Thursday, September 8, 2011

opening comments

Markets are called weaker this morning behind a weaker overnight session and mixed outside markets.

In the overnight session corn was off about 3 cents, beans where off about 8 cents, KC wheat was down 7, MPLS wheat was 4 lower, and CBOT wheat was down 4.  As of 9:20 outside markets have European wheat near unchanged, equities are slightly softer with the DOW off 30 points, crude is up about 20 cents a barrel, and the US dollar is bouncing with the cash index at 75.819 up 353.

Not tons of new news out there this morning.  Outside markets and consolidation into next week’s USDA report are leading the headlines.  Basis is steady on most of the commodities but the trend over the past month or so has been weaker for corn, beans, and spring wheat.  Spreads are showing signs of bear markets lately as the carries widen out or inverses become less.

Here is a run down of idea’s for report.

DJ SURVEY: US Grain, Soybean Carryout

               Average       Range       USDA
Corn (19)      0.636      0.497-0.757    0.714
Soybeans (19)  0.152      0.110-0.188    0.155
Wheat (17)     0.667      0.628-0.705    0.671

DJ SURVEY: USDA September Corn, Soybean Production Report

                                       August   2010
              Average       Range      USDA     Production
Corn (24)      12.505   11.913-12.913  12.914   12.447
Soybeans (24)   3.025    2.924-3.085    3.056    3.329

Yield                                  August   2010
              Average       Range      USDA     Yield
Corn (24)       148.8    145.0-153.0   153.0    152.8
Soybeans (24)    41.0     40.0-41.8     41.4     43.5

Yesterday we did have one of our Marketing Hour Round Table meetings.

Below are notes and attached are some of the charts we went over.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.


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