Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Opening Grain Market Comments 2-25-14

Grain markets are called mixed this morning after a choppy overnight session that saw corn unchanged to up ½ cent a bushel, KC wheat unchanged (basis May), MPLS wheat up ¼ of a cent, CBOT wheat unchanged, and soybean down ½ to 2 ½ cents a bushel.  At 8:00 outside markets have DOW futures pointing towards a softer start of about 10 points, crude is down 1.05 a barrel with the April contract at $101.69, the US dollar index is off 115 points with the cash index at 80.079, and gold is down a buck an ounce at 1337.00.

Fairly quiet on the news front today.  The past few days the big headlines have been the USDA outlook conference last week; that left a major negative headline for the funds to trade; even though it probably wasn’t realistic. 

Here is just one of the stories that the conference lead to getting printed.  http://www.agrimoney.com/news/us-corn-stocks-to-soar-43percent-to-10-year-high---usda--6782.html  As you can see the headline of US  corn stocks to soar 43 % to a 10-year high isn’t something to get money flow buying corn.  The reality is that what type of carryout we will have for 2014/15 is up to many factors including acres, yield, and demand.  On the yield side of things if you take the past 4-5 years you will notice a huge swing in yields.   Bottom line is yields that the USDA used last week probably do leave us with a big carryout; but it is probably a little early in the game to assume that we can hit that type of yield.  The reality should be that yields of 160-170 or higher take our carryout very big and thus lower prices, but in my opinion it is a coin flip if we are above or below 160; and if we happen to come in closer to a 150 yield or less the carryout gets tight in a hurry while the prices could bounce in a hurry as well.

The other thing that has been talked about the last few days has been the lack of bean cancellations.  Every week we need to cancel some bean exports not to go over what the USDA has us pegged at; yet every week we have continued to sell beans.  Yesterday we had shipments in line with estimates for all three of the grains.

Yesterday we also had March soybean contract close at its highest level since September of 2012.  Very strong technical market; with a strong looking chart.  We are overdone and we are seeing sell signals from advisors but right now the chart looks like a run away train.

We also seen wheat and corn maybe develop some trading ranges yesterday with the strong up tick from the lows.  If we can hold the lows charts look real positive; and would look even more positive if we take out last week’s highs.

Railroads continue to struggle and that is making basis and cash price bids rather choppy.  I do like having offers out on basis for wheat and flat price items like sunflowers; but whether offers get booked or not probably depends largely on the rail road and it is kind of a catch 22.  Because if we get a lot of cars then offers probably trade high; but if we get cars and everyone gets cars then the mills might be double bought and so may end users like birdseed plants. 

Basically nearly every mill and birdseed plant has had to order 2-3 times (maybe more) then what they actually need.  Same thing with us and rail cars; because the railroad is so far behind it has lead to ordering more cars then perhaps are actually needed.  Because us as an elevator or an end user such as a mill can’t afford cars not to show up.  The mills and birdseed plants can’t afford to have to shut down because they don’t have product to process.  While us as an elevator don’t want to make every producer in the world mad if we don’t have any cars.  Things will eventually turn around but right now all the hype and bad performance leads to more pressure put on the rail lines.

I have had many asked why rail performance is so bad.  First off the demand for oil in ND seems to have switched some focus from grain to oil and that has created more rail demand for grain on other lines.  Next you have had a cold and snow filled winter.  Then you also have the fact that we have a 14 billion bushel corn crop; versus 10-12 the past couple years; 2 billion bushels more is about 500,000 more rail cars.  So maybe South America isn’t the only one that has outgrown their infrastructure????

I just seen this pop up on screen for morning export announcements. 

Export Sale, Cancellation     02/25 08:11

   USDA: Sale of Soybeans to China, Cancellation of SRW Wheat to Egypt  

   Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export
sales of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2013-14 marketing year and a
cancellation of a soft red winter wheat sale to Egypt during the 2013-14
marketing year.

   WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) -- Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department
of Agriculture the following sales activity:

   - Export sales of 568,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China
during the 2013-14 marketing year.

   - Cancellation of 110,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat sale to Egypt
during the 2013-14 marketing year.

   The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

   The marketing year for wheat began June 1.

   The USDA issues both daily and weekly export sales to the public. Exporters
are required to report to the USDA any export sales activity of 100,000 metric
tons or more of one commodity made in one day or quantities totaling 200,000
tons or more in any reporting period to one destination, by 3:00 p.m. Eastern
time on the next business day. Export sales of less than these quantities must
be reported to the USDA on a weekly basis.


Here is more market info; from CHS Hedging; their morning highlights

Morning Highlights

By Ryan Stone

Highlights
  • As of 7:00 am CT, the Dollar Index is down .075 at 80.150, crude oil is down $1.32 at $101.50, gold is down $5.00 at $1,333.30, and European stocks are lower.
  • Even with equity futures trading lower this morning, outside market strength is impressive with the S&P reaching an all-time high yesterday.
  • Reminder: First notice day for March grain and oilseed futures is Friday, February 28th.
 
