Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Grain Market Commentary - Commodity Prices Continue to move up on smaller crop estimates in South America

Markets where called mixed to weaker this a.m. behind weaker outside markets and a lower overnight session. 

In the overnight session corn was down 2-3 cents, beans where 6-7 lower, KC wheat was off 2-3 cents, MPLS wheat was unchanged and CBOT wheat was down 2-3 cents.  At 9:20 outside markets have the US dollar stronger, the equities are weaker with the DOW down 52 points, and crude is off about 60 cents a barrel.

Not much for new news this a.m.; it does appear that parts of SA now received a little more moisture then expected.

The markets did open as expected a little weaker following the overnight session; but within the first 5 min’s most had reversed and turned positive and basically kept gaining throughout most of the day.  We did close a little off of our highs and MPLS had a disappointing performance but in general the grains had another positive day as the bullish momentum continued.

Corn closed up a dime, KC wheat up 12, MPLS unchanged, beans where 2-3 higher, equities where weaker, dollar firmer, crude off about 75 cents a barrel, and CBOT wheat up 14.  MPLS spreads widened out and the spot floor was a little weaker while spread for corn firmed up showing more signs of solid demand.

Talk was in the marketplace that Russia will be placing an export tax on wheat; thus slowing down their wheat exports and perhaps leading to a little business for the US.  But those rumors where denied by the government.  Also rumored was Argentina placing some sort of restriction on their corn exports due the drought damage.

Basis firming, weather, and ideas that the funds want to jump on the bull bandwagon for the commodities continued to help our markets today.  Until exports slow down we should find some sort of support; but keep in mind the reason that our markets are futures markets.  They like to throw plenty of curveballs when we least expect it.

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