Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Grain Market Opening Commentary May 3rd; markets mixed, new crop corn stronger on slow planting progress

Markets are called mixed this a.m. on weaker outside markets, but a supportive USDA crop progress report did give new crop corn some strength in the overnight session.

In the overnight session old crop corn was off 2-3, new crop corn was up 8-9 cents, beans where off 9-11 cents, KC wheat was unchanged, MPLS wheat was unchanged, and CBOT wheat was down 4.  At 9:15 outside markets have crude off 1.25 a barrel, the US dollar is firmer, and equities are near unchanged with the DOW up 10 points.

Yesterday crop progress showed corn planting only at 13 % versus estimates in the 15-20 % and last year we where well over 50%.  Spring wheat planting was only at 10% which is the slowest rate in the past 20 years.  HRW conditions where mixed down 1 % in the G/E.

Basis continues to show decent demand for wheat; the spring wheat spot floor is a little hit and miss but that always has been.  HRW values feel decent but I would say the demand has shifted from upfront to later slots; perhaps railroads have caught up a little bit?

Technically we have wheat up against some support levels/area that it would be nice to hold.  The funds are long plenty of grain and that is probably one of our biggest risks out there; an overall sell off by the funds or simply put money outflow instead of inflow like it has been for many months.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

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