Markets are called mixed to better this a.m. behind a
supportive overnight session and mixed outside markets. A choppy couple of sessions is expected
heading into the USDA report on Friday.
In the overnight session corn bounced after getting beat up
yesterday as it was up 5-6 cents on the old crop, new crop corn was up 2-3
cents, beans were up 3-6 cents, KC wheat was up a penny, MPLS wheat was up a
penny, and CBOT wheat was up about 4 cents.
At 9:05 outside markets have European wheat weaker down by
almost 1 %, equities are mixed with the DOW off 13 points, crude is up about 40
cents a barrel, gold is up about 7.00 an ounce, and the US dollar is near
unchanged with the cash index at 79.074.
There is little lack of new news out this a.m. the big focus
remains Friday’s report.
Here are the latest updates for estimates.
Average Trade Guesses
Acreage
USDA Estimates
February
Average
Range
2012 2011
Corn
94.658
93.7-95.7 94.0
91.921
Soybeans 75.429
74.495-76.676 75.0 74.976
All Wheat 57.551
56.0-58.3
58.0 54.409
Spring Wheat 13.35
11.895-14.5
n/a 12.394
U.S. Corn, Wheat Reserves Fall, Soybeans Rise,
Survey Shows
U.S. March 1 Inventory Forecasts
2011
Average
Range Previous USDA
March 1,
2011 Dec. 1, 2011
Corn 6.160
5.925-6.400
6.523 9.642
Soybeans 1.371
1.270-1.467
1.249 2.366
Wheat 1.250
1.181-1.400
1.425 1.656
European wheat is off a little bit after making 9
month highs yesterday; but overall very firm on dry weather. Wheat in the US is being reported as very
good but now at high risk of an early frost; I had a producer in SD mention it
was almost a foot tall and there have been numerous reports of foot tall wheat
in KS. Wheat feels like it has a little
bit of a bull story developing and we have the funds near record short.
Basis is steady to firmer with producer movement
very slow. Demand however isn’t the most
robust ever; we really need a little more exports for all of the grains as
right now we are mainly a domestic market especially for milling wheat.
Don’t forget that tomorrow we will have a couple
guest speakers for our weekly MWC Marketing Hour Roundtable. We will be going over some charts as well as
strategies ahead of the big USDA report that is out on Friday.
There was a Bloomberg report out this a.m. that said
Morgan Stanley is “Realatively Bullish” on the Ag Prices and to buy new crop
corn and bean contracts on any weakness from the USDA report. Making comments that the present USDA yield
projections are a little too optimistic.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do
for you.
Thanks
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