Friday, March 9, 2012

USDA crop report - Rumors of China buying corn

Markets are called mixed this a.m. after a crop report that many are calling a non-event.

In the overnight session grains traded mainly higher with corn up 2, beans up about a dime, KC wheat up 2, MPLS up 4, and CBOT wheat up 4.  At 9:20 outside markets are mixed European wheat is up about 2% or about 12 cents a bushel, the dollar is stronger up nearly 800 at 79.911, equities are better with the DOW up about 45 points, and crude is up about a dollar.

Quick highlights of the report are US corn carryout unchanged at 801 million bushels, US bean carryout unchanged at 275 million bushels, and US wheat carryout down 20 million bushels to 825 million bushels.  A little disappointing as the market was looking for cuts in the US corn and bean balance sheets due to ideas of increased exports due to smaller South American Crops.  The USDA did take some of the SA crops smaller as world carry out numbers where cut across the board for the grains.

Beans down to 57.3 MMT versus 60.28 last month, corn down to 124.53 versus 125.35, and wheat down to 209.58 versus 213.1 last month.

On the surface trading just the US numbers markets are probably weaker for corn and beans; but with the friendly world numbers perhaps we see some two sided trading today.  The price action leading up to today could also provide a little idea of what’s to happen; beans bulls have to be a little disappointed while corn and wheat weakness may have the bears a little scared as the numbers really are not super bearish.

I think when everything is said and done we will be looking out for the end of the month crop report that will have planting intentions as well as quarterly stocks; perhaps that leads to some choppy sideways action.

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