Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Grain Market Opening Comments 9-21-2011 ....what will the Fed do today?

Markets are called mixed today behind mixed outside markets and a mixed overnight session.

In the overnight session KC wheat was 3 lower, MPLS was off a penny, CBOT wheat was up ½ on the Dec while the deferred month’s where weaker, beans where up 2, and Corn was up 3 cents.  At 9:15 outside markets are choppy as they perhaps wait for a fed announcement at 1:15 right when the grain markets close, presently the DOW is up 10 points as equities are close to home, crude is off about 50 cents a barrel, the US dollar is firmer by a couple hundred with the cash index at 77.253, and European wheat is near unchanged.

Another lack of news day as our markets continue to hang around waiting for the next price catalyst to help push the next big price move.  This afternoon the Fed will have a statement and that could effect the outside markets as well as our markets. 

As for our markets we have been seeing early yield reports showing better then expected yields on the early harvest reports that we have seen; perhaps a little early but so far that is the trend we are hearing.

Basis remains a little on the defensive but with the recent break in prices there are times when we have started to see a little buying interest.  Seems like the market is almost starting to act like it is suppose to in that basis firms when board drops and when board rallies basis becomes weaker just like it is suppose to in marketing.

Watch for choppy markets that really are waiting for some big news.  Next week’s stock’s report could be a key report in determining price action as we move forward over the next several months; keep in mind that the quarterly stocks report has been a limit day report many times over the past couple of years. 

As for marketing grain I think one need’s to keep in mind risk diversification; as depending on how certain factors pan out there could be rather big moves in either upward or downward prices as we move forward.  Bottom line is I really don’t want to be left undersold if markets crash nor do I really want to be oversold if we see major strength to the upside.  Things are just too volatile too get over extended trying to out guess these markets; so focus should probably be good risk management that involves risk diversification over time while focusing on making decisions or in grain marketing sales that make sense.

If you need help with a marketing plan please feel free to give one of us in the grain department a call.

This afternoon we will be having our MWC Marketing Hour Roundtable; hope to see some of you there as we go over various charts and possible trading strategies as well as do some mock trading.


No comments:

Post a Comment