Showing posts with label Closing Grain Commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Closing Grain Commentary. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
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Monday, July 22, 2013
Closing Grain Market Comments - Bottom in or has the free fall just started?
Markets closed mixed today in a tale of two stories. The
tight old crop situation for some of the row crops and the weather being the
two stories out there.
When everything was done corn was down 3 cents, KC wheat was
down 3 cents, MPLS wheat was lower by 4 cents, August soybeans were up 30
cents, November soybeans were up 15 cents, crude was down a buck, the DOW was about
unchanged up 2 points, the Dollar was under some pressure with the cash index
at 82.216, and gold was up 42 bucks an ounce.
August soybeans were the bright spot for our markets and
they helped pull some of the other markets well off of their lows. The old crop soybean situation is just
extremely tight. No other way to put
it. Now trading the old crop beans is
tough because basis seems to move 20 cents or more a day. I did talk to an end user at one point today
and he mentioned how bids were getting weaker 20 cents a day; yet he also
really seemed to want an offer so that the beans I was working on didn’t go to
another spot.
The bottom line for old crop grains like soybeans, corn,
milo, and even millet is things are thin.
If an end users needed the product they have to pay up. If they don’t it is tough to move things. No
offer is unreasonable; yet at any time all the offers could be way too high. Just a very high stakes poker game with many
components. The end users need to have
enough so they don’t run out; but they also don’t want to have any extra once
prices become cheaper. When will prices
be cheaper? Sometime when they are
covered or once new crop supply starting hitting them. Bottom line is the old crop situation for
some of these grains will remain explosive and volatile with lots of head games. We might see basis bids drop 20-50 cents in a
couple days only see it bounce as much or more should the buyers actually need
something.
As for the weather it is really debatable. But the headline that the funds seem to be
trading is that we have cool weather during pollination; with many areas also
getting moisture to go along with cool weather.
Don’t get me wrong plenty of areas have issues and have missed moisture
or maybe even got too much. But as a
whole the headline is a much bigger crop then a year ago for corn. The question many are asking is our corn crop
this year only 33 bushels more than a year ago.
I guess we really won’t know that for some time and as far as I am
concerned we are now just enter the phase when we should start guessing the
crop size. The real estimates shouldn’t
start until about now or maybe not even until the Aug crop report.
As for the bean crop many are talking the opposite; talking
that the bean yield the USDA has is too big.
That the bean production number should come down. Same thing here I really thing we are jumping
the gun even guessing at the bean crop size this early in the game.
Elsewhere we did have export shipments this a.m.; overall ok
to good for wheat at 23.1 million bushels; which is more than the 19.7 that we
need on a per week basis to hit current USDA estimate. The corn and beans shipments were light of
what we need on a per week basis; beans came in at 2.8 million bushels and corn
came in a 8.9 million bushels.
The other big news was this afternoon was crop
conditions.
Here is CHS Hedging link with recap.
I didn’t see any major surprises; we had corn conditions
drop 3% in the G/E slot. Very much as
expected but a drop in conditions nevertheless.
Corn silking came in at 43% versus the average of 56%.
Spring wheat conditions dropped 2% and soybean conditions
dropped 1%. Pod setting was at 8%
compared to the average of 19%.
As mentioned I don’t see any major surprises in the
condition update. I think weather will
be more important than this afternoons crop condition report; and those
forecasts can change with little notice.
The North Dakota Wheat Quality Council tour is this week, with
field observations beginning tomorrow. CHS Hedging will be reporting from the
tour via Twitter at @hedgeit and @hedgeit_jhof
The thing
that our area will want to watch is what type of protein North Dakota will have;
not sure if they will have any estimates and really it is probably going to be
determined over the next 30 days. Right
now it looks like ND doesn’t have much stress.
So when I guy that has high protein winter wheat or high pro new crop
spring wheat asks me if he should bring it in and sell it or take it to his
bins and store it my response is typically.
“Probably store it and hope ND doesn’t have any pro; but also realize
that your flat price risk probably comes from corn and soybeans as I don’t
think we have 8.00 wheat if we happen to have 3.50-4.00 corn.” I just don’t see that happening.
So the
bottom line for wheat and protein is that yes it might make sense to gamble and
store some hoping to get paid another 10-50 cents or more for your
protein. But realize that by trying to
gain 50 cents for your protein you might be risking a buck or more in flat
price. It doesn’t do any good to store
wheat and get paid 50 cents more for protein if you take a buck less in the
base price.
I don’t
mean to say that wheat’s going down either; more so I think one needs to realize
where the risk lies. Wheat in my opinion
is close to fair value and maybe even fundamentally undervalued. But I also don’t think that wheat can rally
by itself. It needs corn and beans to be
at the very least somewhat stable in price.
As for
the price of corn or beans I think we are entering unknown territory. I believe that the corn crop ends up someplace
between 13.5-14.5 billion bushels; based on current weather forecasts. If that is the case I really struggle to try
and determine what they funds might do and what is fair value. I look at crude oil and think well maybe corn
right here is more than fair; heck maybe corn is cheap.
I look at
China’s demand and think that maybe all of the grains are cheap at these
levels. But then I look at possible
record production coming off of a year that we had to curb demand and I wonder
how can prices do anything other than see pressure.
The
bottom line for corn and the rest of the crops the likely follow at least a
little bit is we are dealing with a situation that we have never had before in
history. We don’t know how short the
funds might go; the only thing we can do is look for other clues and practice risk
management that helps one stay profitable and comfortable. By nature it shouldn’t be easy.
One thing
that they say we need to make tops or bottoms is everyone leaning on one side
of the market. I don’t know that clue
has been met; yes we have the funds record short; but have the farmers sold
enough new crop corn for us to put in a bottom?
Have producers really made any new crop fear sales to speak of???
I hope
that over the next few months and years we can find some sort of medium level
that helps us build demand yet is profitable for producers. I am fearfully that we keep doing what we have
always done. That is overdo market
moves; both to the upside and to the downside.
Please
give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.
Thanks
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Closing Grain Market Comments
Markets closed mixed today in rather choppy price action.
September corn was up 3 cents, December corn was down a
penny, KC wheat was off a penny, MPLS wheat was down 5, CBOT wheat was down 5, November
soybeans were down 18, the US dollar was near unchanged with the cash index at
82.76, crude was up 1.50 at 108 a barrel, and the DOW closed at a new all time
high up 78 points.
Weather and the funds, maybe a little old crop corn and
soybean fundamental story was and has been what the markets have been about. Today the talk for weather was a little
normal or cool weather for parts of the corn belt in the deferred forecasts. Nearly 100 here today has some local guys I talk
to a little concerned as we could really use a drink.
Overall I think weather is getting view by the trade as
negative to prices; hence we have been under pressure over the past few
weeks. The weather market for corn is
getting closer to being over; weather will start being more of a focus for the
soybean market as we move forward.
When I say weather for the corn market being over; I should
probably say it differently. The
forecasts out today go out towards the end of the month; which is when most of
the corn will be pollinating if not sooner.
Now if the present forecasts change and we add some heat and moisture
that is forecasted doesn’t hit we easily could rally from weather. Just as it sits right now with present
forecasts and good conditions in the eastern corn belt the odds of a bullish
weather card seem to be falling by the wayside as each day goes by. More and more are starting to feel like the
bean market will be taking the lead.
Looking at the charts and the wedges/triangles on some of the bean
charts I tend to agree.
Don’t get me wrong I still think weather is important for
corn; but I think the market is in the process of taking some of the risk of
11-12 billion bushel production out of the price. So over the next couple weeks look for beans
to start to take a little bigger lead.
