Monday, May 16, 2011

Grain Markets Opening Comments 5-16-11 stronger markets ...China buying corn again or another commodity sell off waiting to happen?

Markets are called mixed to higher this a.m. from a firmer overnight session and mixed outside markets.

In the overnight session CBOT wheat was up 10, MPLS wheat was up 12, KC wheat was up 8, beans where up 3-4 cents, old crop corn was up 11, and new crop corn was up 6.  At 9:15 outside markets have crude down 80 cents a barrel, European wheat up 1-1 ½ percent, the US dollar is weaker down 333 at 75.424 on the US Dollar cash index, and equities are softer with the DOW down 25 points.  Crude, the US dollar, and equities are more supportive to the grains now then they where when the grain paused their session at 7:15.

China’s rumors of buying old and new crop corn, weather, and a technical bounce in oversold markets are the main reasons being talked about this a.m. for last night’s bounce and a possible continuation of a bounce this a.m.  On the weather front quality concerns for the SRW crop has popped it’s head and cold weather hasn’t allowed for the corn crop to progress much.  This afternoon we will have a planting progress and crop conditions report out.  Estimates are all over the board for corn planting progress as I have seen the from 55% to 70% planted.

We will have export shipments out this a.m. at 10:00 and those may be watched a little more then normal due to the fact that last week the USDA cut exports for corn and beans.  If we can see shipments pick up over the next several weeks then there is a chance that the bulls are correct in regards to last week’s reasoning behind the cut in exports.  That it was simply logistics due to flooding and that the sales/shipments should pick back up once logistics allow.  Lower prices seem to have helped the demand picture in general and it has been heavily noted that corn basis is firmer.

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