Markets are having a small bounce as of 8:50 this a.m.
Corn is up 2, beans are leading the way up 15, KC wheat is
up 2, MPLS wheat is up 1, and CBOT wheat is unchanged. Outside markets are supportive with the DOW
making new all time highs this morning up about 100 points at 14,227, crude is
up 50 cents, and the US dollar is a little lower.
I did see an announcement that the CME grain market trading
hours will change on April 7th.
The Open outcry or pit and the Globex or electronic will start trading
weekdays at 8:30 a.m. central time and close at 1:15 p.m. central time. The overnight Globex or electronic will open
at 7:00 PM central time and remain open until 7:45 a.m. central time the next
morning. There is no pause for the USDA
reports; but perhaps the CME is opening the doors for the USDA to move release
times to 8:00 a.m.?????
We do have a USDA report out on Friday with estimates at 646
for a corn carryout. Presently we are at
632. Market is basically looking for a
decrease in exports/ethanol; but really not a major change is expected.
For soybeans the market is thinking we could see an increase
in crush and or exports as the average estimate is 122 million bushel carryout
versus the present 125 million bushel carryout.
But really not a major change.
For wheat the trade is looking for a small increase via lack
of exports as the estimate is pegged at 702 million bushels versus the present
691 million bushels.
Overall not much for changes expected in our carryout’s. Just looking at the numbers I would say that
we have a small bearish risk; but most likely the USDA waits until the March
stocks report and thus the April S & D before we have any major changes if
we do.
The bigger thing is likely to be South America production. Market is looking for a Brazilian soybean
crop to decrease slightly and for the Argentina bean crop to slightly decrease. Same thing for corn crops. Now here is another potential risk; will big
crops get bigger? The ranges are rather
wide so unless we have a major surprise it might not be another major market
mover and we have seen some strength happen lately in beans despite the fact that
we have record crops coming. I don’t
know how long logistics can provide support as eventually the South America
crop will provide supply.
We did have some state updates on crop conditions yesterday and
we seen some improvements. KS up 1% on
the G/E, OK improved 16%, and TX was unchanged.
We did sell more beans to Unknown and to China this a.m.;
330k tones of old crop sold to unknown and 345 k tones of new crop sales.
Basis remains strong; but more from a lack of supply then
super strong demand. Some of the local
ethanol plants are full through April.
The coverage needed is for later on; but with the inverses in the board;
not many plants have a lot strong interest either.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
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