Volitale Markets- Neutral Nick updated

With the volitale markets we seen lately Mr Neutral Nick had to update his positon and add some more trades. 

He sold 12 of the 11.00 July Wheat calls, Sold 10 of the July 13.60 Soybean Puts, and Sold 27 of the July 8.00 Corn calls.  These all get him very close to his goal of staying 100,000 bushels delta equavilant short. 

Below is the updated

Grain Markets 1-27-2011

Markets are called mixed to better this a.m. behind an overnight session that saw wheat continue to show strength, while corn was slightly positive up 1-2 cents, and beans where are hair in the red.

We did have export sales out this a.m. and they where good for wheat and beans while very poor on corn.  Wheat came in at 32.9 million bushels which was in line with trade estimates and more then two times what we need on a per week basis to meet current USDA projections, beans came in at 28.7 million bushels, corn was very poor coming in at only 16.4 million bushels.

The markets did open up a little weaker then where the over night session left off at and as of 10:20 are showing a little extra weakness; presently corn is down about 8, CBOT wheat is off about 7, MPLS wheat is down 2, and KC wheat is off a nickel, and beans are up a couple cents.

Neutral Nick Update - Wheat Sky Rockets and now he has too much sold!!!

Neutral Nick had to adjust rather big today as the wheat prices continue to soar up.  CBOT March wheat is just a couple pennies off of the Aug 6th high; while nearly all other wheat contracts are near or at contract highs.

After today's market Mr. Neutral found his self delta equavilant of being short about 136,000 bushels; that is him over sold by about 36%; this is the type of thing that could nearly break him if we see a repeat of 2008 and he doesn't do anything to adjust.

So he decided to adjust as per his game plan; part of his idea is he doesn't have any interest paying for insurance or protection as he would rather sell it.  But given where things are he did decide that risk management still outweighs feelings and thoughts.  So he bought some March 8.70 calls; 30 of them.  But he did decide to stick to the them of adjusting primiarly via selling options; not via buying so he added a couple more trades he sold 30 of the CBOT July 11.00 calls while also selling 10 of the 8.00 July puts.  Overall he did collect today while buying the short term right to own some wheat slight above the Aug 6th highs; in theory if we do much up in a hurry his long calls should quickly see delta move closer to resembling the price aciton of simply long futures.   (To help off set his positions that are becoming closer to acting like a short hedge.)

His updates for corn was to sell an additional 10 of the 8.00 July calls; while in beans he sold 25 of the 15.00  Julycalls and 15 of the 13.00 July puts.

Overall he is very happy with where he is at other then his huge brokerage fees and the fact that one always wants more.

His wheat positions is impressive in that his positions on the books are only down about 5k total while wheat is on a big time run; yet hs has basically played that and the other markets short 100k since he entered and wheat is at it's highest level.  While beans and corn he also has plenty of non booked profits up around 60k on corn and $124,000 on beans.  With all of the posiitons he keeps adding he is feeling good that unless his banker pulls his hedge (Spec?) line of credit he will end up with a better price then his cousin Vinny Vegas who is still on the beach someplace.

Here is a copy of Neutral's positions that are open; keep in mind this doesn't include the small booked losses.