Corn

  • The nearby corn contract continues to hold support at $4.50.
  • Yesterday, another U.S. exporter announced that it will not handle MIR-162 corn. The list of exporters willing to handle this type of GMO is shrinking by the day.
  • As corn export sales continue their impressive pace, river logistics seem to be deteriorating. A return of the “polar vortex” has renewed concerns of ice restricting barge traffic, and an oil spill on the lower Mississippi has export terminals concerned that corn origination for export may slow down significantly.  
Outlook: Mostly unchanged on supportive technicals and limited new fundamental news.

Oilseeds
  • Logistics in South America continue to garner attention after the recent rainfall. Reports of combines and trucks getting stuck in the mud are becoming increasingly common.
  • Mato Grosso, Brazil’s most intense soybean growing region, is being described as 50% harvested.
  • The U.S. continues to export large quantities of soybeans with yesterday’s export inspections reporting another 46.7 million bushels shipped.
  • Domestic soybean processors continue to roll their spot basis from SH to SK, many of which have dropped their basis in the process.
Outlook: 3 to 5 cents weaker as traders take profits after the recent rally.

Wheat
  • The return of cold weather has once again sparked concerns of winter kill.
  • The Ukrainian parliament voted in favor of sending former president Viktor Yanukovich and other high ranking government officials to trial in the International Criminal Court. This continued news of a resolution to the recent Ukrainian crisis has calmed the concerns of wheat traders.
  • A group of millers from Taiwan has agreed to purchase 83 tmt of U.S. wheat.
Outlook: Mostly unchanged with continued export demand supporting the market. 









Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)



CHS Midwest Cooperatives Logo



This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.

Monday, February 10, 2014

Closing Grain Market Comments - USDA Report Day 2-10-14

Grain markets closed mixed today; on the heels of a mixed USDA report.

When things closed corn was down a penny, KC wheat was up 11-14, MPLS wheat was up 9-12, beans down 6 cents, the US dollar near unchanged with the cash index at 80.640, and the DOW was up 8 points.

USDA report was out this morning.  Mixed to poor reaction with a mixed report.  Headlines where bullish corn, bullish wheat, and neutral to bearish beans.

Very disappointing for corn as we seen a 150 million bushel cut in the carryout; that typically could be a strong up day.  But not today; perhaps because the strength was just increased exports; which is really old news.  Maybe we can see follow strength in a few days?  Delayed price reaction perhaps?

The one thing that I thought was good was the fact that corn carryout is now around 500 million bushels less than some of the numbers many had out in late December/early January.  The problem is 1.48 billion bushels of corn is still a lot of corn; yes it is much tighter then some thought; but tight enough for us to rally?  Plus we already have rallied some.


In the big picture having a starting spot next year at 2.0 billion bushels or 1.5 billion bushels should make a big difference in regards to the importance of weather and acres.  So even though 1.48 billion bushels is plenty of corn; the trend is going the right direction.  The trend of getting tighter isn’t going to hurt prices. 

As for the bean market; the USDA left things unchanged in the US.  A line in the sand that the USDA simply won’t go past even if they should??  The bottom line on today’s update for beans is we didn’t really change anything.  If demand stays strong we probably need to find a way to ratio demand.  While the crop outlook in SA remains big.  But is that big crop for sale???  If it is why have our exports remained so strong?

As for wheat; it lead price direction today; and perhaps set the stages for more short covering.  But today was no market changer for wheat;  558 million bushel carryout is tight; but wheat has a history of showing us that it can have good prices with big carryout numbers while we have seen poor prices with tight supplies.  The hardest question for wheat is really determining what is tight.

For the big picture today’s report should show us that our demand has really increased; the low prices helped our exports get increase for corn, wheat, and beans today. 

We will have to really watch the March stocks report; but if that doesn’t show a surprise in quarterly stocks we have set the stages for perhaps a fundamental reason for grains to bounce.  Yes some dry weather and weather scares this spring would help; but today’s carryout numbers are much tighter then some thought they would be several months ago.  They are not bullish; but they could eventually lead to a little bounce. 

Money sitting on the sidelines could easily decide to enter our market wondering if they missed the lows.

As for more info on the USDA report below are couple links; the first is CHS You Tube video with highlights from the report.  The second is more info broke down on the report from the Van Trump Report.






Here is CHS Hedging Report recap.


Here are numbers with info from the Van Trump Report.

