Outside Markets: Dollar Index
down 0.146 at 82.593; NYMEX-WTI up $0.45 at $92.91; Brent Crude up $0.10 at
$107.57; Heating Oil down $0.0034 at $2.8929; Livestock markets are
mixed/weaker; Gold down $6.20 at $1607.60; Copper up $0.0280 at $3.4630;
S&P’s are up 3.25 at 1542.25, Dow futures are up 33.00 at 14,381.00 and
Treasuries are firmer.
Despite the latest spate of
headlines from Europe, global financial markets actually exhibiting a fair
amount of calm and order. While the NIKKEI fell 2.35% overnight, Europe
is flat this morning and the FTSE MIB is actually up 0.35%. Bond yields
across Europe are easier this morning, and the Euro is rallying against all of
its major trading partners. The EURUSD +0.462%, EURJPY +0.266% and EURGBP
+0.299%. The latest headlines in the Cyprus Crisis is European officials
rejecting an alternative plan from the Cyprus gov to save its banking sector
and remain in the Eurozone. Cyprus needs to raise €5.8 billion to avert
crisis and secure bailout financing by Monday. Expect a weekend chocked
full of headlines heading into the Monday deadline. No economic data
today.
The last 24 hours saw precip in
AR/S-MO, and some snow fell in NE/SD with more still falling this
morning. More precip will move into towards the weekend for the
southern plains with all of KS expected to see 0.50-0.60” Sat/Sun. This
will push into MO as well where amounts will be slightly heavier. OK sees
moisture as well. This system moves into IL/IN/KY/OH by Monday with S-IL
seeing as much as 0.94”. Following Sunday’s system, the Midwest will be
quiet Monday through Friday. NOAA’s maps continue to point cold and dry
in the 6-10 with a slight moderation in the temps for the 8-14, but still
fairly dry in that period. Most of the WCB remains in some stage of
drought and could use additional moisture as opposed to getting in the field
early.
Slightly easier markets overnight as we consolidate recent
gains in both grains and the sharp rally in oilseeds yesterday afternoon.
Unfortunately, there is no chatter on the wires this morning as to the reason
behind the soybean rally yesterday. Most traders will be watching the
USDA website at 8:00am this morning to see if there were any sales reported to
Washington. The rally was back end led, but CIF traders noted as much
as 770,000 bushels of new crop beans changing hands yesterday. Between
the logistical backups in Brazil, and the inability to source Argentine
supplies until at least April (let alone their labor issues), it is possible we
did some more old crop soybean business. Corn and wheat seem to be
running into soft cash markets following a solid week of movement by farmers.
Bloomberg released several polls ahead of next week’s USDA
reports. Rather than rehash them here, I’ve included them below.
Only blatant observations would be slightly lower corn acreage estimates, slightly
higher soybean acreage and the trade clearly anticipating a bullish Mar 1
Stocks number. With an average trade estimate below 5.00bbu, the trade is
basically assuming Q2 corn feed demand didn’t slow to the level the USDA is
currently implying. Just looking at estimates, would appear 5.0-5.1bbu is
the range: above 5.1bbu is bearish and below 5.0bbu is bullish. News out
of China overnight said March soybean imports may be 4.29MMT and 4.285MMT
according to the Ministry of Commerce. China needs around 4.8MMT a month
for its crushing needs. The slower pace of imports is thought to be due
to logistical complications out SAM as opposed to slowing demand, but it’s too
early to tell. The USDA is currently estimating 12/13 soybean imports for
China at 63MMT, although the average analyst estimate according to Bloomberg
has slipped to 59MMT.
Japan bought 37,188MT of food wheat in an S-B-S tender
overnight from Canada and Australia. Articles from Russia said the price
limit for purchasing milling wheat headed for state reserves in Aug-Sept is
RU7,000/MT, or $210/MT ($5.71/bu). They are clearly banking on a very
large crop and declining global prices. The Russian winter grain losses
are being forecast at 1.3-1.6 million hectares vs. earlier estimates for 1.9 million
according to the Ag Minister. Cattle on feed report this afternoon at
2:00. Estimates look like placements at 92.8%, marketings at 92.3% and
Mar 1 on feed at 93.8%.
