Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Opening Grain Market Comments 9-17-13

Markets are called better this a.m. after a firmer overnight session that seemed to gain most of its strength when FSA acre numbers came out this a.m.

When the overnight session ended corn was up a dime, KC wheat was up 5, MPLS wheat was up 3, CBOT wheat was up 7, and soybeans were up 17 cents.  Outside markets at 8:10 have the US dollar weaker by about a 100 ticks, crude down nearly a buck at 105.75 on the Oct contract, gold down 3 bucks, and the DOW future pointing towards a start of about unchanged.

Looks like the markets bounced a little off of some chart support plus this a.m. we got FSA data that comes off as bullish.  I say “comes off” as bullish because you can read in many different places how the FSA data has never lined up perfectly to what the USDA uses.  So the headline off more prevent planted acres comes off as very bullish. 

Corn had prevented plantings reported at 3.57 million acres and 91.43 million acres enrolled in subsidy programs.    For soybeans we had FSA prevented plantings reported at 1.69 million acres this morning and 74.66 million acres planted enrolled in subsidy programs.  Now the big headline tells the funds that harvest acres need to go down.  But as mentioned I am not positive that’s how it will shake out because there is a history of the FSA numbers and USDA numbers be different.

Yesterday we did have crop conditions out; not much for surprises other then the fact that we did have corn harvested reported.

Here is the CHS Hedging recap of the weekly condition report.

As for cash markets; look for the nearby to continue to show pressure for local markets.  Why and why so generic?  Because we simply can’t get enough trucks or rail cars to move the product that is trying to move ahead of fall harvest.  Plus we have a little new crop corn coming in to a few locations.  I expect to see basis get extremely wide for some of the grains in the short term.  Longer term I do think we could see a bounce; but over the next month or so it just feels like we are going to get ran over with product.

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