Monday, November 28, 2011

Grain Markets Comments 11-28-11 - Strong Black Friday Weekend leads to strength in Equities and spill over into commodities

Grain Markets are called firmer this morning behind strong outside markets.

In the overnight session corn was up 12, beans where up 14, KC wheat was up 14, MPLS wheat was up 9, and CBOT wheat was up 10.  At 9:15 outside markets are very firm with the DOW up over 300 points behind a very good Black Friday Weekend and some optimism in Europe, crude is up about 2.50 a barrel, and the US dollar is getting smacked with the cash index down 754 at 78.929.

The big thing this a.m. is the outside markets as there is not much for grain news out there.  We have extremely over sold markets that are and have been due for a bounce and today it looks like we should get one; at least to start off with.

Basis is still on the firm side; but with last week being a short week there seemed to be slightly more sellers then buyers.  The strength or weakness will probably be determined by movement from producer and freight; but things should be a little thin to start off the week after the long holiday weekend.

The one thing that I have noticed that has changed is the amount in the bull and bear camp.  It seems like most every advisory service that I listen to, watch, or read has moved into the bear camp.  I hope that is showing some fear selling as that could give us a chance to bounce out of this or find at least find a level where the selling stops.

Longer term I see both the bullish and bearish things that are out there which makes decisions tough.  First off the world has plenty of grain and we are not seeing much in the terms of exports plus we have very shaky outside markets.  On the friendly side of things we do need to get plenty of acre’s in most our grains next year as the US balance sheets are on the tight side and the world isn’t exactly getting smaller.  I do have to wonder what could happen to our prices should we get tons of acres next year along with good yields.  I have seen some balance sheet projects that have a corn carryout over 2 billion bushels.  Bottom line there will continue to be upside potential but also huge downside risk when marketing. 

If you need help with a marketing plan please give us a call.

Don’t forget that the Ag Horizon’s will have some decent meetings that cover risk management.  Mark Gold with Top Third will be there and he is one of the advisory services that I try to listen to on a daily basis.  Also this a.m. I received an update from Ed Usset’s blog; showing his updated 2012 marketing plans.  Make sure to check it out

Ed Usset along with Kevin Van Trump will be presenting at a grain marketing meeting that we are sponsoring in early February.


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