Long	# of	Option	Futures	Expiration	My Trade		Futures Price	Option Price		Position Equivalent				Profits (Losses)
or Short	Contracts	Symbol	Reference	Date	Date	Price	Last	Last	Delta	Delta (bu)	Gamma (bu)	Theta / Day	Vega	Actual
SHORT	60.00	WN1000C	WN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	49.250	901.250	61.375	(0.40)	(120,291)	(464)	$946	($6,631)	($36,375)
SHORT	25.00	WN700P	WN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	37.875	901.250	12.750	0.11	14,117	(114)	$166	($1,396)	$31,406
SHORT	10.00	WN900C	WN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	73.500	901.250	94.750	(0.55)	(27,455)	(82)	$154	($1,124)	($10,625)
SHORT	2.00	WN850C	WN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	89.125	901.250	116.625	(0.63)	(6,323)	(16)	$28	($213)	($2,750)
SHORT	2.00	WH770P	WH1	18-Feb-2011	5-Jan-2011	27.375	856.500	3.500	0.10	981	(23)	$27	($38)	$2,388
SHORT	3.00	WH730C	WH1	18-Feb-2011	7-Jan-2011	68.125	856.500	127.500	(0.93)	(13,936)	(9)	$32	($40)	($8,906)
SHORT	2.00	WN900C	WN1	24-Jun-2011	12-Jan-2011	66.625	901.250	94.750	(0.55)	(5,491)	(16)	$31	($225)	($2,813)
SHORT	20.00	WH750P	WH1	18-Feb-2011	19-Jan-2011	13.875	856.500	1.625	0.05	5,205	(146)	$163	($237)	$12,250
SHORT	12.00	WN800P	WN1	24-Jun-2011	21-Jan-2011	58.750	901.250	42.500	0.27	16,209	(88)	$147	($1,139)	$9,750
SHORT	30.00	WN1100C	WN1	24-Jun-2011	26-Jan-2011	39.250	901.250	39.250	(0.28)	(42,523)	(198)	$428	($2,923)	$0
LONG	30.00	WH870C	WH1	18-Feb-2011	26-Jan-2011	25.000	856.500	25.000	0.45	67,339	760	($1,012)	$1,275	$0
SHORT	10.00	WN800P	WN1	24-Jun-2011	26-Jan-2011	42.500	901.250	42.500	0.27	13,508	(73)	$122	($949)	$0
	206.00								(0.10)	(98,660)	(469)	$1,233	($13,642)	($5,675)
SHORT	5.00	SH1300P	SH1	18-Feb-2011	29-Dec-2010	34.500	1385.500	6.875	0.15	3,706	(66)	$109	($205)	$6,906
SHORT	40.00	SN1500C	SN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	82.500	1403.000	67.250	(0.39)	(78,863)	(287)	$674	($6,856)	$30,500
SHORT	50.00	SN1200P	SN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	42.500	1403.000	21.500	0.16	39,316	(249)	$479	($5,450)	$52,500
SHORT	30.00	SN1600C	SN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	62.000	1403.000	45.000	(0.28)	(42,687)	(181)	$470	($4,565)	$25,500
SHORT	2.00	SH1450C	SH1	18-Feb-2011	5-Jan-2011	43.500	1385.500	14.500	(0.26)	(2,624)	(35)	$67	($114)	$2,900
SHORT	4.00	SH1300C	SH1	18-Feb-2011	7-Jan-2011	93.875	1385.500	92.375	(0.85)	(16,901)	(51)	$89	($167)	$300
SHORT	15.00	SH1300P	SH1	18-Feb-2011	12-Jan-2011	13.125	1385.500	6.875	0.15	11,117	(197)	$328	($615)	$4,688
SHORT	5.00	SH1360P	SH1	18-Feb-2011	12-Jan-2011	30.500	1385.500	23.500	0.37	9,308	(107)	$182	($329)	$1,750
SHORT	2.00	SN1400P	SN1	24-Jun-2011	21-Jan-2011	88.875	1403.000	97.500	0.45	4,550	(16)	$32	($352)	($863)
SHORT	25.00	SN1500C	SN1	24-Jun-2011	26-Jan-2011	67.250	1403.000	67.250	(0.39)	(49,289)	(179)	$421	($4,285)	$0
SHORT	15.00	SN1300P	SN1	24-Jun-2011	26-Jan-2011	48.500	1403.000	48.500	0.29	22,021	(108)	$203	($2,309)	$0
	193.00								(0.10)	(100,347)	(1,476)	$3,055	($25,247)	$124,181
SHORT	6.00	CH680C	CH1	18-Feb-2011	29-Dec-2010	20.000	657.750	12.750	(0.36)	(10,772)	(206)	$134	($185)	$2,175
SHORT	55.00	CN800C	CN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	30.750	672.750	28.000	(0.29)	(79,987)	(540)	$541	($4,048)	$7,563
SHORT	30.00	CN550P	CN1	24-Jun-2011	23-Dec-2010	37.250	672.750	15.125	0.16	24,344	(232)	$192	($1,592)	$33,188
SHORT	35.00	CH700C	CH1	18-Feb-2011	23-Dec-2010	16.500	657.750	7.750	(0.24)	(42,748)	(989)	$668	($913)	$15,313
SHORT	2.00	CH680C	CH1	18-Feb-2011	5-Jan-2011	18.500	657.750	12.750	(0.36)	(3,591)	(69)	$45	($62)	$575
SHORT	5.00	CH660C	CH1	18-Feb-2011	7-Jan-2011	15.375	657.750	20.000	(0.50)	(12,456)	(188)	$115	($164)	($1,156)
SHORT	2.00	CN500P	CN1	24-Jun-2011	7-Jan-2011	20.875	672.750	6.500	0.08	820	(10)	$8	($66)	$1,438
SHORT	22.00	CN630P	CN1	24-Jun-2011	21-Jan-2011	47.875	672.750	43.500	0.34	37,850	(245)	$218	($1,729)	$4,813
SHORT	10.00	CN800C	CN1	24-Jun-2011	26-Jan-2011	28.000	672.750	28.000	(0.29)	(14,543)	(98)	$98	($736)	$0
	167.00								(0.12)	(101,083)	(2,576)	$2,020	($9,497)	$63,906