Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Grain Market Comments 3-24-12 - Trade Estimates for USDA report
Markets are called mixed to better this a.m. behind a supportive overnight session and mixed outside markets. A choppy couple of sessions is expected heading into the USDA report on Friday.
In the overnight session corn bounced after getting beat up yesterday as it was up 5-6 cents on the old crop, new crop corn was up 2-3 cents, beans were up 3-6 cents, KC wheat was up a penny, MPLS wheat was up a penny, and CBOT wheat was up about 4 cents.
At 9:05 outside markets have European wheat weaker down by almost 1 %, equities are mixed with the DOW off 13 points, crude is up about 40 cents a barrel, gold is up about 7.00 an ounce, and the US dollar is near unchanged with the cash index at 79.074.
There is little lack of new news out this a.m. the big focus remains Friday’s report.
Here are the latest updates for estimates.
Average Trade Guesses
Average Range 2012 2011
Corn 94.658 93.7-95.7 94.0 91.921
Soybeans 75.429 74.495-76.676 75.0 74.976
All Wheat 57.551 56.0-58.3 58.0 54.409
Spring Wheat 13.35 11.895-14.5 n/a 12.394
U.S. Corn, Wheat Reserves Fall, Soybeans Rise, Survey Shows
U.S. March 1 Inventory Forecasts
2011 Average Range Previous USDA
March 1, 2011 Dec. 1, 2011
Corn 6.160 5.925-6.400 6.523 9.642
Soybeans 1.371 1.270-1.467 1.249 2.366
Wheat 1.250 1.181-1.400 1.425 1.656
European wheat is off a little bit after making 9 month highs yesterday; but overall very firm on dry weather. Wheat in the US is being reported as very good but now at high risk of an early frost; I had a producer in SD mention it was almost a foot tall and there have been numerous reports of foot tall wheat in KS. Wheat feels like it has a little bit of a bull story developing and we have the funds near record short.
Basis is steady to firmer with producer movement very slow. Demand however isn’t the most robust ever; we really need a little more exports for all of the grains as right now we are mainly a domestic market especially for milling wheat.
Don’t forget that tomorrow we will have a couple guest speakers for our weekly MWC Marketing Hour Roundtable. We will be going over some charts as well as strategies ahead of the big USDA report that is out on Friday.
There was a Bloomberg report out this a.m. that said Morgan Stanley is “Realatively Bullish” on the Ag Prices and to buy new crop corn and bean contracts on any weakness from the USDA report. Making comments that the present USDA yield projections are a little too optimistic.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.
Labels: Beans, charts, Charts and Strategies, commodity price risk management tools strategies grains futures options money cash flow, crop conditions, Delta Neautral Trading, Grain Markets and Grain Closing Commentary, Grain Markets Comments, Leverage Optoins Futures, Marketing Tools, MWC Marketing Hour Round Table, opening grain comments, option selling, Price Management, USDA Crop Report Supply and Demand