The other thing to keep in mind for corn and the bean market is the
demand side. A month from now most will
have a solid number for corn and bean production. It might not be final but the number should
at least have something behind it.
Presently the numbers are just thrown out of thin air via the USDA.
Once the market feels like it at least has a clue of
production we will shift over to a demand market; or should shift over to a
demand market. If production does come
in as high as the USDA presently has or higher look for some pressure to come
on the market until the market proves it has demand like the USDA has
forecasted.
I am not going to argue if demand is stated to light or too
heavy; but I do feel very strongly that the funds and players in our market
will put the burden of proof on the side of “show me the demand”. They should simply based on history.
First off however we need to find out what our supply
is. I know most producers don’t want to
think that it might go up. But if have
many of you asked yourself the question “is this corn crop only 33 bushels more
than last year?” I guess from where I sit
I would think it is bigger; but maybe that is a case of backyardagains???
News out today was light but we did have export shipments
out this a.m. and they were solid for wheat and corn; while poor for
beans. But overall not new news; as the
big numbers are from the reported sales last week to China.
Egypt did buy some wheat today; 300 tmt; but none of it was
US wheat; not a surprise but also not a headline that is good for US wheat
demand.
Old crop situation for corn and beans is still super tight;
but also very volatile. Some places have
big inverses while others have some carries in their bids. I would caution that when we see harvest down
south that we will slow or shut down one of the outlets that some of the corn
is going to. Right now that market is
making the other markets really pay for corn.
Bottom line for old crop corn basis is sky looks like the limit for now;
but one day and maybe one day soon before we know it things will fall to new
crop values. Huge reward still out
there; but also a huge risk.
Watch Sunday nights forecasts and see if they give our
markets a leg up or continue the pressure.
Also we really need that headline for the funds to want to cover shorts
or simply get long.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Hedge Strategies ahead of USDA Report 6-27-2013
Another hurry up and wait day for our markets as we await
the USDA report out tomorrow.
When everything was said and done we had July corn up 3,
Sept corn down 2, December corn down 6, KC wheat down 4, MPLS wheat was down 12
on the July, MPLS September was unchanged, CBOT wheat was off 3 cents, July
soybeans were 14 higher, Nov beans down 1, US dollar about unchanged, gold down
29 bucks, crude up 1.25, and the DOW up 114 points.
Very wild day for the spreads today ahead of the
report. At one time MPLS July was up
12-13 cents only to close down 12 ½. Most
of the bids have long been moved to the September contract; but the price
action today on spreads was probably just a small preview of what the spreads
will do in terms of volatility as the USDA report comes out. It really seemed like a lot of bullish bets
have been placed the past few days which opens up the door to a potential buy
the rumor sell the fact.
Going into these type of potentially volatile reports a guy
wants to make sure that they are comfortable in their marketing plan. For some that might mean doing nothing; but
for others it might mean making a few catch up sales or getting some protection
in place.
Here are some various strategies that one might use. Just remember that no strategy is right for
everyone and for some doing nothing isn’t wrong either.
When you go into these reports you can look at thousands of
different strategies; but remember if you are buying options right before a major
report you are paying an inflated priced because usually implied volatility has
risen heading into the reports. So sometimes
you can buy an option right before a USDA report; get the direction right and
maybe even have the market move as much as expected only to see that option
value not move nearly as much as one might have hoped for. A lot of unknowns get answered in the reports
and as soon as those unknowns are answered some of the premium (volatility
premium) comes out in a hurry.
Bottom line before placing any of these trades make sure
that you understand them and are comfortable with the risks and rewards with
the various trades. Keep in mind that
futures and options are risky and not for everyone.
The below are hedge trades for those that feel they want
some sort of protection. Opposite type
of trades could be made for bullish bets; but producers probably should be
looking at hedging or protecting unsold inventory.
Hedge 1 – Simple purchase of a put. What strike and what month are the real
question. First off what are you trying
to protect? Old crop or new crop? Which one has the most risk? How much money do you want to spend and what
is the potential reward? For me if I am
going to buy a put to protect me from a train wreck from the USDA report I want
to be an August serial month; which follows the September board. Now if I am looking to protect from lower
prices via the weather continuing to be ideal that wouldn’t be the month I would
use.
But for just protecting the report I like using August
because I feel the most risk from the report is to the July contract followed
by the September and then December contract.
Bottom line is I want to distinguish where my risk is at
that I am trying to protect. In this
case I am just looking at report protection; nothing more.
So I personally go with the August option.
So hedge 1 is simply buying a 5.50 August Corn put for 12
cents. Why do I choose a 5.50 strike
instead of at the money 5.70 for 21 cents.
Here is where I look at the what if’s.
So if I want to protect a negative report; I want to protect a big
negative report. So I compare spending
12 cents for a 5.50 or 21 for a 5.70 and say what happens to these if the market
goes up; while that is easy they are both worthless in a hurry. If the market
goes sideways then the 5.70 out performs the 5.50. But what happens if a week from now September
corn is at 5.00 or 4.50. Not that I think
that will happen; but you have to ask yourself if the old crop story somehow
gets shut down via this report is weather going to help it find support???? Right now it doesn’t look like it.
So if we go to 5.00 on the September board would I be better
if I owned 5.70 puts or 5.50; while the answer is 5.70’s unless you spent an
equal amount of money on each of the strikes and in that case you would be much
better owning more of the 5.50 versus.
As example say you want to protect 100,000 bushels do you spend the 21
cents on 20 contracts or 21,000 buying the 5.70 strikes? Or for your $21,000 do you buy 35 contracts
at $600 bucks a piece or 12 cents a bushel?
If we go to 5.00 your 20 contracts of 5.70 would be worth $70,000; but
your 35 contracts of 5.50 puts would be worth $87,500. If we go to 4.50 the 20 contracts of 5.70
puts would be worth $120,000 but the 35 contracts of 5.50 would be worth $175,000.
So there is hedge 1; buying a put; as mentioned for above
reasons I like protecting where I think the most risk is from the report. Not where the most risk is from yields or
production (which won’t be updated in this report). Thus I think I would choose the 5.50 August
strikes.
Hedge 2 is buying the put and selling a call to pay for the put. Here is where things get interesting and more
complicated as via selling a call you open up the door for margin calls. So you could look at selling a 6.00 August
call; but personally I don’t think I would sell a call option against old crop
corn. So I would look to sell probably a
December corn call. What strike? There it depends on comfort and what your
bias is for the report. The biggest
home run and bank for your buck would be to sell an at the money corn call
(5.40) and use that to buy say 3 to 1 of the 5.50 August puts.
Take the same example above; if we have 5.00 corn and you did
this on 100,000 bushels; your put portion would be worth $150,000; and worth $300,000
at 4.50. But in exchange for this you
might have margin calls and you have capped your upside on 100,000 bushels of December
corn at 5.40. Plus even though the
trade is a free trade it does cost money to put it on. You get paid for the calls that you sold but
you have to margin them up and will continue to margin them up as the market
rises. But you also have to pay for the
5.50 August puts that you buy.
Hedge 3 would be similar to hedge 2; but instead of selling
the at the money corn call one sells the 6.50 Dec corn call and buys the 5.50
August put. Net cost being 1-2 cents;
but here again net cost; not net cash out of pocket. This gives you some protection 1 to 1 ratio
but doesn’t lock you into a corn HTA type of sale until we get to 6.50; know
don’t get me wrong you would have margin calls well before Dec corn got to 6.50;
but unless December corn is above 6.50 on November 22 you won’t have a short
futures position at some point.
