Thursday, March 22, 2012

opening comments march 22nd

Markets are called mixed to weaker this a.m. behind a choppy two sided overnight trade; weaker outside markets, and decent export sales.

In the overnight session corn was unchanged, KC wheat was down 2, MPLS wheat was down 3,  CBOT wheat was unchanged, and beans were down 7 cents.  At 9:00 outside markets have the equities down with the DOW off 50 points, the US dollar is stronger with the cash index at 79.883, crude oil is off 2.50 a barrel, and European wheat is unchanged. 

Corn came in above trade range estimates and ahead of what is needed on a per week basis coming in at 33.9 million bushels of old crop corn.  Wheat was also above trade estimates and what is needed on a per week basis to meet present USDA projections as it came in at 19.8 million bushels.  Beans where below the trade estimates but still above what is needed on a per week basis coming in at 13.1 million bushels.

Outside markets presently are not helping the grains at all as we have equities down, crude down, gold down, and the US dollar up.

Next week we will have a USDA crop report out; the quarterly stocks and the planting intentions report.  I don’t think the acres planting intentions part is as import as yield and old crop quarterly stocks probably trumps weather importance for the short term.  For the corn balance sheets if we get a change like we have seen recently on the quarterly stocks report we could go any place from a sub 600 million bushel carryout to something over a billion bushels.  So don’t forget to have some marketing risk management plan in place before next week’s report.

Given that the market does expect us to consolidate a little bit ahead of the report; but our markets also have a nice tendency to do exactly the opposite of what most think they will. 

Basis feels steady and like it has stopped slipping but at the same token most ethanol plants have good to great coverage for the next few months.  The only positive basis really has going for it has been the weak board along with producers getting in the field as the demand side is a little slow for wheat, corn, and the birdseed products like milo.

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