Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Mock Trade - Bullish Trade

I decided to add a bullish trade today to help offset some present positions and simply show a trade that should be limited cost (if held short term) yet provide rather good returns if the markets pops up like some producers feel should happen.  After all the corn market is now a market that most buyers or end users are showing good returns so to make a bullish bet with decent returns and light risk (if managed correctly).

So the play I used which I am putting in our mock trading which as mentioned yesterday is now opened up with the only rule being trades need to be posted here at www.grainmarketingplans.blogspot.com

Sell 1 Dec 6.20 corn call and purchase 2 of the Dec 6.50 corn calls; net cost of about 7 cents; which is my risk in a down market.  Upside risk if held is at 6.50 which would be the 30 cent spread as well as the cost or 37 cents total.  The neat thing about this trade is if market moves up in a hurry and time value hasn't ate away it can be a good winner at the 6.50 level.

Here are a couple of graphs; red line represents today; green line when option expires.  In the second chart the red line is in 15 days after a 50 cent rally.

Note the ranges are different in each of the P L Graphs.

As for an exit strategy I plan on re-evaluating on Oct 19th; during our MWC Marketing Hour Round Table; assuming i will need to watch and manage closely if the markets are up while let the trade sit if the markets are down.

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