Hedge 4 adds another twist and that is buying a put and then
selling one call and buying a higher strike call. For simple purposes we will say buy the
August 5.50 put sell the December 6.00 call and buy the December 6.50
call. Net cost is about a penny or
two. What this trade does is it caps the
margin requirement and gives you as a producer re-ownership above 6.50. So you have 1-1 protection below 5.50 basis
the September contract until 7-26 when the August put expires; as for the new
crop if December corn is below 6.00 you have nothing; if it is between
6.00-6.50 you have something similar to an HTA at 6.00 and if we go over 6.50
you start gaining again. Not a bad move;
a known cost.
Hedge 5 would be selling a call and use that money to buy a
put spread. In this example sell maybe a
December 6.00 call; buy a December 5.30 put and sell a December 4.70 put. Not sure that I like this trade; but many
would prefer to buy and sell options in the same strike month and not have the
calendar exposure. This would be more of
a new crop play. Cost on this trade
above is about 7 cents a bushel; it gives you a ceiling of 6.00 on your corn
while giving you 60 cents protection; for a cost of 7 bucks. The bad thing about this trade is the fact
that the 5.30-4.70 put spread won’t be at 100% value until December corn is
well below 4.70 or until options expire.
Via selling the put you have capped your protection and you won’t realize
near as much profit as hoped for should we fall; at least not nearly as fast as
one things because of how time value works.
Hedge 6 would be a calendar trade. As example some might look to buy an August
5.70 put and sell a September 5.30 put; net cost of about 8-9 cents. Easy to manage trade in many cases and the
thing it does is it lets gamma work for you.
The August 5.70 put will trade like a futures contract much sooner than a
5.30 September put. It is a good trade
that if managed properly can easily win more than 50% of the time; the problem
with it you just are never going to hit a home run.
Hedge 7 would be a different type of calendar trade; one
that the stock market guru’s use a little more.
Sell the 5.30 August put and buy the 5.30 September put; in this example
you are just trying to get longer protection and the most the trade can cost
you is what you spend on it. Or about 6
cents in this example. Hedge 6 has a
short option that will be out there after your long option expires; this is the
opposite. The difference is in this
trade you are buying and selling the same strike; in the above you have a
higher strike bought and a lower longer dated strike sold.
As you can see I think I could go on and on with various
trades. I am not saying that anyone
needs to have any trades on; after all they cost money and some of these ratio
strategies cost plenty in commission.
But you want to be comfortable in your marketing plan. Keep in mind that no one move is right for
everyone; as all of you have different risks and goals.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks
Monday, June 24, 2013
Closing Market Comments - crop progress update 6-24-2013
Markets closed mixed to mainly weaker today.
July corn was down 8 ½ cents a bushel, September corn was
down 13 cents a bushel, December corn was off 10 cents a bushel, KC wheat was
down 17-21, MPLS wheat was down 6, CBOT wheat was down 17-19, July soybeans up
19, November soybeans unchanged, the US dollar up a little with the cash index
at 82.45, the DOW was off 140 points, crude was up 1.20 a barrel, and gold was
down 11 bucks an ounce.
Overall an ugly day; there were times when MPLS wheat and
soybeans showed some promises. But overall
spreads where very volatile. KC spreads
seen the nearby KC July wheat contract lose a dime to the 2014 July wheat
contract. From what I heard was a little
harvest pressure and some houses in KC getting lower protein. Something that they might sit on and try to
drive spreads wider.
Old crop new crop corn spreads also had a very choppy volatile
day. Some of the bids for old crop corn
have rolled to the September contract; while others remain against the
July. Bottom line is that spread has
been choppy and likely stays choppy.
Producer movement for grains has really slowed so you would think that
the spreads firm up. But that wasn’t the
case for all of the grains today; as mentioned above in reference to KC wheat.
Wheat basis also felt a little heavy; plenty moving lately on
basis contracts and my contacts indicated that the Gulf HRW basis traded 7-25
cents less than it did last week.
Perhaps another reason that KC wheat spreads moved wider. The domestic markets don’t seem much weaker
but I have locally seen a lot of basis contracts done and some mills have
stepped back. Plus it really only seems
like 1 or two mills have supported basis at these type of levels. Most others are waiting for new crop; not
they will get much out of this area.
This a.m. we had export shipments out. Good for soybeans and poor for wheat and
corn.
This afternoon we had a crop progress update. Not much for surprises the big thing is that
the crop condition trend has improve for corn, spring wheat, and soybeans. Both corn and soybeans improved 1 % in the
G/E while spring wheat improved 2%.
If that trend continues we really have to be concerned about
the seasonal pressure that we have seen over the last 20-30 years. I have a couple seasonal charts in my office
for November soybeans and December corn and they look like we go off of a cliff
right around the start of July. (These
seasonal charts are older ones and that trend hasn’t been the case the last
couple of years)
As each of the last couple of years we have made our highs
around the August crop report; but last year at this time our crops had started
to feel the stress of the drought. As it
stands out the numbers have improved the past couple of weeks. The corn crop is now back to its 5 year
average; with an uptrend.
Here is CHS Hedging recap
Right now the market seems to be focused on a couple
things. Wheat harvest updates (today
seen as bearish via surprisingly good yields noted in central KS), the outside
markets (bearish the past few days with economic concerns…..particularly in
China), weather (overall has to be a little bearish….at least on the headlines
as rain makes grain), and position squaring ahead of the report on Friday
(unknown). Bottom line is the headlines
today mainly said sell.
Now as we get further into the wheat harvest could we see
more disappointments start to hit the headlines? Yes of course; but just by nature producers
are conservative when it comes to estimating the yields; now perhaps the market
isn’t. Could we see the outside markets
stabilize and maybe see our markets focus on the Chinese demand which has been
very strong for wheat as of late; with many talking about a smoking gun in
regards to China and wheat. Yes we
could.
We could also debate weather; as I know plenty of
agronomists that are more than concerned in some areas.
Could Friday’s report show way less acres then
expected? Could our quarterly stocks be
less than expected? After all basis and
the spreads have said for some time that old crop corn and beans are tighter
then tight. Sure could happen that way.
The other way these things could play out is similar to
today’s price action and headline. Our
crop could get bigger, the KC wheat harvest might not be as bad as we once
thought, we might have under estimated the old crop stocks, and we could
continue to see weak outside markets or an overall economic meltdown.
Bottom line is I don’t think many if any are going to be
smart enough to take all of the hundreds and maybe thousands of variables and
determine exactly how these markets will shake out. If they did why would they tell anyone? Not to say that someone won’t get it right as
someone will. But for risk management
purposes and grain marketing purposes our job it to treat the above as unknowns
and make good business decisions that fit our individual goals in a way that at
the end of the day we can say we are comfortable with the decisions that we
make.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Closing Market Comments 5-16-2013
Markets closed mixed today in choppy trade.
Old crop corn was off 9 cents, new crop corn was down 8
cents a bushel, July soybeans were up 15 cents a bushel, new crop soybeans were
up 8 cents a bushel, KC wheat was down 8 cents a bushel, MPLS wheat was unchanged,
CBOT wheat was down 6 cents a bushel, stock market closed down with the DOW off
42 points, the US dollar finished near unchanged after being down earlier
(presently at 4:30 the cash index is at 83.74), gold off about 12 bucks, and
crude was up 90 cents.
Fairly poor day for the grains; one that seen some technical
damage done to some of the charts also.
