Information about grain markets and info to help producers to market crops. See how various grain marketing strategies can effect ones average price. We will be posting various potential trade and option strategies along with marketing decisions made on our mock farms.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Mid Day update 7-23-2012 from Country Hedging's Chris Steinhoff
Risk off, herd selling day, Wall Street casino sells but
buys US$ which Is up 0.240 points…DJIA is 141 points lower…gold is $8.00
lower so your bling bling is worth less at the pawn shop today.
Corn---lower early but coming back. New all time highs are
again possible until we can get some definition of crop size. Corn has rallied
$3.00 in 30 days, so due for lower correction at some point on
profit taking as there are some BIG profits to take. Crop IS NOT GETTING BIGGER
today. The crop has sustained 90+degree highs for weeks with scattered rain
events. Crop conditions are likely to see sizable declines again this
afternoon. IS crop size 123.6bpa?(my guess) or is it 130 or 138bpa???? Need to
slow demand like never before. Exports have slowed and ethanol grind has slowed
and livestock feeding will eventually slow, but supply is a moving target on
July 23 and most likely getting smaller as it appears the seed companies
indestructible genetics they have been promising for years actually need some
rain and cooler temps(in other words they need perfect). Farmer is getting
bullish where he is going to have some crop. Farmer always seems to miss the
last $1.00+ of most rallies and they are definitely slowing their selling and
increasing their buy backs. Spreads are weaker as CU takes a hit, so does CZ.
Still hearing Brazil corn to US. Cash markets are soft and rail bids are
tough. Can we locally have an over supply and have a short crop?
Soyabeans---down hard and the shoulder is not coming off the
mat yet today, but today goes until 2pm. Weather may become too late for beans
as well. Mother nature has been early since March, trees leafed early, blue
grass seeded early, corn tasseled early, so why won’t beans be done growing
earlier than normal???? Plus traders love to trade the bean/corn spread. And
there is room yet for them to buy beans vs corn. currently at 2.07:1…Farmer
selling is also slowing as they await $20.00 to average all their “bad” $12.00
sales…China demand? Can we slow demand like we may need to? Market is inverted
on tight supplies.
Wheat---spring wheat harvest gets a strong start. Hearing
higher protein to this point. Yields better than the farmer thought they would
get. World demand remains routine. Futures have rallied $2-3 in a month.
Really didn’t have a reason for the rally so do not need a reason for the sell
off. farmer selling is slow. Tin piggy banks will be full when harvest is over
in most area. Farmers also becoming forgetful when an open order fills(they
forgot about that offer) etc etc. Same old same old. MGEx is inverted on
strong demand, or whatever…KC and CME also losing their carries.
Call if you need anything…aug precip outlook, then newest
drought monitor and drought outlook(doesn’t look too good)