Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Neutral Nick Update after 40 cent break in Wheat Market on 2-15-2011

With crazy markets once again today; our grains managed a correction with wheat down 34 in KC, CBOT wheat was donw 32, MPLS was off 38, Soybeans have had 4 days in a row of double digit losses as it was down 35, old corp corn was down 5 which was a big bounce off of the lows, and new crop corn was down 16.

A cancellation of some old crop soybeans along with a technical sell off/profit taking was the big story out today.  Fundamentally I don't view much as changed in a week to justifiy some of the recent moves; but that is why the markets are the markets.

Beside the big move we seen today; we also got one day closer before March Options expire.  With this our marketing character Neutral Nick decided to try and square up some of his March positions and re-adjust back to a delta = of about 100,000 bushels sold.

So to help get himself square and stay in line with his current thoughts of always collecting net premium never paying out and staying close to 100,000 bushels sold Nick entered the following trades today.

The colum on the far right is the net dollar cost before commission; if the number is a positive that is what he had added back to his hedge ago because he sold an option; if it is an negative that is what came out of his balance because he bought or in some cases below offset and option.

As you can see overall he added more chance (and risk) to his bottom line potential if we are able to stay inside of the area that he sold above and or below.

As you will see he is setting the stages for plenty of phone calss from the bank for margin; but also to have to follow up quickly as a big move without follow could quickly hurt his position.



LONG5.00CH660CCH118-Feb-201115-Feb-201131.375  ($7,844)
LONG4.00CH680CCH118-Feb-201115-Feb-201114.750  ($2,950)
SHORT20.00CK650PCK121-Apr-201115-Feb-201120.250  $20,250
SHORT41.00CK750CCK121-Apr-201115-Feb-201124.625  $50,481
 $59,937
LONG4.00SH1300CSH118-Feb-201115-Feb-201168.875  ($13,775)
LONG5.00SH1360PSH118-Feb-201115-Feb-20118.750  ($2,187)
SHORT5.00SH1440PSH118-Feb-201115-Feb-201172.750  $18,187
SHORT20.00SK1400CSK121-Apr-201115-Feb-201144.875  $44,875
SHORT4.00SN1500CSN124-Jun-201115-Feb-201147.000  $9,400
SHORT40.00SN1600CSN124-Jun-201115-Feb-201128.250  $56,500
 $113,000
SHORT7.00WH830PWH118-Feb-201115-Feb-20116.750  $2,362
SHORT8.00WH850PWH118-Feb-201115-Feb-201117.125  $6,850
SHORT15.00WN850PWN124-Jun-201115-Feb-201156.375  $42,281
 $51,494



Below is is present position book;
the trades from today are in yellow.  Depending on where we go from here in the next couple of days he should be very close to out of March options.  He didn't offset all of them but he did offset most of them and will look to do the rest on Friday.