First off we had KC and CBOT wheat make new lows for the month and we
have December corn within a penny of last week’s lows and Dec corn also made its
lowest close since April 26th.
On the positive side MPLS wheat did hold its support area and July
soybeans had their highest close since March.
The bigger technical negative might be the US dollar price action; it
had a pause today; but overall it has been on super strong and is flirting with
last week’s highs. A break of last year’s
highs will open the door to a technical test of the 2010 highs. Keep in mind that when the US dollar made its
highs in 2010 nearby corn futures got down to about 3.25.
We did have exports out this a.m. and they were good for
soybean meal. But otherwise fairly
quiet; at least they were not bullish enough to get the funds interested in
buying. Wheat numbers were very poor and
have some in the industry questioning if we can hit the USDA projection.
I did see some rumors about a possible port strike in Brazil
and that seemed to give some life to the old crop soybean market; the actual
exports of old crop beans were very poor.
Seen another couple comments on twitter in regards to
wheat. One mentioned a much smaller
Russian wheat crop estimate then what the USDA presently has; which would be
positive; but the other was some talk that Russia was looking to sell some more
old crop wheat. They haven’t been in the
headlines under cutting our wheat for some time; but that talk has resurfaced.
One other thing leading to some pressure in our markets is
the idea that we could potentially see a record amount of corn planting this
week. I would think that would be a stretch;
but I guess we will find out Monday. The
bigger question should be will it matter to the funds or what would cause the funds
or market in general to want and have prices run up?
The wheat markets did bounce decently in the close; talk of
fund buying. If I was a fund manager I would
be nervous playing wheat form the short side simply because of the United
States crop; small crops typically get smaller; not bigger and I expect further
production reductions in the months ahead.
One of our local ethanol plants dropped their corn basis bid
by a dime or so today. Sounded like he
got a bunch of stuff bought today; plus they are simply nervous owning inventory
going into the July-September inverse.
As I have mentioned many times they can’t sell ethanol out there. This is good and bad; first off look for
basis to be very choppy and volatile.
Secondly having nothing bought when you use 4 million bushels a
month? Good risk management? I don’t think so; to me it feels like they
got so burnt last year via having ownership when basis crashed that they are
setting themselves up to get burnt the opposite direction this year? The problem with it is simply the spreads
between the nearby and deferred futures months.
I know as an elevator I can’t carry length threw the inverse.
Spring wheat firmness seemed to be coming from weather as
parts that are not planted might get slowed down. Other parts such as our area and those to the
North and West of us will welcome moisture.
But in talking to my contacts many indicate spring wheat is not
completely planted in the heart of spring wheat country in ND.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Closing Market Comments - Wheat gets smacked hard
The grain markets closed weaker across the board today; CBOT
wheat lead the pressure down 17 cents, MPLS wheat was off 8 cents, KC wheat was
down 15, old crop corn was down 2, new crop corn was off 6 cents, old crop
beans were down 2, and new crop soybeans were off 4 cents. At 2:45 outside markets have the DOW up about
55 points, crude about unchanged, gold off 34 bucks, and the US dollar
continuing its strength up 220 on the cash index at 83.815.
Bad day for markets; but not a huge technical day for most
of the markets. Some of the wheat
markets did put in new lows for the month but not much damage to the corn and
soybean charts.
This morning we had ethanol production numbers out. Friendly across the board with ethanol production
this week at 252 million gallons; up from 248 last week and thus matching the
highest level since last June. The
bigger and more bullish story on the ethanol side is the fact that ethanol
stocks are now at the lowest level since December 2010; they are down to 690
million gallons.
What makes the ethanol thing even more interesting is the
recent conversations with ethanol plants.
First off you have huge nearby margins that have lead to some in the
industry to ask if more ethanol plants will be put back into production. But when I talk to local ethanol plants some
of them mention comments that plants will be taking some possible down time in
the coming months. Some for maintenance which
is normal; but most of the talk comes from the huge inverse that the ethanol
market has.
Meaning one of the buyers today mentioned that he couldn’t
sell the ethanol for Aug-Sept; the ethanol futures have an inverse on the board. With the September ethanol futures presently
a 26 cent a gallon discount to the nearby futures. Now I don’t know many producers that will
actually sell me corn for less in August then they will for nearby delivery
because of the cost to hold the product along with the risk of holding product
in their bins with the typical heat we can see during the summer. Plus things are going to be very tight in
that slot; so the offers that I am showing to the ethanol plants are at a carry
versus the nearby offers. But most seem
to have little interest; because as mentioned above they can’t sell the ethanol
for that slot. Plus last year many got
on the wrong side of the market with the spreads.
So the question should be at what point do these ethanol
plants shut it down like some are making reference to. If they do shut it down what could happen to
ethanol stocks and ethanol price? Just
on the surface it looks like we presently only have a 2-3 week supply of
ethanol. Overall the above makes me
bullish corn basis; but with all of the components and the huge inverse on the corn
board from July to September it is tough to stay bullish basis. Maybe it means that the way this thing plays
out is for the September board to run up after the July goes off?
Bottom line is recent conversations with ethanol plants
along with the ethanol numbers leave me scratching my head and lead me to think
that the old crop corn volatility especially in the cash price has yet to see
all of the fireworks go off. I don’t
know how it will shake out but it appears we have a catch 22 situation.
The other big news out today was the NOPA crush numbers. They came in below expectations but still
show very strong demand. They came in at
120.1 million bushels; down nearly 9% from a year ago. But still year to date up 5% from last
year. If we are to only reach the USDA’s
current forecast we can only crush 433 million bushels from now to the end of
August. That would be a 22% decline; the
only other year we have seen anything similar is in 1976/77 when we seen a 25 %
year over year decline. 433 million
bushels would also be the lowest in this time period since 1996/97; bottom line
is that the market still needs to curb plenty of demand or in all likely hood
the USDA present estimate of 1.635 billion bushels for crush will be exceeded.
The one comment I seen was perhaps the trade simply couldn’t
source the soybeans. Can’t crush what
you don’t have. Now whether it is
bullish or bearish who knows?
I did see an article mention the fact that Goldman Sachs was
now bearish on the Ag’s. Now when we see
stuff in the news it is usually already old; something that happened previously. But we do need to find a way to encourage
money to flow into the grains.
Everything now days seems to be going into the stock market and who
would blame guys going with what has been a winner. Perhaps it just means a pull back in the
stock market would be good for grain prices?
Elsewhere we are still offering free delayed price on most
of the grains and we have plenty of room for most of the grains.
Part of the weakness for the wheat market today seemed to
come from thoughts that the prospects for the EU wheat improved and I did see a
comment that parts of Russia got some moisture overnight. Remember that Friday’s report showed a big
year over year increase for world wheat production up to 701 MMT versus 665 MMT
this present year. Between Argentina,
Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, and our self the United
states production is pegged to be up 13.1 % .
These countries are the major exporters in the world; and you have the
US down a little over 8 % on production; but overall the major wheat sellers in
the world with us included are pegged up 13 %.
Bottom line for wheat is everyone knows we have a train
wreck in South Dakota and many other parts of the HRW belt; but at the end of
the day the balance sheets don’t look to be greatly affected unless we find
some additional demand. Additional
demand probably comes our way if we have issues else were in the world. Today we don’t have much; but the crops
around the world are by no means already in the bin either.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Jeremey Frost
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Closing Grain Market Comments 5-14-2013
Markets closed mixed today in choppy trade despite the
rather friendly crop progress report that we had yesterday.
