Friday, June 21, 2013

Opening Grain Market Comments 6-21-2013

Markets are called mixed this a.m. behind a mixed overnight session.  Outside markets are more stable they the past couple of days so hopefully they don’t turn into a reason to see pressure in the grains.

When the overnight session ended July corn was down 5 cents a bushel, KC wheat was about unchanged, MPLS wheat was unchanged to down 2, CBOT wheat was off a penny, July soybeans were up 2, and November soybeans were down 6 cents.  At 8:10 outside markets have crude about unchanged, gold is up 6 bucks or 24 bucks above its overnight low, the US dollar is up a couple hundred points with the cash index at 82.16, and it looks like a small bounce at least for the start of the stock market; with the DOW futures up about 50-60 points.

Not a lot of new news out this a.m. for price direction.  I did see some adjustments from some for the crop sizes in different places around the world.  Coceral estimate for EU corn crop is up to 66.1 MMT from it’s previous estimate of 64.4 MMT.  They pegged the EU soft weat crop at 130.7 MMT; which is a 3 MMT increase from their last estimate.

Abiove slightly lowered their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 81.6 MMT versus 82.1 MMT previously and the USDA at 82.0 MMT.  The Buenos Aires Cereals exchange left their estimate of Argentine soybean crop unchanged at 48.5  MMT which is well below the USDA estimate  of 51.0 MMT

This afternoon we will have the USDA monthly cattle on Feed report.

US House failed to pass the Farm Bill.

July options expire today.

Next week it will be about weather and the USDA report.  I can’t tell right this second what weather would be super bullish or bearish.  Lots of different local spots looking for different weather to help development.  As for our area I am hoping we get moisture with some heat; let’s just keep the hail away. 

Technically the bean market not holding the 15.00 level on the July contract is a little scary.  The corn price action also has to be a black eye on the technical side; especially for new crop December corn.  It once again tested the 5.70-5.80 (which means 5.00 to 5.20 off the combine corn) range in the past few days; but once again failed to break above.  What will it take to break above?

Please give us a call if there is anything we can do for you.

No comments:

Post a Comment