February WASDE Supply & Demand Numbers  Just wanted to provide everyone with the latest USDA changes and adjustments.  Below are the specifics and a few thoughts. 
Soybeans - Bearish - Net-net no change in US ending stocks.  Global ending stocks pushed higher on production increases in Brazil 
  • Exports bumped higher by 15 million bushels from 1.495 billion to 1.510 billion. 
  • Crush left unchanged at 1.700 billion
  • Residual was dropped 10 million from 22 million down to 12 million.  
  • Imports raised higher from 25 to 30 million.   
  • Brazilian soybean production was bumped higher from 89 MMTs to 90 MMTs.
  • Argentine soybean production lowered from 54.50 to 54.0 MMTs in conjunction Arg exports were lowered from 9.7 MMTs down to 8.0 MMTs   
Corn - Neutral/Bullish - US ending stocks lowered by 150 million bushels. Global ending stocks also lowered.  Problem is many large traders are thinking "exports" might now be maxed out while a reduction of 300 million bushels plus is still set to come in the "feed/residual" category.    
  • Exports increased by 150 million from 1.450 billion to 1.60 billion
  • Ethanol left "unchanged" at 5.0 billion
  • Feed/Residual left "unchanged" 5.3 billion 
  • Argentine production lowered form 25.0 to 24.0 MMTs in conjunction exports were lowered form 17.0 to 16.0.  
  • Brazil production left "unchanged" at 70 MMTs 
  • Chinese production and imports left "unchanged" 
Wheat - Bullish - USDA moves ending stocks down  50 million bushels from 0.608 million to 0.558 million. Global ending stocks moved lower as well from 185.40 down to 183.73. 
  • Exports raised from 1.125 billion bushels to 1.175 billion 
  • Imports into the USDA increased from 160 million to 170 million 
  • Feed left unchanged at 250 million  
  • Argentine exports from 4.0 million down to 3.0 million 
  • Brazilian wheat imports lowered from 7.7 down to 7.4   
  • Chinese wheat imports left "unchanged" 
  • Kazakhstan wheat production lowered from 15.5 down to 13.94
  • Ukraine wheat production bumped slightly higher from 22.0 to 22.28
US 2013/14 Ending Stocks

Today's #
USDA January
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
USDA 2013
Corn
1.481
1.631
1.619
1.570 - 1.748
0.821
Soybeans
0.150
0.150
0.143
0.130 - 0.164
0.141
Wheat
0.558
0.608
0.603
0.574 - 0.653
0.718
World 2013/14 Ending Stocks

Today's #
USDA January
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Corn
157.3
160.23
159.60
156.27 - 163.20
Soybeans
73.01
72.33
72.67
71.00 - 75.35
Wheat
183.73
185.40
184.97
182.80 - 186.00
South American Production 2014

Today's #
USDA January
Avg. Guess
Range of Guesses
Argentina
Corn
24.00
25.00
23.82
19.80 - 25.00
Argentina Soybeans
54.00
54.50
54.13
52.70 - 57.00
Brazil
Corn

70.00
70.00
69.99
66.10 - 74.00
Brazil Soybeans
90.00
89.00
89.76
88.30 - 93.00


Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

Thanks


Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)



CHS Midwest Cooperatives Logo



This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Grain Market Comments 2-5-2014

Grain markets are called mixed to easier this morning on a little more producer selling after the nice bounce we had yesterday.

Yesterday we had very strong markets all around for the grains; last night and this morning we see a little correction or profit taking from the big rally.  When the overnight session ended we had corn off 2 cents, KC wheat off 2, MPLS wheat off 2, CBOT wheat off 3, and soybeans down 2.  At 8:00 we have rather quiet outside markets with the US dollar about unchanged with the cash index at 81.119,  the mini DOW futures are pointing towards a softer start of about 5 points on the DOW, gold is up 15 bucks an ounce at 1267.5 per ounce, and crude is up about 80 cents a barrel at 98.00 on the March crude oil contract.

First off many are asking what got into wheat yesterday?  It appeared to be a very oversold market finally getting a very overdue bounce.  On the heels of short covering as the funds are still short plenty of corn and wheat; while they remain long plenty of beans. 

What trigger the bounce?  Part of the strength was just follow up technical buying/short covering from the previous sessions.  The news out there that helped was the state crop conditions.  I believe Kansas wheat was at 58% G/E at the end of December and the ratings on Monday had KS wheat rated 38% G/E.  Bottom line is the dry weather south of us has added some concern for wheat.  As has possible winter kill the past few weeks.

Wheat also had Stats Canada out; which I thought was neutral; very big crop but in line with expectations.

Many of the charts took out some resistance areas; such as previous highs and moving averages.

I don’t see much different on the weather front.  But here is CHS Hedging Weather link for today.  http://chshedging.com/UserFiles/Documents/2014/Research/Weather/2.5.14%20ag_trader_brief_usa_country_hedging.pdf

One thing I did notice yesterday was a big increase in producer selling; which should happen when we have big supplies and we get a bounce.  It is just good risk management. 

