Export sales on wheat today came in at a strong 32.6mbu, up from 22.8mbu last week and above the 12.2mbu needed weekly to hit the USDA’s export projection. Shipments were also very strong at 28.9mbu, above the level needed. Shipments will be the key moving forward. Export sales commitments are now down only 2% below last year while the USDA is calling for a 2.3% decline, so about as close as it gets. HRW led sales for the first time in a long time at 14.7mbu, a little over double the level needed. Aside from durum, every class of wheat hit the level needed. Sales of corn came in at 11.1mbu vs. -1.9mbu last week and the 12.6mbu needed weekly so very close to the level needed. Soybean sales were also a supportive surprise at 24.2mbu vs. 8.8mbu last week and the 4.6mbu needed weekly. This is likely the last strong sales week we’ll see unless China comes scrambling back for more boats, although this doesn’t seem likely. Stories circulating yesterday suggested China has close to 5MMT worth of beans at their ports to unload. Still, it also isn’t very probable China takes to canceling US beans anytime soon given the logistical problems in Brazil. More rumors today suggest the “cancelations” of Brazilian beans were actually just rolling sales down to Argentina which makes sense.
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