Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Opening Marketing Comments 8-14-13

Markets are called mixed this morning behind a mixed overnight session.

Corn was up 1-2 cents, KC wheat was down 1-2, MPLS wheat was down 1, CBOT wheat was down 1, and soybeans were down 7-9 cents.  At 8:20 outside markets have the US dollar about unchanged, gold about unchanged, crude down 60 cents a barrel, and equity futures pointing towards a weaker start of about 25 points.

Yesterday we saw corn melt down and make new lows; after having had a report that had production and stocks well under the trade estimate on Monday.  Hard to pin point yesterdays weakness other then saying that big money just didn’t believe the USDA report; I seen a lot of comments that indicated they though the yield would increase.  I even seen one article of one company indicating a 53 field tour came up with 198 bu/acre.  As for the small bounce in the overnight session I would think that had something to do with the fact that we had made new lows.  We should see a little bounce on perhaps some fund profit taking along with perhaps some end user interest at lower selling.

The other thing we need to remember in regards to our prices and this latest USDA report is the fact that we still have plenty of corn.  Yes the production was much less then expectations, but a carryout of 1.8 is still over a billion bushels more than the present carryout.  The question we should ask our self is what level or carryout causes the funds to cover shorts?  When is the price cheap enough?  And what type of production or carryout do we need to get the funds to want to not only cover shorts but to go long.

Later this a.m. we will have ethanol numbers out; the market will be watching that.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

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