Nothing good left on the charts today; but trend remains up. Today's action just should help remind us that the markets can do a 360 with little notice.
The USDA did have thier baseline projections; which showed corn acres at 92 million and that did help pressure the corn market.
Wether today is the start of a trend change or just another little break before moving higher remains to be seen; but it should be hard to get bearish until we see our fundamentals change. We do have some demand that should be softening but it really hasn;t shown it yet. We have a chance to increase supply via more acres and better production but we also have a chance that weather decases supply.
With the market movements our mock marketing character Neutral Nick had to once again adjust his position.
He sold 6 of the 10.00 July Wheat calls, 5 of the 8.50 July Wheat puts.
For beans he sold 8 of the 15.00 July soybean calls.
For corn he purchased 19 of the 7.00 March Corn calls and sold 5 of the May 7.00 puts.
Overall Nick is doing well; struggling a little bit on his wheat; but his hedge account is showing profits of about 300,000 and what if projections of over 1.2 million if prices land plus or minus about 75 cents from the current levels when the options expire.
Below is his present positions.
| Long | # of | Option | Futures | Expiration | My Trade | Futures Price | Option Price | Position Equivalent | Profits (Losses) | ||
| or Short | Contracts | Symbol | Reference | Date | Date | Price | Last | Last | Delta | Delta (bu) | Actual |
| SHORT | 60.00 | WN1000C | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 49.250 | 931.000 | 63.125 | (0.43) | (128,699) | ($41,625) |
| SHORT | 25.00 | WN700P | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 37.875 | 931.000 | 6.500 | 0.07 | 8,699 | $39,219 |
| SHORT | 10.00 | WN900C | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 73.500 | 931.000 | 100.625 | (0.60) | (29,885) | ($13,563) |
| SHORT | 2.00 | WN850C | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 89.125 | 931.000 | 126.375 | (0.69) | (6,896) | ($3,725) |
| SHORT | 2.00 | WH770P | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 5-Jan-2011 | 27.375 | 872.000 | 0.125 | 0.01 | 81 | $2,725 |
| SHORT | 3.00 | WH730C | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 7-Jan-2011 | 68.125 | 872.000 | 142.125 | (0.94) | (14,053) | ($11,100) |
| SHORT | 2.00 | WN900C | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 12-Jan-2011 | 66.625 | 931.000 | 100.625 | (0.60) | (5,977) | ($3,400) |
| SHORT | 20.00 | WH750P | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 19-Jan-2011 | 13.875 | 872.000 | 0.125 | 0.01 | 695 | $13,750 |
| SHORT | 12.00 | WN800P | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 21-Jan-2011 | 58.750 | 931.000 | 27.000 | 0.21 | 12,557 | $19,050 |
| SHORT | 30.00 | WN1100C | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 26-Jan-2011 | 39.250 | 931.000 | 38.875 | (0.30) | (44,264) | $563 |
| LONG | 30.00 | WH870C | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 26-Jan-2011 | 25.000 | 872.000 | 12.500 | 0.53 | 80,104 | ($18,750) |
| SHORT | 10.00 | WN800P | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 26-Jan-2011 | 42.500 | 931.000 | 27.000 | 0.21 | 10,464 | $7,750 |
| SHORT | 12.00 | WN1100C | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 28-Jan-2011 | 31.675 | 931.000 | 38.875 | (0.30) | (17,706) | ($4,320) |
| LONG | 8.00 | WH870C | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 23.000 | 872.000 | 12.500 | 0.53 | 21,361 | ($4,200) |
| SHORT | 4.00 | WN850P | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 57.500 | 931.000 | 45.625 | 0.30 | 6,006 | $2,375 |
| LONG | 15.00 | WH850P | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 9.875 | 872.000 | 3.500 | (0.21) | (15,943) | ($4,781) |
| SHORT | 12.00 | WN850P | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 47.500 | 931.000 | 45.625 | 0.30 | 18,017 | $1,125 |
| LONG | 5.00 | WH880C | WH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 17.750 | 872.000 | 8.125 | 0.40 | 9,969 | ($2,406) |
| SHORT | 6.00 | WN1000C | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 14-Feb-2011 | 63.125 | 931.000 | 63.125 | (0.43) | (12,870) | $0 |
| SHORT | 5.00 | WN850P | WN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 14-Feb-2011 | 45.625 | 931.000 | 45.625 | 0.30 | 7,507 | $0 |
| 273.00 | (0.07) | (100,833) | ($21,314) | ||||||||
| SHORT | 5.00 | SH1300P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 29-Dec-2010 | 34.500 | 1402.750 | 0.250 | 0.01 | 357 | $8,563 |
| SHORT | 40.00 | SN1500C | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 82.500 | 1423.500 | 56.625 | (0.39) | (78,746) | $51,750 |