Old crop corn was off 3 cents, new crop corn was off a penny
a bushel, KC wheat was up ½ cent a bushel, MPLS wheat was down a penny a
bushel, CBOT wheat was up a penny a bushel, old crop soybeans closed down 4 ½ cents,
new crop soybeans were up a 4 cents, the US dollar is up 310 points at 83.586
on the cash index, the stock market made more new all time highs on the DOW
today up 124 points, crude was off
almost a buck a barrel, and gold was off about 10 bucks an ounce.
Rather choppy market action today. The May contracts went off the board without
much for fireworks; but spreads did end up at record levels or at least go off the
board at the highest levels in history.
Hopefully that means we have set a target for the July futures to
achieve; but it might take more than basis strength and a lack of producer
selling. It might take the funds or “big
money” getting interested in the grains if we want to see the July contracts
get up to the levels that the May corn and May soybean contracts went off the
board at.
The past couple of days we have had plenty of news; with the
crop report out last Friday the 10th of May and then yesterday we
had an updated crop progress report that showed us with the lowest corn
planting pace on record. I didn’t think
the report on Friday was negative; but it wasn’t enough to get the funds buying
either. It showed big world production
idea’s and big United States production ideas for the 2013/2014 crops; but everything
was very close to the pre-report trade estimates. The present balance sheets remain
historically tight and the late planting progress won’t help new crop aid in
the old crop tightness like it did last year.
I also thought the crop progress coming in at only 28% corn
planted; slow spring wheat planting, slow soybean planting, and a poor winter
wheat crop would have been supportive to our price action; but that wasn’t the
case. We didn’t mustard much of anything
today; despite the fact that some deferred forecasts are also wet for much of
the corn belt. Part of the reason is we
a planting window going on now. But the
bigger thing is the funds don’t seem to want to buy our markets because off too
much rain. Will that change at some point? Perhaps?
But when the funds see the USDA print a 2 billion bushel carryout with
production of over 14 billion bushels it is going to be hard to get them on the
bull bandwagon. Especially if they look
deeper into the balance sheet and see that to come up with a 2 billion bushel
carryout; we need to increase demand by nearly 2 billion bushels over this year’s
demand. On a percentage basis that has
been done; but never on as a raw number.
As I have mentioned many times recently the most probable
logic to increase demand is via lower prices; the USDA average farm price as
example.
Bottom line is the outlook that the funds see for present
fundamentals needs to change; at the end of the day it doesn’t matter much what
you or I think our fundamentals are or could be. It might eventually; but on a day to day
basis it’s what do the funds or “big money” think. So realize that they might not add the
premium that many in the industry feel should be warranted. And if the USDA’s latest forecast is close to
accurate; being pro-active will be the move for this year. Notice a lot of “if’s” ; but keep in mind that
doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be pro-active.
Tomorrow will bring some demand news with the weekly ethanol
numbers and the NOPA soybean crush numbers.
Otherwise we really don’t have much new news out there. We can talk about the weather and the new
crop demand projections but those are becoming old. The bottom line is weather should drive our
markets; but I don’t see it driving us up until things become a total train
wreck and even then it might be hard for wet weather to drive grain prices
up. Everyone know it takes rain to make
grain; so too much rain isn’t the best candidate for a grain price rally.
Our best candidate for future price rally might be the old
crop tightness and then after that weather issues elsewhere in the world. But keep in mind the time table of when
weather issues to happen probably isn’t ASAP……….our weather rally last year
didn’t start until the Middle of June.
The 2010 weather rally via Russia’s issues didn’t start until July.
The other slim possibility is just a reason for the funds to
get interested; keep in mind that the 2008 corn rally happened with a big
carryout; it started via the wheat market and overall good things going on in
the world economies along with talk of hedging commodities against
inflation. So that might also be
something to lend some support at some time; a black swan that says buy grains
or commodities for X reason.
The other thing that can happen is just the technical trade;
at some point things become over done and then with the funds involved we seem
to have an ability to overdue things in the opposite direction. A technically driven or emotion driven market
that decides to accelerate to the upside at some point is also a possibility;
it just probably doesn’t happen until we least expect it.
Elsewhere things rather quiet. Corn basis feels firm; but I can’t sell much
August corn to the ethanol plants as they just don’t like the huge inverse that
they have on the ethanol side of things; not to mention the corn inverse from
July to September futures. Winter wheat
basis is steady to firmer; while spring wheat basis feels a little weaker up
front; but a little more interest in the deferred slots.
Birdseed orders have been strong; but buyers are not paying
up either.
I do have buyers looking for milo if anyone has offers on
that; things there are very tight.
One thing we need to watch is the US dollar which is at the
highest level this year; another negative check mark for grain price outlook.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Closing Grain Market Comments - Day ahead of USDA Report
Our markets had a good bounce today ahead of the USDA report
out tomorrow.
Corn was up 16 on old crop, new crop corn was up a dime, KC
wheat lead the strength today up 19 cents, MPLS wheat was up 9 cents, CBOT
wheat was up 18 cents, old crop beans closed 18 cents a bushel higher, November
soybeans were up a nickel, the DOW was off 22 points, crude off about 40 cents
a barrel, gold of 16 bucks an ounce, and the US dollar had a very strong day
with the June up about 800 points at 82.75.
Very good day for grains; perhaps some short covering ahead
of the report that is out in the a.m.
Also seen some talk about try weather in the PNW area. Also seen talk of possible freeze in wheat
this weekend.
Other news supporting wheat was a confirmed strip rust case
for some wheat in Nebraska. Also
hearing that some Black Sea areas are seeing production slip from earlier
estimates and that Australia is very dry needing moisture as they seed winter
wheat.
Tomorrow the USDA will have a wheat production number out;
one has to question how accurate it will be just looking out our back yard plus
the fact that much of the frost damage down south might not show up until the
combines roll.
Old crop could see some potential strong fireworks with the
strong basis we have had and firm spreads.
But the new crop outlook and expectations are not that good. The major risk we have tomorrow should be (I say
should be because it is the USDA and they have a mind and logic of their own)new
crop corn and bean balance sheet and the world situation. How important will the United States
production be? Well it will depend on
what our competitors have. Some advisors
out there believe the world is and will be swimming in grain. The risk is that they are right or that the
USDA says they are right. Plus we all
know exactly what the USDA did the past couple of years on corn yields to start
off the first couple months. Will they
do that again tomorrow?
We did have export sales out this a.m. and I would call that
a non-event; nothing too bearish or bullish.
I am not going to go over any more info on the USDA report
that will be out tomorrow bottom line for the report is we have some risk. It all comes down to what logic the USDA
comes up with and if it is something that the trade believe or that “big money”
believes. Report days tend to be trend
changing days; not sure if it will follow that up tomorrow or not; plus many of
the charts are in no man’s land. Not
really at support or resistance.
Basis continues to feel firm for the grains all around with
the exception being spring wheat; which has been sloppy on the spot floor as of
late. Some blame it on the weather which
has hurt the sales that usually go with grilling out and baseball games
etc. But there is also a tremendous amount
of old crop spring wheat and it feels like we are adding some spring wheat
acres locally because of the failed winter wheat.
The one thing that isn’t happening is ethanol plants are not
paying up for huge amounts of coverage for August/September. The local ones are bidding it at a major
discount to par nearby values. They
simply can’t sell ethanol out there and make it work. When I try to sell corn for those slots they
ask my opinion of the July/September futures spread; many just got it handed to
them last year in that slot. Bottom line
is many plants in South Dakota have very little coverage on; which means they
will either have to pay up; or if they have to pay up too much they might shut
the doors. It is hard seeing them going
with the shut the door option as strong as demand and profit margins have been
as late but that was the comment I got from one ethanol buyer today.
