- Ukraine grain exports fell by 40% in January to 2.79 mil tons. However, total exports for their marketing year were at 21.9 mil tons [mostly wheat and corn].
- A very large snow system developed across the central plains, bringing needed moisture to much of the HRW belt. The system moves into the Northeastern US today, bringing frigid cold temps behind.
- Yesterday’s fund buying in corn estimated at 12,000 contracts, wheat 7,000, beans 10,000.
- Goldman Sachs index roll begins Friday, buying May, selling March futures.
- US Senate approves Farm Bill on a 68-32 vote.
- A private analyst reduced Brazilian and Argentine corn production ideas by a cumulative 3.4 mil tons.
- Technical buying and short covering sponsoring another day up in corn.CH closes above 100 day moving average [4.40] for first time since June 2012.
Outlook: corn kept pace with beans and wheat trading higher yesterday. If producer selling pressure is absorbed, the market could hold respectable gains through the week. Steady to 2 lower.
- Stats Canada canola stocks came in at 12.6 mil tons, versus last year at 8.1 mil.
- There were reports the Argentine government would take a ‘more aggressive stance’ to encourage farmers to sell beans. It is estimated that farmers have held back close to 7 mil tons of last year’s beans due to inflationary currency fears.
- Parts of Brazil have remained dry, missing recent rains, and this idea added to the support in futures prices.
- Mar bean meal set a new contract high close at $447.00 [+$13].
Outlook: beans continued higher overnight, but seeing slightly lower early going trade. After two days of higher trade, could see South American farmer pricing keep a lid on additional gains. Steady to 3 lower.
- Stats Canada all wheat stocks came in at 28.4 mil tons, versus last year at 20.6 mil.
- The magnitude of state HRW declines spurred further short covering in the wheat complex.G/E changes included: KS from 58% to 35%, TX from 23% to 19%, OK from 63% to 36%, NE from 65% to 46%.
- Wheat spreads remained firm, with KWH/K pushing up to +9 inverse, with WH/K at -2 carry.KWH/N traded up to +16 inverse.
- The wheat complex is still feeding off of short covering and technical support. KWH took out the previous high [6.42 ¾ ] at the close yesterday.