Long# ofOptionFuturesMy TradeFutures PriceOption PricePosition EquivalentProfits (Losses)Days to ExpirationExpiration
or ShortContractsSymbolReferenceDatePriceLastLastDeltaDelta (bu)Gamma (bu)ActualActualDate
SHORT5.00CH660CCH17-Jan-201115.375 690.500 31.375 (0.91) (22,691) (145) ($4,000)318-Feb-2011
LONG5.00CH660CCH115-Feb-201131.375 690.500 31.375 0.91  22,691  145 $0 318-Feb-2011
LONG6.00CH660PCH18-Feb-20118.250 690.500 0.875 (0.08) (2,490) 195  ($2,213)318-Feb-2011
SHORT6.00CH680CCH129-Dec-201020.000 690.500 14.750 (0.69) (20,821) (482) $1,575 318-Feb-2011
SHORT2.00CH680CCH15-Jan-201118.500 690.500 14.750 (0.69) (6,940) (161) $375 318-Feb-2011
LONG4.00CH680CCH18-Feb-201111.125 690.500 14.750 0.69  13,880  321  $725 318-Feb-2011
LONG4.00CH680CCH115-Feb-201114.750 690.500 14.750 0.69  13,880  321 $0 318-Feb-2011
SHORT35.00CH700CCH123-Dec-201016.500 690.500 4.375 (0.33) (57,528) (3,101) $21,219 318-Feb-2011
LONG20.00CH700CCH12-Feb-20117.375 690.500 4.375 0.33  32,873  1,772  ($3,000)318-Feb-2011
LONG19.00CH700CCH114-Feb-20116.125 690.500 4.375 0.33  31,229  1,683  ($1,663)318-Feb-2011
SHORT20.00CK650PCK12-Feb-201128.875 701.000 20.250 0.28  28,192  (315) $8,625 6521-Apr-2011
SHORT20.00CK650PCK115-Feb-201120.250 701.000 20.250 0.28  28,192  (315)$0 6521-Apr-2011
SHORT5.00CK700PCK114-Feb-201136.500 701.000 41.500 0.46  11,598  (93) ($1,250)6521-Apr-2011
SHORT41.00CK750CCK115-Feb-201124.625 701.000 24.625 (0.36) (73,684) (700)$0 6521-Apr-2011
SHORT2.00CN500PCN17-Jan-201120.875 704.250 2.125 0.04  352  (5) $1,875 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT30.00CN550PCN123-Dec-201037.250 704.250 8.000 0.10  15,286  (176) $43,875 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT22.00CN630PCN121-Jan-201147.875 704.250 27.125 0.26  28,941  (236) $22,825 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT5.00CN630PCN18-Feb-201131.000 704.250 27.125 0.26  6,578  (54) $969 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT55.00CN800CCN123-Dec-201030.750 704.250 30.500 (0.33) (89,459) (613) $688 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT10.00CN800CCN126-Jan-201128.000 704.250 30.500 (0.33) (16,265) (112) ($1,250)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT27.00CN800CCN128-Jan-201124.000 704.250 30.500 (0.33) (43,916) (301) ($8,775)12924-Jun-2011
343.00(0.06) (100,102) (2,371) $80,600
SHORT4.00SH1300CSH17-Jan-201193.875 1368.000 68.875 (0.93) (18,657) (36) $5,000 318-Feb-2011
LONG4.00SH1300CSH115-Feb-201168.875 1368.000 68.875 0.93  18,657  36 $0 318-Feb-2011
SHORT5.00SH1300PSH129-Dec-201034.500 1368.000 0.875 0.05  1,221  (58) $8,406 318-Feb-2011
SHORT15.00SH1300PSH112-Jan-201113.125 1368.000 0.875 0.05  3,664  (175) $9,188 318-Feb-2011
SHORT5.00SH1360PSH112-Jan-201130.500 1368.000 8.750 0.39  9,837  (308) $5,438 318-Feb-2011
LONG5.00SH1360PSH115-Feb-20118.750 1368.000 8.750 (0.39) (9,837) 308 $0 318-Feb-2011
SHORT5.00SH1380PSH18-Feb-20114.125 1368.000 20.125 0.64  15,898  (284) ($4,000)318-Feb-2011
LONG5.00SH1440PSH18-Feb-201124.000 1368.000 72.750 (0.93) (23,321) 45  $12,188 318-Feb-2011
SHORT5.00SH1440PSH115-Feb-201172.750 1368.000 72.750 0.93  23,321  (45)$0 318-Feb-2011
SHORT2.00SH1450CSH15-Jan-201143.500 1368.000 0.500 (0.03) (308) (17) $4,300 318-Feb-2011
LONG20.00SH1460CSH12-Feb-201120.750 1368.000 0.375 0.02  2,294  126  ($20,375)318-Feb-2011
SHORT20.00SK1400CSK115-Feb-201144.875 1381.250 44.875 (0.46) (46,199) (295)$0 6521-Apr-2011
SHORT12.00SK1400PSK12-Feb-201142.500 1381.250 63.625 0.53  31,995  (176) ($12,675)6521-Apr-2011