The birdseed market has been quiet; good orders but overall
demand still seems to be soft or at least buyers are playing a wait and see
game. They need to buy plenty of product
but realize that there is a huge amount of sunflowers in the bin. Plus they
realize we are possibly increasing the acres a little. The one thing many are forgetting is the lack
of subsoil moisture that our areas that are huge sunflower growing areas. Some of the guys I talk to think planting
sunflowers with as dry as it is are a mistake because we don’t have the
subsoil. I am not an agronomist so no
real comment on that. I know flowers
worked really good last year despite it being very dry; but this year they won’t
have that subsoil moisture to pull from unless things change.
The latest 6-10 day forecast do have above normal moisture
for much of the corn belt; if we are still lagging behind planting those
forecasts will keep adding support to our market. But once things get in the ground moisture
isn’t going to take us higher.
Technically the December corn contract did manage a key
reversal today; closing above yesterday’s highs while taking out yesterday’s
lows. Positive sign; let’s just hope tomorrow’s
report does make today’s trade look like a bull trap. Lets hope we can follow it up with some
strength.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Closing Comments - Twitter wheat tour info 4-30-2013
Markets closed mixed in a choppy somewhat volatile session
as we continue to trade weather.
July corn closed down a dime a bushel, new crop December
corn was off 3 cents, KC wheat was up 14, MPLS wheat was up 3, CBOT wheat was
up 14-15, July soybeans were off a dime, November soybeans were down 6 cents,
the US dollar is under pressure off about 400 points with the cash index at
81.73, crude is off about a buck and a half, and gold was up about 9 bucks an
ounce.
Very choppy day; at one time in the night session corn was
up about a dime and with old crop closing off a dime we had a good twenty cent
range. New crop had about a 15 cent
trading range for corn. The wheat market
had even more volatility; at one time early in the session KC wheat was off
about a dime as the early reports from the crop tour where decent. Then around 9:30-10:00 we had got to about
break even and within another hour or so we were up about 20 cents giving us a
33 cent trading range from 8:30 to noon.
Part of the wheat strength might have came from more wheat
tour results and even some of the information coming out of our area. That being the prospects for wheat look very
bad; lots of insurance agents out and indicating that early next week some
stuff will be adjusted to 0-5 bushels.
But I think the bigger story was one of the updated forecast models
showing for some more freeze weather
later this week. A cold snap that could
go all the way down south into parts of Texas.
I think that is really what got our market excited.
In the last 5-10 mins wheat did have about a 10 cent or so
trading range so the volatility seemed to last the whole session. With the crop tour still going on for the
next few days look for that volatility to stay.
But one thing that we and the market seem to be keep in mind is the fact
that we don’t have a great way to really evaluate the wheat given how early
some of it is. One of the tweets on
twitter today indicated that only about 1-2% of the wheat was heading out on
this tour; versus 70 % or so last year and about 20% normally. So how good of a job will this tour do? Will it be measuring potential? Overstate it?
Understate it? Or will it really
come down to what happens with mother nature in the next few days/weeks ahead? Obviously a frost later this week could
really smoke the wheat crop hard and that won’t be accounted for in this crop
tour.
Overall the reports have been decent to good in the tour;
but I don’t know that they are any better than expectations for those areas
either. The next few days should see
more of the poor wheat getting looked at and those reports are likely to be
more friendly. But once again the
weather forecasts will probably trump this news. A freeze right now could mean huge damage; it
might make more of our wheat non-milling plus who know how much quantity could
be shaved off this already hurt crop?
Tomorrow we will have ethanol info out; market is looking
for continued improved production because of the improved margins.
The other thing in weather is the system that is suppose to
hit much of the corn belt in the next couple of days. Sounds like 1-5 inches of moisture for many
parts of Iowa. One report I heard was of
a foot of snow potentially in Iowa later this week. I did see some of the 6-10 day and later
forecasts show some improvement and that might have helped ease the corn rally
that we had going last night and earlier in the session. Bottom line is these forecasts will continue
to change a couple times a day; how important they will be should depend on how
much moisture the eastern corn belt gets hit with later this week. If the event is a bust while then some of the
deferred forecasts won’t be quiet as important; while if it is as wet or wetter
then forecasted the other deferred forecasts will become more important.
I did see on twitter today a few different pictures of some
field work happening in parts of Iowa; NE, ND, SD; so some progress is
happening. But it seems like overall the
progress is maybe happening in the outlying states; not all of the I states
where our crop is really determined.
Here are some more tweets with info and various links for
the wheat crop tour. These are using
hash tag #wheattour13 and @hedgeit
Field 15. South of Atwood, KS. Visual 18. Calculated 23. pic.twitter.com/X2SRhwjlR9
CHS
Hedging Inc.@hedgeit
Field 14. Rawlins county. pic.twitter.com/ULEqjJp1dr
Correction to field 14. Calculated yield 24 not 17.
Field 14. Rawlins county, KS. Visual yield estimate 24.
Calculated 17. Dry area. pic.twitter.com/X93gHOA353
Field 11. A few miles West of phillipsburg. 30 days from
heading. Visual 38. pic.twitter.com/giOexMUxNE
Field 12. West of Norton, KS. Yield 48-46. Rain will make it
or break it. Wheat on corn. pic.twitter.com/BD4WjqwDNx
Field 13. Decatur county, KS. Calculated yield 38. Visual
yield 42. Plants 6-8" tall. Had a faint hay smell from freeze damage.
Field 10. Phillipsburg, KS. Freeze damage to tillers. Looks
dry. Moisture about 2" down; not sure how much. Yield 38. pic.twitter.com/AMllO5RP4e
Field 9. By Athol, KS. Yield between 48-52. Freeze damage
evident. Ten inch rows. 45 heads per foot. pic.twitter.com/Za1aLE9I5h
Field 8. By Lebanon, KS. Visual yield 42. Calculated yield
51. About 25 days until it heads out. pic.twitter.com/935TXyJhCw
Field 7. A few miles outside of Mankato, KS. Estimating 48
bu yield. Wheat on wheat. pic.twitter.com/9yp7udsaqi
Field 6. Border of Republic and Jewell counties off hwy 36.
Wheat after beans. 47 bu. pic.twitter.com/UQVtBByHAM
Field 5. KSU Research Plot, Belleville, KS. More freeze
damage but still cosmetic. No disease so far. 74 bu est. pic.twitter.com/1m8eyPQ3pr
Field 3. Cloud county, KS. Along hwy 24. Wheat on wheat.
