Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Wheat Tour Twitter info

Below is info form Twitter on the Crop Tour

Using Hash Tag #wheattour13 and following @hedgeit


  1. 4h
    Field 10. Howell, KS. 18" tall. Under pivot. Stalks blown over.

  2. 4h
    Field 9. Outside Garden City, KS. 10" tall. Flood irrigation. Visual 44. Calculated 38.


  3. 5h
    Field 6 close up.


  4. 5h
    Field 8. Kearny county, KS. 4" tall. Irrigated. Visual 24. Calculated 32.


  5. 5h
    Field 7. Outside Syracuse, KS. 6-8" tall. Irrigated. Visual 37. Calculated 41.


  6. 5h
    Field 6. Hamilton county close up.


  7. 6h
    Field 6. Hamilton county. Dry land. Frost damage. 7 visual. 12 calculated.


  8. 6h
    Field 5. Greeley county. Dry land. 4" tall. Visual 20. Calculated 21.


    1. 56m
      RT : Name that damage. Some pressure on this wheat west of Greensburg, calculated 31.5 bpa
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      2:25 PM - 1 May 13 · Details
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    2. 57m
      3 mi east of Prospect Valley, Co., est 48 bu/yield.
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      2:23 PM - 1 May 13 · Details
    3. 9h
      Greeley Co., western Kan. 5 bpa potential, but likely abandoned. Many fields in the area look like this.
      Retweeted 16 times
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      5:47 AM - 1 May 13 · Details
    4. 1h
      After 16 stops, my car averaged 38.8 bpa compared to 40.4 on this route last year. Highest yield 66, lowest 21 bpa.
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    5. 1h
      38.2 calculated bpa in Kingman, good stand, but not as thick.
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    6. 2h
      Time to play, "Name that Damage!" Wheat near Pratt looks good. 48.4 bpa when lowering the std deviation.
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    7. 2h
      Irrigated wheat, east of Larned; 36 bpa yield potential. Forecast of 27; could be trouble if it freezes.
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    8. 2h
      In Kiowa county, found some freeze damage, but wheat is recovering well, 42 bpa seems plausible
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    9. 3h
      Last stop in Woods Co. Got an estimated yield of 45.9 bpa. Taller stands, some disease pressure, but overall pretty good.
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    10. 3h
      Our team reports excellent field in Rice County south of Lyons. Jointed, dark green. 54 bpa estimate
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    11. 3h
      Name that damage. Some pressure on this wheat west of Greensburg, calculated 31.5 bpa
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    12. 4h
      1st heads emerging in Harper Co. Thinner stand, but tall. One head had 18 spikelets. Est. 30.5 bpa
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    13. 5h
      26 miles west of Jetmore, freeze dmg in this field. 34 bpa.
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      9:28 AM - 1 May 13 · Details
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    14. 6h
      Hard Winter Wheat Crop Tour - Day One Report
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    15. 6h
      Near Cimarron - dead whorls in plant. 39.7 bpa taking freeze into account.
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    16. 6h
      Irrig field E. of Garden; some freeze dmg to leaves. 1st time we can dissect heads. 42 bpa.
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    17. 7h
      This field is in Lane County and estimated at 37.75 bpa. Our team reports it still needs moisture
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    18. 8h
      RT : Near Winona, this farm has had 6-inches of rain total in the last 2 years. 0 bpa.
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      6:45 AM - 1 May 13 · Details
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      1. 8h
        makes a guy pretty sad seeing something like this.
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      2. 8h
        ....that's kinda sobering, makes one thankful for their own set of problems
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    19. 8h
      QT Weather: KS Tour. 010-0.50 W KS next 48 hours (snow precip) 1-2+ inches C and E KS (25F Goodland Fri)
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    20. 8h
      Near Winona, this farm has had 6-inches of rain total in the last 2 years. 0 bpa.
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    21. 8h
      13 bpa - if it rains. Near Winona in NWKS. Remember, yield potential only w/good weather from now on.
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      6:26 AM - 1 May 13 · Details
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    22. 9h
      Long deadhead. Windshield impression of wheat S. of Garden City along Hwy 83: drought damage not as visible as expected
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    23. 9h
      Near Tribune...is it drought? Freeze? 15 bpa potential, with lots of help from Mother Nature.
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      6:19 AM - 1 May 13 · Details
    24. 9h
      Our team's day one estimate of the crop tour is 43.8 bpa, total stops 277 compared with 53.4 last year
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    25. 9h
      Greeley Co., western Kan. 5 bpa potential, but likely abandoned. Many fields in the area look like this.
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    26. 9h
      In Greeley county, calculations say 8.6 bpa, but our van is curious what the adjustors would estimate.
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    27. 9h
      Near Sharon Springs, irrig wheat has 39 bpa potential. Dry land wheat across the road has 7 bpa.
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    28. 9h
      Irrigated wheat near Sharon Springs est at 39 bpa, dryland corner across the road may make 8.5.
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    29. 10h
      First stop near Goodland,short, brown crop, calculations say 20 bpa, but we're guessing more like 5-10
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Daily Summary from CHS Hedging's Chris Steinhoff