SHORT50.00SN1200PSN123-Dec-201042.500 1388.500 16.125 0.14  35,757  (273) $65,938 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT15.00SN1300PSN126-Jan-201148.500 1388.500 41.250 0.30  22,279  (128) $5,438 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT10.00SN1360PSN128-Jan-201167.250 1388.500 67.000 0.41  20,578  (94) $125 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT2.00SN1400PSN121-Jan-201188.875 1388.500 89.000 0.49  4,874  (19) ($13)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT6.00SN1400PSN18-Feb-201163.750 1388.500 89.000 0.49  14,622  (57) ($7,575)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT40.00SN1500CSN123-Dec-201082.500 1388.500 47.000 (0.34) (68,377) (327) $71,000 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT25.00SN1500CSN126-Jan-201167.250 1388.500 47.000 (0.34) (42,736) (204) $25,313 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT8.00SN1500CSN114-Feb-201156.625 1388.500 47.000 (0.34) (13,675) (65) $3,850 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT4.00SN1500CSN115-Feb-201147.000 1388.500 47.000 (0.34) (6,838) (33)$0 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT30.00SN1600CSN123-Dec-201062.000 1388.500 28.250 (0.22) (33,661) (190) $50,625 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT40.00SN1600CSN115-Feb-201128.250 1388.500 28.250 (0.22) (44,881) (253)$0 12924-Jun-2011
337.00(0.06) (103,492) (2,522) $222,169
SHORT3.00WH730CWH17-Jan-201168.125 840.250 110.375 (0.94) (14,106) (2) ($6,338)318-Feb-2011
SHORT20.00WH750PWH119-Jan-201113.875 840.250 0.125 0.01  901  (58) $13,750 318-Feb-2011
SHORT2.00WH770PWH15-Jan-201127.375 840.250 0.250 0.02  189  (13) $2,713 318-Feb-2011
SHORT7.00WH830PWH115-Feb-20116.750 840.250 6.750 0.35  12,264  (458)$0 318-Feb-2011
LONG15.00WH850PWH18-Feb-20119.875 840.250 17.125 (0.62) (46,825) 986  $5,438 318-Feb-2011
SHORT8.00WH850PWH115-Feb-201117.125 840.250 17.125 0.62  24,974  (526)$0 318-Feb-2011
LONG30.00WH870CWH126-Jan-201125.000 840.250 2.625 0.17  25,183  1,282  ($33,563)318-Feb-2011
LONG8.00WH870CWH12-Feb-201123.000 840.250 2.625 0.17  6,716  342  ($8,150)318-Feb-2011
LONG5.00WH880CWH18-Feb-201117.750 840.250 1.500 0.10  2,614  152  ($4,063)318-Feb-2011
SHORT25.00WN700PWN123-Dec-201037.875 900.000 8.875 0.09  11,642  (111) $36,250 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT12.00WN800PWN121-Jan-201158.750 900.000 34.750 0.26  15,449  (97) $14,400 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT10.00WN800PWN126-Jan-201142.500 900.000 34.750 0.26  12,874  (81) $3,875 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT2.00WN850CWN123-Dec-201089.125 900.000 106.250 (0.64) (6,362) (18) ($1,713)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT4.00WN850PWN12-Feb-201157.500 900.000 56.375 0.35  7,088  (36) $225 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT12.00WN850PWN18-Feb-201147.500 900.000 56.375 0.35  21,265  (108) ($5,325)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT5.00WN850PWN114-Feb-201145.625 900.000 56.375 0.35  8,860  (45) ($2,688)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT15.00WN850PWN115-Feb-201156.375 900.000 56.375 0.35  26,581  (135)$0 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT10.00WN900CWN123-Dec-201073.500 900.000 83.500 (0.54) (27,093) (93) ($5,000)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT2.00WN900CWN112-Jan-201166.625 900.000 83.500 (0.54) (5,419) (19) ($1,688)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT60.00WN1000CWN123-Dec-201049.250 900.000 50.750 (0.38) (112,875) (512) ($4,500)12924-Jun-2011
SHORT6.00WN1000CWN114-Feb-201163.125 900.000 50.750 (0.38) (11,287) (51) $3,713 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT30.00WN1100CWN126-Jan-201139.250 900.000 30.250 (0.25) (37,549) (209) $13,500 12924-Jun-2011
SHORT12.00WN1100CWN128-Jan-201131.675 900.000 30.250 (0.25) (15,019) (83) $855 12924-Jun-2011
303.00(0.07) (99,935) 108  $21,693

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