Markets Comments 1-24-11

Markets where firmer this a.m. behind a firmer overnight session; lead by wheat.

In the overnight session corn was up 2 cents or so, beans where up 7-9 cents, KC wheat was up 9, MPLS wheat was up 7, and CBOT wheat was up 11.  As of 9:00 outside markets are mixed with the US Dollar softer as the March is down 155 at 78.215, equity markets are firmer with the DOW up 26 points, crude is off about 1.30 a barrel, and European wheat is firmer making new highs for the up movement up about 1.5%.

Demand related items continue to help the grains out; China purchased beans, and wheat export business heads main of the commentary highlights.  Overall recent price move has felt good on the demand side.  Some do feel like they need coverage still; while some sectors in various commodities are quickly becoming covered.

We ended up with a rather volatile choppy session today; as corn ended down a couple cents, beans where down 8-12 cents, KC wheat was up 8, MPLS was up 13, and CBOT wheat was up 11.  Bean oil was down but crush sunflowers where up a dollar a cwt; that has to be a sign of demand doesn’t it?  Equity markets where firmer with the DOW up 109 points, crude continued it losing streak, and European wheat closed up about 2/3 of a percent.

The markets seen rather big swings threw-out the day; one time the markets looked like they could fall apart and at other times it looked like they wanted to continue to work their way higher.  Don’t look for that volatile to go away over night.

I would point out that I do see a little concern when I look at corn’s action on the charts.  Nothing that says a high is in; but it is concerning that we traded above the high close yet where not able to close there.  We also failed for the second day in a row to close above the Key Reversal high; which could leave the door open to that bearish signal still standing in many technical views.

The birdseed market remains firm; note however that the action feels like that what we get when we see a blow off top on the charts.  I.E. the top is near as once the few that need coverage get covered and we see the typically seasonal slow down along with the demand slow down from increased prices I would look for at least a correction.