At 115pm…crude oil was $2.70 lower, DJIA was 96 points lower, gold was down $20.00 and silver was 51 cents weaker…many countries are on the May Day holiday today..China economy slowing down?

Corn===spent most of the day lower with CZ feeling the most pressure
                ===weather and planting delays take center stage but was mostly ignored today, May 1
                ===Corn planters run in various part of the country, but a precip event moving across in a line from Duluth MN to Denver, CO, slows fieldwork
                ===weekly ethanol production was up last week at a marketing year high of 857k barrels/day..this equates to an annual grind of 4.793bb…USDA is at 4.550bb
                ===CIF was a nickel weaker for the spot time slot. Firmer in the deferreds....Chicago unload was firm…most processors were mainly steady/better..river bids were steady/firm
                ===The N/U firmed 3 ¾ cents today to a 73 ½ inverse…N/u had a trading range of 75 to 67 ¼ vs yesterday’s range of 75 to 65
                ===N/Z settled at a 95 ¾ inverse
                ===farmer selling was light but movement was definitely seen. Scattered old crop and new crop
                ===CZ held onto $5.50 on the close but well off yesterday’s high of $5.70…the 4/24 low(last Tuesday) was $5.17
                ===CZ14 even seeing some farmer interest
                ===market becoming OK with a few less acres?
                ===total export sales(old crop and new crop) estimates for tomorrow 800tmt to 1.0mmt

Beans===talk of China cancellations helped to pressure the nearby contracts
                ===CIF was  soft again today
                ===total old and new crop export sales estimates for tomorrow is 300-500tmt., meal 150-250 and soyoil 0-15…will there be net cancellations?
                ===Brazil harvest is nearly complete, Argy is almost 60% done
                ===front end Brazil basis is a 40-50 cent discount to June as logistics are still not running smoothly
                ===river basis seems to be slightly better, many crushers were firm
                ===some meal basis saw a weaker tone
                ===market acts like we may be gaining some beans acres
                ==SX flirts with the $12.00 mark again with the recetn low at $11.86 ½ offering support

Wheat===crop tours lead the headlines as the HRW gets into parts of KS where drought has had a negative effect
                ===but not all KS has a major [
                ==also hearing reports out of OK that some are guessing a state yield of 25-26bpa,
                ===MGex, KC K/N are inverted, CME is a carry…all are a carry N thru summer 2014
6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability 6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

Christopher Steinhoff
Market Analyst
800-328-6530
651-355-6558
651-355-3723 fax
www.chshedging.com

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Opening Comments - Wheat tour Recap Day 1


Markets continued yesterdays late selloff in the overnight session; with soybeans leading the pressure down.

In the overnight session corn was off 7-9 cents, soybeans were down 32 on the May contract, July beans were off 20 cents, November soybeans were down 12 cents a bushel, KC wheat was off about a dime, MPLS wheat off about 11, and CBOT wheat off 11 cents.  Outside markets look like a little risk off day and that might have helped pressure our grains a little last night.  Presently DOW futures are pointing to a slightly lower start, crude is off about 2.50 a barrel, gold is off about 14 bucks an ounce, and the US dollar is weaker.  The weaker dollar should help out our grains but it really hasn’t had the correlation as of late that it used to.

First day of the wheat tour came off as friendly with one leg about 10 bushels an acre less than last year, CO about 14 million bushels less than last year, and 11 bushels an acre less in NE.  Today is expected to show worse results.  The tweet I seen this a.m. said “ Field 1. Outside of Goodman. Visual yield 12. pic.twitter.com/cZ1MjHFBqL”

More info on day one of the door is below at bottom of the email.

Looks like some of the pressure in soybeans is coming from economic data out of China with their PMI coming in disappointing at 50.6 versus 50.9 last month.  This leads to questions about their demand for grains.

Latest forecasts show that much of the corn belt to get hit over the next 72 hours.  I did hear of some snow hitting parts of eastern South Dakota overnight and some talk yesterday was off a foot or so of snow in Iowa.

