Grain Markets are called better behind a firmer overnight
session.
In the overnight session corn was up 5-7 cents, KC wheat was
up 2-4 cents, MPLS wheat was up a penny, CBOT wheat was up 4, and soybeans were
up 16-18 cents. At 8:00 outside markets
have the US dollar about unchanged with the cash index at 81.57, crude about
unchanged, gold up a buck, and the DOW futures are pointing towards a start of
the equity markets of about unchanged.
Weather market right now; yesterday the market looked at the
system that moved threw some key corn and soybean growing areas. Today the market seemed to be looking at the
very hot and dry forecasts that we have out there. The heat should help the behind crop continue
to catch up; but lack of moisture doesn’t help for yields.
Wheat basis feels very soft; but the good news is I do think
we will slowly start seeing some pro scales for spring wheat. I am not sure on winter wheat as we simply
seem to be over protein for what the mills are looking for. Plus there is plenty of 12.5-13.0 pro spring
wheat out there; maybe the mills will simply use that instead of HRW? One thing that could happen for protein
scales is we could end up seeing a better basis in the areas that have better
protein and less scales; but really might be a little early to know how that thing
is going to shake out. The bottom line
is overall basis for spring wheat felt soft yesterday; but higher proteins
actually felt a little better; winter wheat basis felt extremely ugly.
Old crop corn basis remains volatile; with some buyers
searching for some corn. The September
contract has really gained on the December corn contract in the past few
days. Many are starting to wonder if
this could be the year that the September contract finally goes off the board
above December for corn.
The one thing I would say about old crop corn is be
cautious; we all know how the game ends; we just don’t know when it ends. Also keep in mind that everyone every spot
isn’t able to take part in a squeeze. As
example rumor right now is that some are short some shuttles of corn; but in
our area I am not sure that shuttle quantities are out there and if they are
out there we couldn’t take part because of the fact that we have too many bins
full of wheat from spring wheat harvest.
So a short term squeeze might help those in corn country but we might not
be able to participate. The other thing
one has to watch is local end users; if our local end users are covered until
new crop then it won’t matter what their competitors is willing to pay; if they
don’t need it they are going to buy it just to buy it. Bottom line is caution should be used with
old crop corn. We have moved into a very
high stakes poker game.
From CHS Hedging in regards to Pro Farmer
“Pro Farmer tour estimates corn yields in Iowa at 171.94
b/a., above the 3-year average of 157.09 b/a…….Minnesota corn yield is
estimated at 181.09 b/a., compared to 172.53 b/a for the 3-year average…….. pod
counts in Iowa at 927.30 pods versus 999.80 last year……3 year average is
1,189.74 pods in a 3’ by 3’ square. The pod count in Minnesota totaled
869.42, below the 3-year average of 1,099.44 pods…….how accurate are pod counts
at this stage in regards to final yield?”
Results should be this afternoon at 1:30 for the Pro Farmer
Tour.
Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for
you.
Thanks
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