opening comments before usda report 6-28-13

Well not much to say this a.m.

It’s just a hurry up and wait for the USDA report out at 11 a.m. central time.  Overnight markets were choppy and fairly close to home; July corn ended unchanged, December corn was down 2, KC was up 1, MPLS was up 2, CBOT wheat was up 2, July beans up 3, and November soybeans were up 2.  Outside markets have gold down another 20 bucks an ounce under 1200 now at 1192 an ounce, crude is up a quarter a barrel, the US dollar is about unchanged with the Cash index at 82.88, and the stock market futures are pointing towards a lower opening with the DOW futures off 52 points.

It’s really just about the USDA report today.  Now if it is a non-event the market will continue to focus on weather.  Most are saying weather is ideal; but I am not even going to go down the weather road debate.  I will leave that up to the agronomists and traders.

The one thing we have to worry a little bit about this report is living up to the expectations.  Most everyone is expecting a bullish old crop number for corn and soybean stocks.  Will it be bullish enough?  Most everyone is also looking for a decline in acres; will they decline enough?

Here is recap of the estimates.

Tables from the Van Trump report
USDA June Acreage Worksheet 

	June #	March #	2012 Final	Ave. Trade Guess	Range Estimates
Corn	???	97.282	97.155	95.313	94.200 - 96.900
Soybeans	???	77.126	77.198	77.933	77.100 - 79.240
All Wheat	???	56.440	55.736	55.902	55.200 - 56.400
Spring W	???	12.701	12.289	12.132	11.700 - 12.700
Durum W	???	1.751	2.123	1.699	1.550 - 1.800

US June Grain Stocks Worksheet

	June #	March 1	June 1, 2012	Ave. Trade Guess	Range Estimates
Corn	???	5.399	3.148	2.845	2.725 - 2.952
Soybeans	???	0.999	0.667	0.442	0.413 - 0.500
Wheat	???	1.234	0.743	0.745	0.718 - 0.781

Jeremey Frost

Grain Merchandiser

Midwest Cooperatives