Overnight maps continue to look very dry for South America,
although haven’t heard whether this is an issue or not. Something to keep
track of nonetheless. Corn basis remains weak. Wheat basis is
steadying. Everyone seems to be of the opinion wheat basis should get
sloppy due to the amount of wheat left on farm. While I agree with that
in principle, it does concern me that logistics remain poor on rail, and that
everyone seems to be of the same opinion on basis. MWK/MWN is reluctant
to trade a carry.
Open interest changes yesterday included another 12,640
contracts of corn, wheat down 690, beans up 1,560, meal down 1,310, soy oil
down 4,480 contracts. Corn open interest just keeps on climbing which is
a short-term positive if the people doing the buying decide to defend their
position. Chinese markets were firmer with beans up 14c, meal down $0.40,
soy oil down 35c, corn up 1.25c, palm down 15c and wheat up 0.25c.
Malaysian Palm Oil was up 47 ringgit at 2,493 (1.51%). Paris Milling
Wheat is up 0.10%, Rapeseed is up 0.16%, corn down 0.22%, UK feed wheat is
unchanged and Canola is unchanged.
Call things a little bit weaker to start off with but keep
an eye on the wires at 8:00am this morning or Monday morning. Odds are
good we did some export business to China per the rally yesterday.
Otherwise, the low volume chop ahead of the March 28th reports could
be setting in.
U.S. Soy Acres May Rise to Record, Survey Shows; Grain
Area Up
2013-03-21 21:49:33.99 GMT
By Jeff Wilson
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S.
farmers will plant the most
soybean acres ever, and corn seeding may rise to the highest
since 1936, according to a survey of 32 analysts by
Bloomberg
News. Wheat acreage may rise to the highest in four
years.
The U.S. Department of
Agriculture is scheduled to release
its estimates, based on a national survey of growers, on
March
28 at noon in Washington.
Below are the estimates of how
much land farmers intend to
plant, in millions of acres.
*T
Crop
Production USDA
Estimates
February
Average
Range 2013
2012
Corn
97.339 96.5-98.5
96.5 97.155
Soybeans
78.351 77.0-80.0
77.5 77.198
All
Wheat 56.32
55.6-57.3 56.0 55.736
Spring
Wheat 12.39
11.91-12.8 n/a
12.289
Durum
Wheat 2.13
2.0-2.3
n/a 2.123
Firm
Estimates
All Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat
============================================================
ABN Amro
Clearing 98.000 78.000
56.20 12.40 2.00
A/C Trading
Inc. 97.500
78.500 n/a n/a n/a
ADM Investor Services 97.000
79.500 56.00 12.40 2.00
Advanced Market Concepts 98.500 77.400
56.50 12.80 2.20
AgriVisor
LLC
97.000 78.500 57.00 12.80 2.20
Allendale
Inc. 96.956
78.342 56.26 12.06 2.18
Alpari
98.000 78.200 n/a n/a n/a
Citigroup Global Markets 96.800 77.600 56.10
12.32 2.19
Commodity Information 97.000
78.200 56.00 n/a n/a
EFG
Group
97.500 78.500 56.50 n/a n/a
Farm
Direction
97.500 78.200 56.20 n/a n/a
Farm
Futures
97.430 79.090 56.12 11.91 2.06
Fintec Group
Inc. 98.000 77.000
56.00 n/a n/a
Grain Service Corp.
