Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Opening Grain Market Comments 8-20-2013

Markets are called mixed to weaker this a.m. behind a mixed to weaker overnight session.

In the overnight session corn was down 6 cents, KC wheat was down 1, MPLS wheat was unchanged, CBOT wheat was down 5 cents, and soybeans were down 10-12 cents.  At 8:10 outside markets have the US Dollar weaker by 300 ticks or so with the cash index at 80.92, gold is unchanged, crude is down 1.50, and the DOW futures are pointing towards a positive start of about 15 points.

Looks like a little correct after yesterdays very strong day in the row crops.  The strength came from hot and dry weather forecasts, along with some short covering in the corn market.  Some are questioning if we have over done things to the upside; in particular soybeans.  That tends to happen in weather markets and markets in general were the funds are involved.  Keep in mind just a few short weeks ago most of the market had threw in the towel for soybeans; with some thinking that we might be headed for single digits.  Now many are starting to talk about $14 and $15 soybeans…… perhaps using a little caution as everyone is getting bulled up is warranted.

We did have crop conditions out yesterday afternoon and they showed a decline in conditions; maybe a high more than expected.  Here is the CHS Hedging Recap of the conditions

Stats Canada will have numbers out tomorrow.  The market is looking for increases versus last year for both canola and wheat.

The other big news hitting the wires yesterday was the Pro Farmer Crop Tour.  Day 1 of the tour saw Ohio corn yield at 171.6 bu/acre versus the last USDA estimate of 172 bu/acre.  Last years the tour put Ohio at 110.5 but the actual Ohio yield came in at 123.  Over the last 3 years the tour has been about 4 bu under the USDA for OH.

For South Dakota the tour had 161.8 bu/acre, over the last 3 years the tour has averaged about 3-4 bushels under the actual USDA numbers.

For soybeans the Pro Farmer Crop tour put the average soybean pod count in a 3’ x 3’ area in OH at 1284 versus the 3 year average of 1163; while South Dakota had an average bean count of 1,015 versus the average of 984.

Sorry that comments have been hit and miss and short lately; but things have been very busy lately with wheat harvest and producer marketing in general. 

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

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