| SHORT | 50.00 | SN1200P | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 42.500 | 1423.500 | 10.500 | 0.10 | 25,461 | $80,000 |
| SHORT | 30.00 | SN1600C | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 62.000 | 1423.500 | 34.500 | (0.26) | (39,386) | $41,250 |
| SHORT | 2.00 | SH1450C | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 5-Jan-2011 | 43.500 | 1402.750 | 2.375 | (0.12) | (1,229) | $4,113 |
| SHORT | 4.00 | SH1300C | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 7-Jan-2011 | 93.875 | 1402.750 | 103.000 | (0.94) | (18,889) | ($1,825) |
| SHORT | 15.00 | SH1300P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 12-Jan-2011 | 13.125 | 1402.750 | 0.250 | 0.01 | 1,070 | $9,656 |
| SHORT | 5.00 | SH1360P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 12-Jan-2011 | 30.500 | 1402.750 | 2.125 | 0.12 | 2,916 | $7,094 |
| SHORT | 2.00 | SN1400P | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 21-Jan-2011 | 88.875 | 1423.500 | 69.750 | 0.42 | 4,219 | $1,913 |
| SHORT | 25.00 | SN1500C | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 26-Jan-2011 | 67.250 | 1423.500 | 56.625 | (0.39) | (49,216) | $13,281 |
| SHORT | 15.00 | SN1300P | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 26-Jan-2011 | 48.500 | 1423.500 | 29.500 | 0.23 | 17,586 | $14,250 |
| SHORT | 10.00 | SN1360P | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 28-Jan-2011 | 67.250 | 1423.500 | 50.375 | 0.34 | 17,198 | $8,438 |
| LONG | 20.00 | SH1460C | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 20.750 | 1402.750 | 1.625 | 0.09 | 8,725 | ($19,125) |
| SHORT | 12.00 | SK1400P | SK1 | 21-Apr-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 42.500 | 1416.000 | 44.500 | 0.43 | 25,862 | ($1,200) |
| LONG | 5.00 | SH1440P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 24.000 | 1402.750 | 40.625 | (0.83) | (20,698) | $4,156 |
| SHORT | 6.00 | SN1400P | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 63.750 | 1423.500 | 69.750 | 0.42 | 12,658 | ($1,800) |
| SHORT | 5.00 | SH1380P | SH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 4.125 | 1402.750 | 5.625 | 0.26 | 6,427 | ($375) |
| SHORT | 8.00 | SN1500C | SN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 14-Feb-2011 | 56.625 | 1423.500 | 56.625 | (0.39) | (15,749) | $0 |
| 259.00 | (0.08) | (101,432) | $220,138 | ||||||||
| SHORT | 6.00 | CH680C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 29-Dec-2010 | 20.000 | 695.750 | 18.500 | (0.78) | (23,297) | $450 |
| SHORT | 55.00 | CN800C | CN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 30.750 | 711.250 | 29.500 | (0.33) | (90,037) | $3,438 |
| SHORT | 30.00 | CN550P | CN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 37.250 | 711.250 | 5.875 | 0.08 | 12,418 | $47,063 |
| SHORT | 35.00 | CH700C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 23-Dec-2010 | 16.500 | 695.750 | 6.125 | (0.42) | (73,913) | $18,156 |
| SHORT | 2.00 | CH680C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 5-Jan-2011 | 18.500 | 695.750 | 18.500 | (0.78) | (7,766) | $0 |
| SHORT | 5.00 | CH660C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 7-Jan-2011 | 15.375 | 695.750 | 36.250 | (0.93) | (23,265) | ($5,219) |
| SHORT | 2.00 | CN500P | CN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 7-Jan-2011 | 20.875 | 711.250 | 2.250 | 0.04 | 355 | $1,863 |
| SHORT | 22.00 | CN630P | CN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 21-Jan-2011 | 47.875 | 711.250 | 22.500 | 0.24 | 26,309 | $27,913 |
| SHORT | 10.00 | CN800C | CN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 26-Jan-2011 | 28.000 | 711.250 | 29.500 | (0.33) | (16,370) | ($750) |
| SHORT | 27.00 | CN800C | CN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 28-Jan-2011 | 24.000 | 711.250 | 29.500 | (0.33) | (44,200) | ($7,425) |
| LONG | 20.00 | CH700C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 7.375 | 695.750 | 6.125 | 0.42 | 42,236 | ($1,250) |
| SHORT | 20.00 | CK650P | CK1 | 21-Apr-2011 | 2-Feb-2011 | 28.875 | 706.500 | 16.500 | 0.25 | 25,416 | $12,375 |
| LONG | 6.00 | CH660P | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 8.250 | 695.750 | 0.500 | (0.05) | (1,550) | ($2,325) |
| SHORT | 5.00 | CN630P | CN1 | 24-Jun-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 31.000 | 711.250 | 22.500 | 0.24 | 5,979 | $2,125 |
| LONG | 4.00 | CH680C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 8-Feb-2011 | 11.125 | 695.750 | 18.500 | 0.78 | 15,532 | $1,475 |
| LONG | 19.00 | CH700C | CH1 | 18-Feb-2011 | 14-Feb-2011 | 6.125 | 695.750 | 6.125 | 0.42 | 40,124 | $0 |
| SHORT | 5.00 | CK700P | CK1 | 21-Apr-2011 | 14-Feb-2011 | 36.500 | 706.500 | 36.500 | 0.44 | 11,094 | $0 |
| 273.00 | (0.07) | (100,935) | $97,888 | ||||||||
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