98.200 78.000 56.50 n/a n/a
Global Cmd Analytics 96.900
78.100 57.10 n/a n/a
Hightower
Report 97.500
78.500 56.50 12.50 2.10
Jefferies Bache
96.760 78.500 56.85 12.42 2.24
Kropf & Love
97.500 78.500
56.50 12.70 2.00
Linn
Group
96.500 77.500 56.00 n/a n/a
McKeany
Flavell 97.800
77.900 55.60 n/a n/a
Mcquarie
Bank
96.600 79.700 57.30 n/a n/a
Newedge USA
LLC 97.500
78.800 56.80 12.80 2.30
Northstar Commodity
98.200 78.100 55.80 12.35 2.15
PIRA Energy
Group 97.000 78.000
56.10 n/a n/a
Prime Ag Consultants 98.000
80.000 n/a n/a n/a
Rice Dairy
LLC 97.600
78.500 56.06 12.20 2.05
R.J.
O’Brien
97.000 78.500 56.30 12.20 2.10
Risk
Management 96.800
78.000 n/a n/a n/a
Stewart-Peterson
96.500 78.500 56.20 12.40 2.10
U.S. Commodities Inc. 97.500
77.500 n/a n/a n/a
Vantage
RM
97.000 78.500 56.00 n/a n/a
Water Street Solutions 96.800
79.100 56.14 12.05 2.18
U.S. Corn, Soybean Inventories Fell on March 1, Survey
Shows
2013-03-21 21:17:43.537 GMT
By Jeff Wilson
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S.
corn inventories on March 1
probably fell to the lowest in 15 years for the date,
while
soybean stockpiles dropped to the lowest since 2004,
according
to a survey of as many as 31 analysts by Bloomberg News.
Wheat
inventories probably fell to a four-year low.
The U.S. Department of
Agriculture is scheduled to update
its reserve estimates with a quarterly report at noon on
March
28 in Washington. Figures below are in billions of
bushels.
*T
U.S. March 1 Inventory
Forecasts
Average
Range
Previous USDA
March 1, 2012 Dec. 1, 2012
Corn
4.995 4.743-5.248
6.023 8.030
Soybeans
0.948 0.900-1.059
1.374 1.966
Wheat
1.165 1.010-1.249
1.199 1.660
*T
*T
Analyst
Estimates
Corn Soybeans Wheat
===========================================================
ABN
Amro
5.080 0.925 1.055
A/C Trading
Inc.
4.950 0.940 n/a
ADM Investor Services
5.037 0.940 1.193
Advanced Market Concepts
4.783 1.015 1.125
AgriVisor
LLC
4.990 0.955 1.180
Allendale
Inc.
5.071 0.912 1.107
Citigroup Global Markets
4.960 0.984 1.211
Commodity Information
4.975 0.948 1.185
CHS Hedging
Inc.
4.997 0.934 1.191
Doane
Advisory
5.005 0.945 1.185
EFG
Group
5.000 0.960 1.190
Farm
Direction
5.050 1.000 1.170
Farm
Futures
5.248 0.972 1.125
Fintec Group
Inc.
4.743 0.910 1.210
Grain Service
Corp. 5.056
0.928 1.166
Hightower
Report
5.025 0.955 1.200
Jefferies
Bache
4.941 0.936 1.238
Kropf &
Love
4.985 0.930 1.197
Linn
Group
5.020 0.912 n/a
Macquarie
Bank
5.103 0.913 1.207
McKeany
Flavell
5.020 0.900 1.010
Newedge USA
LLC
4.948 0.921 1.205
Northstar
Commodity 4.885
0.911 1.170
Prime Ag
Consulting 5.100
0.940 1.200
Rice Dairy
LLC
4.969 0.925 1.249
R.J.
O’Brien
5.030 0.928 1.179
Risk
Management
5.223 1.059 1.010
Stewart-Peterson
5.020 0.950 1.160
U.S. Commodities Inc.
4.952 0.970 n/a
Vantage
RM
4.750 1.050 1.150
Water Street Solution
4.916 0.926 1.162
Tregg Cronin
Market Analyst
800-328-6530
651-355-6538
651-355-3723 fax
Market Analyst
800-328-6530
651-355-6538
651-355-3723 fax
CHS Hedging, Inc.
The Right Decisions for the Right Reasons
The Right Decisions for the Right Reasons
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