- Outside markets as of 7:00 AM CT: The U.S. dollar is trading up 0.50% at 80.911, Crude is up 30 cents at $97.66 per barrel. Nikkei is off 2.45% closing at 15,007, the Stoxx 50 is down .20% at 3,006, and U.S. equities down about 1%.
- Index fund rolls start next week, and this Friday marks month end.
- Yesterday the FED announced that tapering will continue, as bond buying will be reduced by another $10 billion per month to $65 billion per month.
- The House passed an updated Farm Bill, and the Senate is also expected to approve the bill sometime this week.
- The U.S. Midwest and Plain States will warm up to more seasonal temperatures over the next 10 days with light to moderate precipitation expected.
- Beneficial rains are forecasted for Argentina, while dry weather in Brazil will aid early soybean harvest.
- Range bound trade between the support level at $4.20 and the resistance level at $4.40 continues for nearby March futures.
- Yesterday’s ethanol production data showed a rate reduction of 5,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. Production is 17% above a year ago, and for the crop year so far annual grind equates to 5.04 billion bushels.
- For the 16th consecutive week there have been no ethanol imports into the U.S, as margins currently don’t exist for importers.
- Export sales estimate for this morning: 500 to 900 tmt.
- Rumors persist that China may have cancelled U.S. origin soybean purchases.
- China’s New Year’s Lunar holiday starts Friday, which should reduce soybean demand news for about a week.
- Poultry farmers in China are reducing bird inventories as the H7N9 virus (bird flu) spreads.
- Weather in South American is bearish prices, as Argentina gets beneficial rains and the Brazilian forecast is dry, aiding harvest progress.
- Early yields out of Mato Grasso continue to be very strong.
- Additional cases of the hog virus PEDv are being found on Canadian farms.
- Export sales estimates for this morning: 600 tmt to 1mmt for soybeans, 80 to 120 tmt for soybean meal, and 0 to 20 tmt for soybean oil.
- Wheat rebounded slightly in overnight trade after reaching a 42 month low yesterday.
- As temperatures moderate in wheat growing regions of the U.S. conversations of winter-kill fade.
- Rail logistics continue to struggle for wheat, especially in the north.
- Bangladesh bought 150 tmt of wheat from India.
- Japan bought 179,343 mt of milling wheat. Of the total, 91,247 mt was U.S. origin and the balance was Australian origin.
- Export sales estimate for this morning: 350 to 550 tmt.