As for how far can a rally take us; in my opinion our markets always have been able to overdo moves.  So for us to see a bigger bounce then one would thing shouldn’t be ruled out.  Keep in mind that our markets – wheat and corn; have lost a lot since the highs last year; wheat has even lost a lot since its October highs.  But as for risk management I think selling into the rallies is the only way to go.

As for longer term whether we see 2.00 corn, 3.00 corn, 5.00, 6.00, or higher that depends so much on the yield.  140-150 bushel or less for corn yield this year should provide plenty of fireworks.  Whereas 160-170 or higher should make rallies hard to come by.  Yes I think we have some weather scares at sometime; but when and what happens really will depend on mother nature.  I think we just need to realize that we have potential to have corn production and yield and thus prices at such a wide spread that either extreme could be scary.  So finding a way to be comfortable with the unknown might not be that easy; as no one wants to hold corn and watch it drop to 3.00 or less; nor does anyone want to sell 4.00 type corn and watch it go to 5.00 or 6.00 but the reality either one of those prices is very possible at this stage in the game.

As for wheat and beans, I think they are simply forced to follow corn to some extent.  As it sits right now we don’t have this big reason to have an acre war; but every acre that corn loses help make weather that much more important.  One also has to ask themselves what about some of the grains like spring wheat; does it really work for new crop? 

Bottom line for all of the above talk is we are entering a stage of plenty of unknowns.  Hopefully some of those unknowns will add some support to our markets.  Just realize that when it comes to marketing the possible extremes that are still open.  So it might make sense to use tools that leave you with the most options and most comfort as we move forward.

Wheat basis continues to be a big time moving target.  It all depends on the railroad and remains a catch 22.  If we see good rail movement then we are able to pay fairly decent offers on high pro spring wheat; while if we actually got cars the bids probably wouldn’t be nearly as strong.

Birdseed business remains strong; but buying interest is still weak.   I think there is plenty of upside potential; but we also need a catalyst to cause some buying interest. 

Don’t forget our weekly marketing meeting in Onida at 2:30 today Wednesday.



Morning Highlights

By Richard Plackemeier

Highlights

  • Ukraine grain exports fell by 40% in January to 2.79 mil tons. However, total exports for their marketing year were at 21.9 mil tons [mostly wheat and corn].
  • A very large snow system developed across the central plains, bringing needed moisture to much of the HRW belt. The system moves into the Northeastern US today, bringing frigid cold temps behind.
  • Yesterday’s fund buying in corn estimated at 12,000 contracts, wheat 7,000, beans 10,000.
  • Goldman Sachs index roll begins Friday, buying May, selling March futures.
  • US Senate approves Farm Bill on a 68-32 vote.

Corn

  • A private analyst reduced Brazilian and Argentine corn production ideas by a cumulative 3.4 mil tons.
  • Technical buying and short covering sponsoring another day up in corn.CH closes above 100 day moving average [4.40] for first time since June 2012.

Outlook: corn kept pace with beans and wheat trading higher yesterday. If producer selling pressure is absorbed, the market could hold respectable gains through the week. Steady to 2 lower.



Oilseeds

  • Stats Canada canola stocks came in at 12.6 mil tons, versus last year at 8.1 mil.
  • There were reports the Argentine government would take a ‘more aggressive stance’ to encourage farmers to sell beans. It is estimated that farmers have held back close to 7 mil tons of last year’s beans due to inflationary currency fears.
  • Parts of Brazil have remained dry, missing recent rains, and this idea added to the support in futures prices.
  • Mar bean meal set a new contract high close at $447.00 [+$13].

Outlook: beans continued higher overnight, but seeing slightly lower early going trade. After two days of higher trade, could see South American farmer pricing keep a lid on additional gains. Steady to 3 lower.


Wheat

  • Stats Canada all wheat stocks came in at 28.4 mil tons, versus last year at 20.6 mil.
  • The magnitude of state HRW declines spurred further short covering in the wheat complex.G/E changes included: KS from 58% to 35%, TX from 23% to 19%, OK from 63% to 36%, NE from 65% to 46%.
  • Wheat spreads remained firm, with KWH/K pushing up to +9 inverse, with WH/K at -2 carry.KWH/N traded up to +16 inverse.
  • The wheat complex is still feeding off of short covering and technical support. KWH took out the previous high [6.42 ¾ ] at the close yesterday.

Outlook: after a +22 cent surge yesterday, the wheat complex is seeing some minor setback overnight.  However, with the solid technical close yesterday, additional short-covering in Chicao and KC would not be ruled out.  2-4 cents lower.





Grain Merchandiser
Midwest Cooperatives
800-658-5535
800-658-3670
605-295-3100 (cell)
605-258-2166 (fax)



CHS Midwest Cooperatives Logo



This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed.  If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited.   This communication makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person.  Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures or options.