Outside Markets: Dollar Index
down 0.097 at 81.069; NYMEX-WTI up $1.11 at $88.02; Brent Crude up $1.21 at
$110.16; Heating Oil up $0.0408 at $3.0276; Gold up $7.70 at $1722.00; Copper
up $0.0405 at $3.4980; All major currencies are firmer; All the softs except
cotton are better, led by Coffee up 1.18%; S&P’s are up 8.75 at 1368.50,
Dow futures are up 67.00 at 12,637.00 and Treasuries are being offered this
morning.
Global equity markets are firm this
morning, led by European markets which are up over 1.0%. The main themes
seem to be tied to constructive comments surrounding the fiscal cliff talks in
Washington. One of the main sticking points is still the tax rates on the
top earners, although few comments have made mention of anything tied to
entitlement programs, the real source of the growing deficit. Also
supportive overnight was a Spanish official saying Spain may need less
than €40 billion for its banks from the ESM. Today’s economic news will
include existing homes sales (4.75 million/0%). Notable earnings this
morning will include Tyson Foods which analysts are estimating at
$0.44/share. Krispy Kreme is due this afternoon and seen at $0.08/share.
Some
very limited precip over the weekend in the eastern parts of the south.
The 5-day forecasted precip map is devoid of moisture in the Midwest, but the
PNW is expected to see very good rains in ID/CA/OR/WA and W-MT to the tune of
0.50” to as much as 8.6” in OR. Not much change in the NOAA extended maps
yesterday with below normal precip seen for all areas south of I-70 while MT/ND
and parts of SD could see some limited moisture. Temps are expected to
remain above normal the next 15-days. The weather continues to look
pretty good for the S. American growing regions. Some rains are seen in
Argentina and S. Brazil, but will not be heavy enough to resurrect issues
with excess moisture seen in Sept and Oct. Yet will also insure that these
areas do not slip into too dry of a pattern. The tropical rainfall in N.
Brazilian growing regions will continue to feed crops moisture there.
Ag’s are enjoying a nice bounce
overnight which was present from 7:00pm as bargain hunters and technical
traders claiming “oversold” seem to be finding their way to our space. A
solid export sales report Friday in the complex continues to offer underlying
support, and farmer movement of new beans has been notably absent. Chatter
from the country makes it sound like resellers in the East have basis length
from harvest, but the same doesn’t seem to be true in the West as elevators
hurry to get piles picked up and shipped. There was no weekend tender by
Egypt, much to the chagrin of wheat bulls. This isn’t to say Egypt won’t
buy US-SRW when they come back, it’s just each week that flips over is one week
off the window the US will be the only suitable supplier.
There was some tender business
overnight, however, as South Korea’s Nonghyup group reaches for as much as
110,000MT of soymeal for April delivery. Egypt’s FIHC is also seeking
30,000MT of sunflower oil and 30,000MT of soybean oil. A wire said
African wheat buyers have turned to India as of late, and it’s odd few have
made mention of just how much wheat has been sold out of state reserves.
Recent prices were said to be around $348/MT C&F. Other articles
talked of Brazil’s shipping lineup being around 1.5MMT long, and Asian buyers
turning increasingly toward the US. CIF bids going home Friday were
+92Z, up 20c w/w. Winter wheat conditions in Ukraine are being rated
as “fairly good” by the USDA-FAS. Plantings are right at year ago
levels. The wheat harvest in Western Australia is being estimated at 35%
complete by one of the regions’ largest grain handlers at around 3.2MMT.
Farmers in Victoria are said to be “happy with the start of harvest.”
Canola and barley are said to be faring the best.
Open interest changes Friday
included wheat down 2,540 contracts, corn down 1,710, soybeans down 1,750,
soymeal up 4,090, soyoil down 5,510. There are 272,000 contracts of corn
remaining in the December with FND 10-days away. Overnight, Malaysian Palm
Oil was up 30 ringgit to 2,459 on an expected pick up in export demand.
Chinese markets were firmer with beans up 5.25c, meal up $4.20, soy oil up 25c,
corn up 4.50c, palm up 26c, and wheat down 0.75c. For reasons
undisclosed, China’s government said it will suspend soybean auctions from
state reserves this week. Paris Milling Wheat is up 0.47%, Rapeseed
up 0.30%, Corn up 0.30%, UK feed wheat up 0.57% and Canola is up 0.73%.
Things look as though we’ll be
firmer today, and prices are probably due for a bounce considering the losses
sustained last week. Demand has shown no signs of slowing down on
soybeans, and combined March 1 stocks of South American and United States
soybeans will still be the tightest on record. Domestic demand for corn
remains fairly strong, and analysts remain optimistic on export demand moving
forward. Wheat needs to pick up some business or we fall relative to corn
to find feed demand. Short week with low volume.
Trade as of 7:10
Corn up 5-6
Soy up 10-15
Wheat 3-4
No comments:
Post a Comment