Friday, February 17, 2012
opening grain comments
Markets are called better this a.m. behind a firmer overnight session and supportive outside markets.
In the overnight session beans where up 11-12 cents, CBOT was up 9 cents, KC wheat was 3-4 higher, MPLS saw the front month up 3 with some of the deferred months down 4-8 cents, old crop corn was up 5, and new crop corn was down 1. At 8:50 outside markets have European wheat up a little over 1 %, equities are slightly firmer with the DOW up 40 points, crude oil is up about 80 cents and the US dollar is near unchanged with the cash index at 79.283.
Yesterday it appeared as those we seen some index fund re-balancing as the deferred MPLS really took off and that helped spike up some of the KC markets where we actually seen a close higher then the electronic high of the day. It appears in the overnight some of that got corrected as seen with front month MPLS stronger while deferred slots where weaker.
Basis has steady out on the MPLS spot floor as producer selling has really dried down. Basis for winter wheat however feels very defensive and plugged up front. We really need a little export to domestic competition for both of the wheat markets to have a long term rally and that seems far fetched given our world supplies that are showing record carryout’s. Along those same lines we India’s wheat crop up to 88.3 MMT; a 60 year high.
We did get some more SRW business done with Egypt in the past day or so; a change from Russia/Black Seas and the 2nd time in a week or so that it has happened.
The birdseed market really feels like a buyers market as demand is very slow and it is hard to find bids that don’t run away from you.
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