Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Mid day update from Country Hedging's Chris Steinhoff 7-18-12

Crude oil is up 60 cents, ethanol is down a penny…DJIA is up 60 points

Corn---930 am and BOOM, volume increase and corn goes from lower to up slightly, then backs off again….Crop making rains are scattered across MN and WI with reports of many 1-2” amounts. Otherwise the US supply question remains unanswered as longer term forecast remain hot and dry and the crop struggles. Profit taking has to occur once in a while as CZ has run almost $3.00 since mid june. Weekly ethanol production was down 19,000bbls, but not nearly enough for the rationing that needs to be seen in the upcoming months until the US supply is known. Spreads should remain firm until we at least figure out the US supply. Biggest problem it is only July 18 and we are a long way from knowing anything. Some selling corn against beans and it seems corn is anchored alittle by wheat today. farmer is slow

Soyabeans----finally time for beans to take a leader roll as weather isn’t any better for the bean crop and we are beginning to run out of time for that salvation rain too. Buy beans against corn today, and still plenty of room to run.  Scatterd rains fall across northern growing areas which is a HUGE benefit. Extended forecast look to be mainly very warm and mostly dry. Can Chinese demand be slowed? Does US exporter have the new crop sales covered? Will the US crop make 40bpa? A lot of questions with few answers in mid july. Spreads should remain firm until we know some of these answers.

Wheat---harvest moves north and yields are typically better than anticipated. Will we need to feed wheat because we will not have the corn? Export business is routine. Black Sea region will not have as much grain to sell for a while. Too dry in many areas if we needed to seed winter wheat today.  Farmer doesn’t sell much

***after today I will be gone the balance of the week as I have 5 inlaws visiting until Sunday

Christopher Steinhoff
Market Analyst
651-355-3723 fax

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