Thursday, March 14, 2013

Morning Market Thoughts 3-14-2013 - Great Wheat Export sales

Markets are showing a little bounce this a.m. behind great wheat export sales.

At 9:15 we have soybeans still in the red down 2, but corn is up 2, KC wheat is up 5, MPLS wheat is up 3, and CBOT wheat is up 6 cents a bushel.  Outside markets have the stock market bouncing with the DOW up 60 points, crude up about a quarter, gold off 3 bucks an ounce, and the US dollar back to about unchanged which is a couple hundred points off of it’s highs.

We did have ethanol production numbers out yesterday and they were mixed.  Ethanol production was off slightly which was a little disappointing because margins have improve a little bit for that industry.  Stocks however dropped and that was supportive.

We did have export sales out this a.m. and old crop wheat was at 32.6 million bushels which is well above the 12.2 we need on a per week basis to hit present projections.  We also had good new crop sales.

Corn was not anything special coming in at 11.1 which is slightly below the 12.6 million we need on a per week basis.  But in line with estimates.

The soy products were light; but soybeans had good sales at 24.2 million bushels; while we only need about 4.6 per week to hit present USDA projections.  The soybean number isn’t off the charts; but it is also a pace that if continued would really tighten things up.

Corn basis is softer; I can’t seem to find much nearby homes.  Yet outlook for basis remains good for later slots.

We continue to hear of lots of wheat going into feed down south.  Yesterday I heard of 12-13 shuttles; some out of the delivery houses.

Wheat basis is supported a little bit from the strong exports; but it is hard not to be wanting to sell basis at these levels.  Especially if the board does decide to bounce.  We just have too much wheat.  Some of the nearby markets have went from firm to no bid; as rail roads have had small improvements and some mills are really plugged.  But we are also nearing spring work and that typically takes away a little supply and gives a little support to basis.

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