Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Opening Grain Market Comments 5-22-13
Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a mixed overnight session.
In the overnight session old crop corn was off 2 cents, new crop corn was up 3 ½, KC wheat was up 3 cents, MPLS wheat was unchanged, CBOT wheat was up 4 cents, old crop soybeans were down 3, and new crop soybeans were up 3 ½. Outside markets have the US dollar about unchanged, crude oil is down 35 cents a gallon, gold prices are up 15 bucks an ounce, and stock futures are pointing to another firmer start. More all time new highs for the DOW?
This a.m. we will have ethanol numbers out and that should help decide our old crop direction. Pace has been good and the market is looking for that strong pace to continue based on the fact that ethanol margins have been very strong.
Technically we had an ok day for new crop corn yesterday; we made a new low for the move and managed to close positive; leaving a reversal on the charts; not a key reversal as we failed to take out the previous day’s highs but a good sign that the selling has at least paused for the time being.
No markets on Monday could keep things a little on the thin and choppy side the next couple of days. Specs might not want to push things until they see the latest weather forecasts and update on planting.
I seen a couple different comments on weather this a.m. One mentioned weather being supportive to prices via the idea that more planting delays and the last of the acres getting potentially shifted along with possible yield loss. But I also seen another wire indicating some pressure on prices because of the weather. I guess it really depends on what the eyes see.
I did see some bean basis bids all out of bed yesterday; down 40 cents or so; many rolled to the August futures. Very volatile. I don’t know that guys are covered but some bids are indicating that they are. If they are not covered then the end users could be playing with fire as a drop in flat price won’t scare out many producers to sell. It could cause some elevators to pitch their length or sell DP bushels; but to me it looks like the processors are playing a dangerous game. Perhaps the same can be said about old crop corn? Volatile basis as we go forward; I notice wide bid ask spreads and basis values with huge spreads for various slots.
The USDA did report new crop corn sold to China this a.m. as well as some sold to unknown. I think that helps show we have some value down towards these levels.
Not much else going on for our markets. We will have our weekly MWC Round Table meeting today at 3:00 in Onida. Hope some of you can make it then.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.
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