Deferred forecasts do look like they might have a window to get something done as many of the 6-10 and later forecasts are calling for below normal moisture now; but some areas are still cool.  We should stay rather choppy and volatile as more forecasts come out.  Bottom line is weather could be causing some acres to shift out of corn into either another crop or possibly even prevent planting.  There is also a good relationship between yield and planting.  But we need to keep in mind that 2009 which was one of the best yielding years ever also started late.  Weather in June/July/August is really what should make or break this crop.

Sounds like another freeze could hit much of the HRW belt tonight through Friday.   One thing to keep in mind is that so far the HRW has been hit with a couple different freeze events; but yet the tour isn’t finding much freeze damage more drought damage than anything.  The actual freeze damage might not show up until the combines hit.

We will have more wheat tour info as the day goes along and at 9:30 ethanol numbers will be out.


Other than that we should trade weather and maybe some technical trading.  One thing that we are really still missing for our markets to take off is demand and the headline to get the funds in their buying.  For us to have a true bull market we need to have solid demand and good money flowing coming into our markets.  Without them longer term rallies are probably suppose to be sold or used to take some risk off the table.  Outside markets should continue to make one nervous and our job over the next year or so is still going to be finding some demand; more year over year demand then we have ever done.  Keep in mind that pro’s and advisors are probably going to be selling the rallies until something changes with demand or the crop prospects really get ugly.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.


Below is a forward from one of our buyers that is one the crop tour.  I got this late last night

Feel free – it should be coming out in reports tomorrow also.

Jay A. Johnson
VP of Purchasing and Quality
Hesco, Inc
(605) 884-1115

From: CO-Pierre, Jeremey Frost [mailto:Jeremey.Frost@chsinc.com]
Sent: Tuesday, April 30, 2013 10:29 PM
To: Jay Johnson
Subject: Re: winter wheat tour - saw your bullish report

Thanks for update. Do care if I share this with my producers/contacts.

Sent from my iPhone

Jeremey Frost
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)
jeremey.frost@chsinc.com
www.midwestcooperatives.com
http://grainmarketingplans.blogspot.com/

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This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.


On Apr 30, 2013, at 10:25 PM, "Jay Johnson" <JayJ@hesco-inc.com> wrote:
The first day of the winter wheat tour is completed and despite the tweets that went out today from different sources on the tour that sent the wheat market on the rise -  the results were not too bad for the 2013 crop.  I was on the yellow route that went through the Northern 3rd of the state.  Our group estimated 43 bushels per acre for the day – which ended up being the average for those touring the Northern ½ of the state along with groups that also went into Southern Nebraska.  The central part of Kansas and western Kansas was in tougher shape – but yields in those areas are still in the teens and 20’s for averages and there is a sentiment that farmers will not plow them up as they want ground cover to avoid any potential soil erosion – therefore adding to the ending stocks versus just taking an insurance payment for a total crop loss.  The day’s average of 43.8 bushels per acre for the entire group (20 cars) is the 4th highest 1st day total in the past 8 years.  Larger than 2009, 2010 and 2011 – so despite the concerns you have heard in the media – the first day numbers were decent.  Our group also stopped by local elevators in Lucas and Zurich, KS and both indicated they expect a record wheat crop due to the acres that were planted this past fall.  The wheat is a couple weeks behind – but with moisture they should have a good crop.

Folks from  Colorado were also present.  They reported they anticipate 20% abandonment of acres in Colorado – mostly south of the I-70 line.  They felt there was real good potential in the northern portion of the state.  They estimated yields in Colorado to be 34 bushels per acre for the 11 stops they had on their way to Colby, KS.  They also anticipate their crop is about 3 weeks behind schedule. 

Nebraska wheat staff reported on the condition in Nebraska and they anticipate Nebraska taking a big hit.  In the Chappelle area (southwest) crop insurance agents projected a yield of 3 bushels to the acre for a few growers.  In the panhandle they anticipate 10 to 50 bushels per acre – depending on moisture that was real hit and miss out there.  In the southern part of the state some areas received adequate moisture where other areas did not and about 10% of the crop did not emerge.  They anticipate statewide yields to average in the 30’s per bushel. 

Wednesday is anticipated to be tougher news as the southwest portion of Kansas is in tough shape due to the drought and some freeze damage – but we will see in person tomorrow.  It is also supposed to snow and sleet tomorrow – so the moisture will be good for the crop. 

Sincerely,
Jay A. Johnson



Jeremey Frost
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
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