Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Grain Market Comments 3-24-12 - Trade Estimates for USDA report

Markets are called mixed to better this a.m. behind a supportive overnight session and mixed outside markets.  A choppy couple of sessions is expected heading into the USDA report on Friday.

In the overnight session corn bounced after getting beat up yesterday as it was up 5-6 cents on the old crop, new crop corn was up 2-3 cents, beans were up 3-6 cents, KC wheat was up a penny, MPLS wheat was up a penny, and CBOT wheat was up about 4 cents.

At 9:05 outside markets have European wheat weaker down by almost 1 %, equities are mixed with the DOW off 13 points, crude is up about 40 cents a barrel, gold is up about 7.00 an ounce, and the US dollar is near unchanged with the cash index at 79.074.

There is little lack of new news out this a.m. the big focus remains Friday’s report.

Here are the latest updates for estimates.

Average Trade Guesses

                                          USDA Estimates
               Average      Range         2012       2011
Corn           94.658      93.7-95.7       94.0      91.921
Soybeans       75.429    74.495-76.676     75.0      74.976
All Wheat      57.551      56.0-58.3       58.0      54.409
Spring Wheat   13.35     11.895-14.5       n/a       12.394

U.S. Corn, Wheat Reserves Fall, Soybeans Rise, Survey Shows

             U.S. March 1 Inventory Forecasts

2011      Average     Range          Previous USDA
                                March 1, 2011  Dec. 1, 2011
Corn       6.160   5.925-6.400      6.523       9.642
Soybeans   1.371   1.270-1.467      1.249       2.366
Wheat      1.250   1.181-1.400      1.425       1.656

European wheat is off a little bit after making 9 month highs yesterday; but overall very firm on dry weather.  Wheat in the US is being reported as very good but now at high risk of an early frost; I had a producer in SD mention it was almost a foot tall and there have been numerous reports of foot tall wheat in KS.  Wheat feels like it has a little bit of a bull story developing and we have the funds near record short.

Basis is steady to firmer with producer movement very slow.  Demand however isn’t the most robust ever; we really need a little more exports for all of the grains as right now we are mainly a domestic market especially for milling wheat.

Don’t forget that tomorrow we will have a couple guest speakers for our weekly MWC Marketing Hour Roundtable.  We will be going over some charts as well as strategies ahead of the big USDA report that is out on Friday.

There was a Bloomberg report out this a.m. that said Morgan Stanley is “Realatively Bullish” on the Ag Prices and to buy new crop corn and bean contracts on any weakness from the USDA report.  Making comments that the present USDA yield projections are a little too optimistic.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.


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