up to 100k tons of optional origin milling wheat.
- Trade
expectations for May wheat production forecast: all wheat2.046 bil bu.,
HRW 782 mil, SRW 467 mil, SWW 219 mil, all winter wheat 1.468 bil bu.
- This
week’s rain event was mainly less than needed, as rains were limited to
mostly northern HRW areas and parts of southern/central Oklahoma. The
driest areas again missed any significant moisture.
Outlook: KC wheat
futures have rallied significantly this week on production concerns. HRW
spreads to SRW and HRS have increased markedly, and continue to keep users and
buyers looking for alternatives.
Grain
Merchandiser
Midwest
Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100
(cell)
605-258-2166
(fax)
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