Seeing some freeze damage. This field worse than first two. pic.twitter.com/Z4hXMpLm5s
Field 4. South of Concordia, KS. Getting drier. Est. 51 bu. pic.twitter.com/0vZOQ8JI3g
CHS Hedging Financial Markets & Reports http://createsend.com/t/r-C1DFB24BE08D25322540EF23F30FEDED
…
Field 2. West of Clay Center, KS. 7.5 inch rows. Visually 54
bu yield. 64 heads per foot. pic.twitter.com/m8eQZjoWQP
Field 1. Approx 5 miles west of Riley, KS. Will head out
about May15-20. Should make 60bu pretty easily. pic.twitter.com/QQ7TVAOo1G
Nebraska Wheat@NebraskaWheat42m
#wheattour13 Conclusion: #Yields will take a hit and moisture is badly needed. #pleaserain
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat52m
West of Cope, CO, 26.5 bu/acre estimate. #wheattour13
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc53m
Side by side fields near Zurich, late planting, wanting to grow, but needs help, 25 & 23 bpa @ldreiling #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/1EeqM971lO
View photo
Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat54m
Wrong pic of Cope irrigated - here is the 53.8 field. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20CAf
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat55m
Wheat Yields Forecast at 45 Bushels in 12 Kansas Fields http://bloom.bg/ZjB300 via @BloombergNews #wheattour13
View summary
Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat55m
12 mile so. of Cope, CO, on CRP, 15.3 bu/acre estimate http://ow.ly/i/20CwW #wheattour13
View photo
Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat57m
1 mile south of Cope, CO, irrigated, est. 53.8 bu/acre. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20CsN
View photo
KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 With rain,, this field near Oberlin has 21 bpa potential. Super dry soils. Bright side: 0 freeze damage! pic.twitter.com/b3EOk2Wpah
View photo
Nebraska Wheat@NebraskaWheat1h
Finished scouting fields in KS & NE. Seeing spotty stands, freeze damage, and later than normal development. #wheattour13
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup1h
@mattleising Perhaps next year you could join #WheatTour13
View conversation
Matt Leising@mattleising1h
I'm strangely hooked on these wheat tour pics, very cool, and calming RT @CMEGroup Field in Sheridan #WheatTour13 http://stks.co/bSGm
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John Everitt@wildjohn19631h
#wheattour13 Saying the wheat crop will make if it rains Is like saying the Jets would have won the Super Bowl if they had Kept Tim Tebow
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 Just east of Nicodemus. Soil is very dry. Freeze damage to wheat; 33 bu/acre yield estimate. pic.twitter.com/2DQxFbXBY4
Retweeted by Ken Smithmier
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup1h
Field in Sheridan County using average 15.9 bpa, using lower standard deviation 13.1 $ZW_F #WheatTour13 http://stks.co/bSGm
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 In a wheat field Near Salina, a #photobomb with Tim Unruh of the @salinajournal pic.twitter.com/BAldRGnsoG
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 North of Norton, there is no soil moisture to speak of. With rain, this crop will make 31 bu/acre. pic.twitter.com/xtRxEATosS
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Hays Daily News@NorthWestKansas1h
MT @KansasWheat: #wheattour13 Near Stockton, 46.7 bu/acre, if it gets rain. freeze/ice damage, 16" soil moisture. pic.twitter.com/p52YjTBt68
Followed by ADM CropRiskServices and 1 other
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup1h
The 56th Annual Hard Winter Wheat Tour coordinated by the Wheat Quality Council opened April 29 http://stks.co/cSI6 $ZW_F #wheattour13
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat1h
#wheattour13 Near Stockton, 46.7 bu/acre, if this crop gets rain. freeze/ice damage to leaves. 16" of soil moisture. pic.twitter.com/oN7tKyv8mg
View photo
US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc1h
Nursery plots at KSU experiment station in Hays were planted late, so look great, 53 bpa #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/1b2xIgomQ4
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN2h
This Decatur Co. field est yield 21.5 bpa. I say, only if it rains and keeps raining. Poorest field yet #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/4xB0O5XzlA
View photo
US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc2h
Poor, short, weedy, dry stand near Liebanthal, 19 bpa @ldreiling #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/VNf3XaU1ZU
Retweeted by Mary Kennedy
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN2h
Our first field in Norton Co. looked like it had just emerged. Est. Yield of 29.9 bpa, but it really needs a drink. #wheattour13
Retweeted by Edouard Tallent and 1 other
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John Everitt@wildjohn19632h
#wheattour13 is it cold enough on KS for you boys to still be drinking schnapps being a late spring n'all
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc2h
Important to keep in mind that tweets are estimates from individual fields along one route on this tour, avgs will come tonight #wheattour13
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Farm Futures@FarmFutures2h
#wheat prices up ZWK3 721.75 +12; ZWN3 731 +14.5; KEK3 798 +17.25; KEN3 789.5 +13.75 #farm #markets #wheattour13 #agchat
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup2h
Dry in Rooks Cty. Estimated 47.5 bpa, but seems high http://stks.co/gTX8 #WheatTour13 $ZW_F
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc3h
Dry, dry field north of Hoisington, very very little subsoil moisture, 28 bpa @ldreiling #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/ZyZpoYmfvG
View photo
Russell French@frenchrw3h
@jerodmcdaniel I think #wheattour13 should be done on Harleys. Would be more fun
In reply to Jerod McDaniel
View conversation
CMEGroup@CMEGroup3h
Fields in Russell and Osbourne Counties dry. Spotty, short, late planted avg. at 33.8 bpa #WheatTour13 $ZW_F
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN3h
Definitely dry in Phillips County. Formula pegs yield at 44.2 bpa but that's definitely a stretch without rain. #wheattour13
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Arlan Suderman@ArlanFF1013h
RT @KatieMDTN: Just sampled two side by side fields. The thicker, earlier planted had an est. 59 bpa yield, other 30 bpa. #wheattour13
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Tom Polansek@tpolansek4h
Wheat futures jump 3 pct on damage concerns as Kansas crop tour begins http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/30/markets-grains-idUSL3N0DH1TX20130430 … #wheattour13
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc4h
Cracks in the field near Hoisington, how deep will they be in Colby? #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/99hTXCx1m0
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc4h
Baby E is sad, but @ldreiling says to cheer up, with rain this wheat could make 43 bpa #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/lmuiPYyGEy
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat4h
#wheattour13 - Phillips Co. wheat needs a rain badly. 40 bu/acre today, but no soil moisture. freeze damage on leaves pic.twitter.com/HiPBFdCz1y
Retweeted by Ken Smithmier
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat4h
3 miles w of Cope, Colo, 26.5 bu/acre yield. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20uXg
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Beeson Inc@Beesoninc4h
Cloud/Mitchell high 50s BPA. Limited freeze damage. Expecting conditions to dry out as we head west. #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/r1cdZyzsYq
Followed by Matt Leonard and 1 other
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat4h
RT @peteloewen: Newsflash* #Wheattour13 expected to last til next Thurs as participants spend more time tweeting than checking fields.
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup5h
Here's a closer view from Ottawa County. Average 45.2 bpa #WheatTour13 http://ow.ly/i/20uae
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
I love how everyone knows the #wheattour13 numbers are overstated due to growth stage, yet it like let's just run with it anyway...
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
5 mi east Anton Colo 21.1 bu/acre estimate yield #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20u47
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
Everyone on the #wheattour13 should download @mikemcclureband on iTunes, great music!
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup5h
HEre we are in Ottawa County on Highway 18 and 106 intersection. Average 45.2 bpa #WheatTour13 http://ow.ly/i/20tYL
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
7 miles w of Anton, est yield 39.0 bu/acre. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20tW3
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat5h
#Wheattour13: Smith Co., at KAWG dir. Theron Haresnape's farm. Dry soils, 52 bu/acre potential, plntd in failed corn. pic.twitter.com/qtqOZyR9xv
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
Really going to need to do a tick check later -- y drivers found at least 4 crawling on him so far. Yikes! #wheattour13
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
Just sampled two side by side fields. The thicker, earlier planted had an est. 59 bpa yield, other 30 bpa. #wheattour13
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Mike ODea@WheatTraderFCSt5h
@jerodmcdaniel old times crop was judged by the ability to see or not see beer cans thrown in field #scientific #wheattour13
Retweeted by Jerod McDaniel
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
Wheat in Oklahoma Panhandle going to get 5th hard freeze of 26 in two days... Wheat might make 1bpa with a drink... #wheattour13
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
If I ran a tour group it would go something like this...
