Friday, August 23, 2013

opening grain market comments 8-23-13

Grain Markets are called better behind a firmer overnight session.

In the overnight session corn was up 5-7 cents, KC wheat was up 2-4 cents, MPLS wheat was up a penny, CBOT wheat was up 4, and soybeans were up 16-18 cents.  At 8:00 outside markets have the US dollar about unchanged with the cash index at 81.57, crude about unchanged, gold up a buck, and the DOW futures are pointing towards a start of the equity markets of about unchanged.

Weather market right now; yesterday the market looked at the system that moved threw some key corn and soybean growing areas.  Today the market seemed to be looking at the very hot and dry forecasts that we have out there.  The heat should help the behind crop continue to catch up; but lack of moisture doesn’t help for yields.

Wheat basis feels very soft; but the good news is I do think we will slowly start seeing some pro scales for spring wheat.  I am not sure on winter wheat as we simply seem to be over protein for what the mills are looking for.  Plus there is plenty of 12.5-13.0 pro spring wheat out there; maybe the mills will simply use that instead of HRW?  One thing that could happen for protein scales is we could end up seeing a better basis in the areas that have better protein and less scales; but really might be a little early to know how that thing is going to shake out.  The bottom line is overall basis for spring wheat felt soft yesterday; but higher proteins actually felt a little better; winter wheat basis felt extremely ugly.

Old crop corn basis remains volatile; with some buyers searching for some corn.  The September contract has really gained on the December corn contract in the past few days.  Many are starting to wonder if this could be the year that the September contract finally goes off the board above December for corn. 

The one thing I would say about old crop corn is be cautious; we all know how the game ends; we just don’t know when it ends.  Also keep in mind that everyone every spot isn’t able to take part in a squeeze.  As example rumor right now is that some are short some shuttles of corn; but in our area I am not sure that shuttle quantities are out there and if they are out there we couldn’t take part because of the fact that we have too many bins full of wheat from spring wheat harvest.  So a short term squeeze might help those in corn country but we might not be able to participate.  The other thing one has to watch is local end users; if our local end users are covered until new crop then it won’t matter what their competitors is willing to pay; if they don’t need it they are going to buy it just to buy it.  Bottom line is caution should be used with old crop corn.  We have moved into a very high stakes poker game.

From CHS Hedging in regards to Pro Farmer
“Pro Farmer tour estimates corn yields in Iowa at 171.94 b/a.,  above the 3-year average of 157.09 b/a…….Minnesota corn yield is estimated at 181.09 b/a., compared to 172.53 b/a for the 3-year average…….. pod counts in Iowa at 927.30 pods versus 999.80 last year……3 year average is 1,189.74 pods in a 3’ by 3’ square.  The pod count in Minnesota totaled 869.42, below the 3-year average of 1,099.44 pods…….how accurate are pod counts at this stage in regards to final yield?”

Results should be this afternoon at 1:30 for the Pro Farmer Tour.

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.


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