Wheat's dead. Where is the bar, every little Kansas town has a bar?
#wheattour13
Retweeted by Darren Shaw and 1 other
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc5h
Wheat trying to recover near Frederick, but stems are cracking, 38 bpa with a drink #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/7wn1Cx6Or6
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Jerod McDaniel@jerodmcdaniel5h
Follow me for all the #wheattour13 updates!
Not really, I just wanted to throw that out there.
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Aurelien Perier@AurelGrains5h
all right, #liffe close tomorrow so see you Thursday with much informations about #wheattour13 !! #farm
Followed by Paul Toseland and 7 others
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Kyle Abbott@KyleTAbbott5h
Freeze hurt. Need rain! RT @KatieMDTN: Near Smith Center got our lowest est. of the day, 32.5 bpa. Short plants in 10" rows. #wheattour13
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Hays Daily News@NorthWestKansas5h
RT @KatieMDTN: Near Smith Center got our lowest estimate of the day, 32.5 bpa. Short plants in 10 inch rows. #wheattour13
Followed by ADM CropRiskServices and 1 other
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Scott Haley@CSUwheatguy5h
@danmaltby1 I wouldn't bet on it. I know the CSU #wheatbreeding program won't be done by end of July. We are very late in CO. #wheattour13
In reply to dan maltby
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
Near Smith Center got our lowest estimate of the day, 32.5 bpa. Short plants in 10 inch rows. #wheattour13
Retweeted by Ken Smithmier
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
#wheattour13 20 miles west of Last Chance CO, 28.8 bu/acre estimate. @CSUwheatguy http://ow.ly/i/20srg
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dan maltby@danmaltby15h
@CSUwheatguy hah; trick #wheattour13 question; answer is NONE.
nice try. ALL of that #wheat will be harvested in July...
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
Last chance photo #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20sar
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat5h
3 miles east of Last Chance, est 30.3 bu/acre #Wheattour13
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN7h
All the fields today are WAY behind in development, but our yields are solid, 61.8 bpa in Washington Co and 49.5 in Republic CO #wheattour13
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ken morrison@morrisonmkts7h
Reply to @KatieMDTN given the lateness, what's the level of confidence in the tour estimates compared to say a 'normal' year ?
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN6h
@morrisonmkts I'd say the formula we use will overestimate yields this year. More tillers out there than normal bc of how late it is.
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ken morrison@morrisonmkts5h
@KatieMDTN it might be useful to compare the 2007 KS Tour estimate to final yields
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
@morrisonmkts good idea. In 2007 tour estimate was 392 mb with a 41 bpa avg yield. USDA final was 283 mb. #wheattour13
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ken morrison@morrisonmkts5h
@KatieMDTN without looking,I'd bet that was the biggest % miss ever for the KS Tour... keep in mind % headed in 2007 was 7% vs. 1% now
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Brock Associates@TheBrockReport5h
@KatieMDTN @morrisonmkts Wow--that's a big gap!
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc5h
@KatieMDTN @morrisonmkts 2007 had significantly more subsoil moisture for the crop to draw from. @ldreiling
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Greg Akagi@GregAkagi5h
@morrisonmkts @KatieMDTN I was on 97 tour w/est. in the low 200 million's. May had cooler temps and rains and #KS had 506 million bu crop.
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ken morrison@morrisonmkts5h
@GregAkagi @KatieMDTN Interesting but both the '07 and '97 variances reinforce my view to take this year's Tour ests w/ a grain of salt
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat5h
#wheattour13 - Near Salina at Justin Knopf's farm, 65 bu/acre. Freeze damage hard to est. 36" of soil moisture. pic.twitter.com/ih3XkNawuP
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Scott Haley@CSUwheatguy5h
@danmaltby1 Yup. Or in other words, how many of the tillers we're counting will have grain in them at harvest in September? #wheattour13
In reply to dan maltby
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN5h
Field in Jewell Co. will be toast if it gets hot and dry. Itty bitty wheat w/o a flag leaf yet. Est yield at 43.8 bpa #wheattour13
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc6h
Head from field near Marquette, short on moisture but could make it, 42 bpa #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/z2hapLgG5h
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Scott Haley@CSUwheatguy6h
I'm hoping my genomics based yield predictions are more robust than these estimates. #wheattour13 #wheatbreeding @danmaltby1
Followed by Clif Mendel and 14 others
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN6h
The stand in that last field was thick! Got an 81 bpa estimate is Republic Co. Probably high, but the best field we've seen yet #wheattour13
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Jeremey Frost @FrostJeremey6h
@coloradowheat is that better or worse then expecations for that area? #wheattour13
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN29 Apr
Getting ready to kick off #wheattour13! Here's a map of the routes we'll be driving in Kansas the next few days http://tinyurl.com/cz6xg7k
Retweeted 15 times
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat6h
#wheattour13 - near Chapman, a wheat stand thick enough to hold up a hat! pic.twitter.com/Qvi1TlXhnw
Retweeted by Joe Hofmeyer and 1 other
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Colorado Wheat@coloradowheat6h
1 mile NE of Byers Co est yield 43.7 bu/acre. #wheattour13 http://ow.ly/i/20pEp
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc6h
#wheattour13 mixed opinions on field near Lindsborg with @ldreiling , settled on 42 bpa but a good drink would help #wheattour13
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Kansas Dept of Ag@KansasDeptofAg7h
How has the cold spring impacted the #Kansas wheat crop? Follow the #wheattour13 with @uswheatassoc @KansasWheat @KatieMDTN
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc7h
@razrbx @ldreiling heads are green and looking ok, but some are in rough shape #wheattour13
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup7h
Follow #wheattour13 and tweet your questions @kansaswheat @uswheatassoc @KatieMDTN for their live commentary this week $ZW_F
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CMEGroup@CMEGroup7h
Here's a map of the 2013 Kansas Wheat Tour #wheattour13 (HT @KatieMDTN) http://ow.ly/kzgwj
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc7h
Thick wheat bouncing back from some early freeze damage, 77 bpa but likely not good quality #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/UAxYv5YhXQ
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat7h
#wheattour13...12 miles west of Washington, 52 bu/acre, 26-inch moisture profile. No-till system. pic.twitter.com/adn5vb4NXG
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc7h
Near Solomon, mushy heads illustrating more freeze damage, lucky to make 34 bpa #wheattour13 @ldreiling pic.twitter.com/LlNQtYxchk
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Bryce Anderson@BAndersonDTN7h
Where wx's been best. RT @KansasWheat 1st rpt #wheattour13-Leonardville Hwy 24, 48 bu/A, 30" soil moisture, no freeze pic.twitter.com/GkCjIMDavS
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc7h
@ldreiling and Julia east of Navarre seeing freeze damage with roughening of stems, 37 bpa may be high #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/1m0nLkTt5x
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Katie Micik@KatieMDTN8h
@IntFarmNet we just started scouting this morning. Follow #wheattour13 for all the tweets!
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc8h
@ldreiling says this field has been loved near Woodbine, 44 bpa estimated #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/YiwOWpmw43
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US Wheat Associates@uswheatassoc8h
Really pretty wheat in NE Morris county, 41 bpa #wheattour13 pic.twitter.com/vk9x8GTD8J
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KansasWheat@KansasWheat8h
1st report from #wheattour13 - near Leonardville on Hwy 24, 48 bu/acre, 30 inches of soil moisture, no freeze dmg. pic.twitter.com/zZGyu9ZvMM
Jeremey Frost
Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
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